Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

I did a post mentioning the 85th percentile and higher by score% differential since 1941.

Here is the other end of the spectrum: The teams on the 15th percentile and lower by the metric.

For those who didn't see my older posts where I revealed all the raw data, it is calculated as follows:

1. Calculate the following formula for every team's offense and defense individually: ((2*Passing TD's + Rushing TD's)+ Field Goals Made)/((2*Passing TD's+ Rushing TD's)+ Field Goals Attempted + Punts + Turnovers + Failed Fourth Down Conversions).

This formula will essentially give you roughly the number of offensive points per drive. Drives that ended with the quarterback kneeling or that were ended by a half are not included in the denominator, and scores that aren't offensive aren't included in the numerator.

2. Subtract the total that the defense allows from what the offense produces.

3. Look up the schedule the team played and calculate the average strength of schedule that the team played during its regular season. If it's harder than average (looking at you 1975 Browns), then an adjustment will be made up, otherwise an adjustment will be made down (looking at you 1975 Vikings).

Without further ado, the 15th percentile and lower in each NFL season since 1941 (before which point, there are no estimates of opponent punt totals per team):

An asterisk (*) indicates the team that ranked dead last by the metric and is therefore on the 0th percentile that season.

1941: Rams*, Steelers
1942: *Lions, Rams
1943: *Dodgers, Cardinals
1944: *Card-Pitt, Yanks
1945: *Steelers, Cardinals
1946: *Lions, Seahawks, Yanks
1947: *Colts, Dodgers, Yanks
1948: *Yanks, Rockets, Lions
1949: *Bulldogs, Packers, Colts
1950: *Colts, Packers
1951: *Yanks, Packers
1952: *Texans, Cardinals
1953: *Colts, Cardinals
1954: *Redskins, Cardinals
1955: *49ers, Lions
1956: *Eagles, 49ers
1957: *Cardinals, Packers
1958: *Packers, Eagles
1959: *Redskins, Cardinals
1960: *Cowboys, Redskins, Broncos, Bears
1961: *Redskins, Raiders, Broncos, Cowboys
1962: *Titans, Raiders, Vikings, Rams
1963: *Jets, Rams, Broncos, 49ers
1964: *Broncos, Giants, Bears, Steelers
1965: *Steelers, Giants, Oilers, Broncos
1966: *Falcons, Broncos, Giants, Dolphins
1967: *Falcons, Dolphins, Saints, Broncos
1968: *Falcons, Eagles, Bills, Patriots
1969: *Steelers, Bills, Cardinals, Dolphins
1970: *Patriots, Bills, Saints, Steelers
1971: *Bills, Giants, Oilers, Patriots
1972: *Eagles, Patriots, Saints, Oilers
1973: *Oilers, Chargers, Bears, Saints
1974: *Falcons, Bears, Colts, Giants
1975: *Saints, Bears, Chargers, Browns
1976: *Buccaneers, Seahawks, Jets, Falcons, Bills
1977: *Buccaneers, Bills, Packers, Saints, Chiefs
1978: *Colts, 49ers, Bills, Falcons, Chiefs
1979: *Lions, Falcons, Giants, Packers, Colts
1980: *Saints, Giants, Packers, Jets, 49ers
1981: *Colts, Saints, Oilers, Browns, Cardinals
1982: *Colts, Oilers, Broncos, Rams, Bears
1983: *Oilers, Buccaneers, Colts, Eagles, Bills
1984: *Oilers, Bills, Colts, Vikings, Falcons
1985: *Bills, Cardinals, Falcons, Oilers, Buccaneers
1986: *Buccaneers, Colts, Cardinals, Packers, Bills
1987: *Falcons, Lions, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Chargers
1988: *Chargers, Cowboys, Falcons, Lions, Steelers
1989: *Cowboys, Jets, Falcons, Cardinals, Patriots
1990: *Patriots, Browns, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Jets
1991: *Colts, Buccaneers, Patriots, Rams, Bengals
1992: *Patriots, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Jets, Colts
1993: *Colts, Bengals, Rams, Buccaneers, Redskins
1994: *Oilers, Buccaneers, Redskins, Bengals, Rams
1995: *Jaguars, Jets, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Browns
1996: *Saints, Jets, Falcons, Cardinals, Rams
1997: *Chargers, Cardinals, Saints, Bears, Raiders
1998: *Eagles, Bengals, Ravens, Cardinals, Bears
1999: *Browns, Bengals, 49ers, Cardinals, Saints
2000: *Browns, Cardinals, Bengals, Chargers, Falcons
2001: *Bills, Panthers, Lions, Cowboys, Vikings
2002: *Cardinals, Texans, Lions, Bengals, Cowboys
2003: *Cardinals, Giants, Texans, Raiders, Lions
2004: *49ers, Bears, Cowboys, Rams, Saints
2005: *49ers, Texans, Jets, Saints, Titans
2006: *Raiders, Buccaneers, 49ers, Browns, Texans
2007: *Rams, 49ers, Dolphins, Ravens, Falcons
2008: *Lions, Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks, Bengals
2009: *Rams, Lions, Raiders, Buccaneers, Browns
2010: *Cardinals, Panthers, Bills, Broncos, Seahawks
2011: *Rams, Colts, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Broncos
2012: *Chiefs, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders, Eagles
2013: *Jaguars, Redskins, Raiders, Browns, Texans
2014: *Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Buccaneers, Bears
2015: *Titans, Browns, 49ers, Dolphins, Buccaneers
2016: *Bears, 49ers, Rams, Browns, Jets
2017: *Browns, Giants, Colts, Dolphins, Texans
2018: *Cardinals, Dolphins, Raiders, Jets, Jaguars
2019: *Dolphins, Redskins, Giants, Jets, Bengals
2020: *Jaguars, Jets, Bengals, Lions, Broncos
2021: *Texans, Jaguars, Jets, Lions, Bears
2022: *Colts, Texans, Cardinals, Broncos, Bears
2023: *Panthers, Commanders, Giants, Patriots, Falcons
2024: *Panthers, Browns, Jaguars, Patriots, Giants

A few fun facts about the teams in the bottom 15% of Score% Differential in their respective year:

1. Since 1941, there have been five teams that were bottom 15% by the metric and still managed to make the playoffs:

1978 Falcons
1998 Cardinals
2004 Rams
2010 Seahawks
2011 Broncos

2. A further five teams missed the playoffs, but did finish .500 or higher:

1965 Giants
1983 Bills
1987 Chargers
1992 Colts
2004 Saints

3. 81 out of 84 teams that finished with the worst record in the league in their year were in the lower 15% of score% differential (Should clarify that in the event that multiple teams tied for the league's worst record, I give the team with the lowest raw Score% differential the label of "worst team in the league").

4. All told, 294 out of the 351 teams (83.76%) that were on the 15th percentile or lower in their year had a win percentage of under 35%.

So it feels that the bottom teams were a bit more in line with their ranking statistically than the teams at the top.

All told, 252 of the 351 teams on the 85th percentile or higher were also on the 85th percentile or higher in their year by regular season record, and that was the case with 271 teams with the 15th percentile or lower.

Two things that first come to mind...neither the '81 Pats (who you just mentioned elsewhere, Fever) nor '69 Bears are the bottom-15%.

The former of these two have basically been called a "good" 2-14 team. Statistically the '81 Pats were noticeably better than their 2-14 counterpart''Toilet Bowl' rival, the Colts. Yet, ironically, Baltimore sweeps them. The first of NE's two wins in '81 was against Levy's Chiefs who were in midst of their 6-2 start (finishing at 9-7). Their second win was against Houston who, FWIW, were 4-2 going in (very last breath of 'Luv Ya Blue' despite Bum no longer present). Another thing to support the '81 Pats as being a "good" 2-14 team are the five winning seasons to left of them, and the six-out-of-seven winning seasons to the right (8-8 in '83).

Taking a look, Fever, at your original top-to-bottom rankings each year of each decade, these Pats were the TENTH-worst in '81!!

https://profootballresearchers.com/foru ... 397#p58397

Four 7-9 and three 6-10 teams beneath them! So weirdly this team had the #9 offense with 5.5 Y/P, defense giving up 5.3!


As for 1969, two NFL teams (Pit & StL) and two AFL teams (Buf & Mia) take up your bottom 15%. I see the Eagles are the next one down, and then you got the Bears next as 6th-worst overall in both leagues.

https://profootballresearchers.com/foru ... 394#p58394

Bears had the #5 defense out of 16 NFL teams! Not quite as the case with the '81 Pats but you'll see not-bad or winning seasons to the left of that 1-13 campaign, and back-to-back 6-8 seasons to the right. The Bears actually played Pittsburgh in '69 mid-season and squashed them, 38-7!

Bears & Steelers were the two 1-13 NFL teams in '69. The next worst NFL team, record wise, was San Fran at 4-8-2. Next worst record? The aforementioned Cardinals & Eagles at 4-9-1 (end regular season OT; bring back ties, please).

In the AFL that year...no 1 or 2-win teams! The worst record was Miami at 3-10-1. Buffalo, and Boston, the next-worst at 4-10 each.