Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

With three minutes and 10 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter yesterday, the Eagles were trailing 15-24. They elected to attempt a 2-point try. The attempt failed. The score remained 15-24. If the game didn't virtually end right there, then it certainly ended when the Eagles missed a field goal with 13 seconds remaining. The Bears won 24-15.

The Jets did a similar thing in Week 8 vs Cincinnati.

3-2-CIN 5 (14:21) B.Hall left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Fields rushes right tackle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Timeout at 14:17.
NYJ 24 CIN 31, 6 plays, 66 yards, 3:17 drive, 0:43 elapsed

The difference in these games? The time remaining in them when these touchdowns were scored.

Eagles 15, Bears 24, 3:10 remaining
Jets 22, Bengals 31, 14:17 remaining

There are people online stating that it is not debatable to attempt a 2-point try when trailing by nine points.
There are people online stating that it is not debatable to attempt an extra point kick when trailing by nine points.

My stance on it? It is all about the time remaining in the game. I think the Eagles trying for two at that spot in the game yesterday was not the better move than trying the extra point kick.

The pro-2-point try at 15-24 people say that it gives you more information because then you know what you need to do. "We are down nine points so we know we have to score multiple times in the remaining three minutes and 10 seconds."

Well, I actually knew what you need to do before the game started. That was the information I would need as a coach. Either have regulation end in a tie to force overtime or, better yet, with my team having more points than the opposing team. It is good to know that information going into a game.

The pro-2-point try at 15-24 people propose that it would be bad to be trailing 22-24 and be forced to try a 2-point try on the final play of the game. Oh yeah? I would like that! It surely beats attempting a field goal with 13 seconds left while trailing 15-24.

I dont believe in chasing points till you have to. Had the Eagles gotten it, fine, but they didnt. They should have kicked the extra point, knowing they could go for two IF they could get the ball back with a chance to tie. Like you said, once they missed, it was basically over. This was discussed about the Jets even in the first game against Pitts.

You would think with the Brotherly Shove, the Eagles would have got it though.

I had forgotten that the Eagles missed an extra point. That had to have factored in Sirianni's decision ...

JWL wrote: ↑Sat Nov 29, 2025 12:04 pm The pro-2-point try at 15-24 people say that it gives you more information

That "more information" is you're up sh!+ creek. If you want to know it now, rather than later, that's fine. But if you kick it, you are not in sh!+ creek until you miss the 2 pt after final TD.

My issue is the attitude online. This is one where there is not a real definitive right answer. But there are some that are berating each side and calling this a no-brainer. And IMO, the analytics people are a bit more on the aggressive side. IMO, it's 50-50.

My question is, why assume the final TD will be with 0:00 on the clock. Yes, coaches play it that way but maybe they shouldn't but sometimes they cannot control it. Maybe because of downs, you have to score TD on 4th down with time left. You can still do the onside harm no foul. And you *could* even coach it that way. Leave some time in case you miss 2 pt. Yes, I know, Mahomes and 13 seconds. But life has risks.

I have not played all scenarios out, but I could be wrong but this is a coin toss, given some intangibles ...

(1) a missed 2-pointer you need a TD, PAT and likely results in the need for an onside kick, a completed pass and a long FG.
(2) a made 2-pointer and you are sitting pretty, relatively.
(3) a PAT puts you down by 8. You need a TD and 2 pt.

Scenario 1 -You need 3 successful football plays after a hypothetical TD
Scenario 3 -you need 1 successful football play after a hypothetical TD

Scenario 3 is not that bad, and if you do get the hypothetical TD with some time left, you can
still try the onside, completed pass, long FG.

Who says when you kick the PAT in scenario 1 that there will be time on the clock?
Maybe scenario 1, you have to be ultra aggressive because you have the "info" and you are not a team that
excels in that kind of 2 offense.

Maybe scenario 3, there is enough time, timeouts, 2 minute warning that you can still run YOUR offense
'your normal non "chicken with your head cut off" 2 minute offense.

Am I missing something?

Bottom line for me is this does not seem like an analytics hill to die on and there is a pile of stuff online about it among big names...Greg Olsen, JJ Watt, etc.

per Scott Kacsmar

@ScottKacsmar
Here's all 31 NFL teams that successfully manufactured multiple scoring drives in final 5:00 to win since 2001.

11 of them needed an onside kick recovery (OSKR)

Only 7 teams have done this since 2015 (2 had OSKR).

But note that 25/31 got started with at least 3:37 left.

All 6 who got started in the final 3:00 needed to recover an onside kick.

Eagles made their choice at 3:10. That's not enough time to risk it.

I was surprised the Eagles went for two down nine.

I would have kicked the extra point to make it an eight point contest.... never go for two unless you have to, right?

And with the amount of time left (~5 minutes), there was no way the Eagles would have gotten the ball back twice to score 9+ points.