Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

In a few recent posts, I've mentioned my Score% stat and the percentiles that teams were on.

If we assume that you are the team that is highest by the stat and you are at percentile 100, and if are dead last you are at percentile 0 and every team in between is an equidistant increase or decrease in accordance with how many teas are in the league (ex: last season's runner up was on percentile 96.77), then the following teams are on percentile 85 or higher since 1941:

Teams with an asterisk (*) are percentile 100

1941: *Bears, Packers
1942: *Bears, Packers
1943: *Bears, Packers
1944: *Eagles, Giants

1945: *Eagles, Rams
1946: *Browns, 49ers, Giants
1947: *Browns, Bears, Yankees
1948: *Eagles, 49ers, Browns
1949: *Eagles, 49ers, Browns

1950: *Browns, Eagles
1951: *Browns, Rams
1952: *Lions, Browns
1953: *Browns, 49ers
1954: *Browns, Lions

1955: *Browns, Giants
1956: *Bears, Lions
1957: *Browns, Colts
1958: *Colts, Giants
1959: *Giants, Colts

1960: *Texans, Browns, Packers, Cardinals
1961: *Oilers, Packers, Chargers, Giants
1962: *Packers, Texans, Lions, Oilers
1963: *Colts, Lions, Chargers, Bears
1964: *Colts, Packers, Bills, Browns

1965: *Bears, Colts, Packers, Chargers
1966: *Cowboys, Packers, Chiefs, Browns
1967: *Colts, Raiders, Rams, Chiefs
1968: *Colts, Chiefs, Jets, Cowboys
1969: *Vikings, Chiefs, Cowboys, Raiders

1970: *Vikings, Lions, Cowboys, Rams
1971: *Colts, Dolphins, Cowboys, Rams
1972: *Dolphins, Steelers, Raiders, Packers
1973: *Rams, Dolphins, Cowboys, Steelers
1974: *Redskins, Raiders, Dolphins, Vikings

1975: *Steelers, Rams, Dolphins, Vikings
1976: *Steelers, Colts, Rams, Vikings, Raiders
1977: *Rams, Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys, Dolphins
1978: *Cowboys, Steelers, Dolphins, Chargers, Patriots
1979: *Steelers, Chargers, Dolphins, Patriots, Cowboys

1980: *Eagles, Falcons, Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots
1981: *Eagles, Cowboys, Bengals, 49ers, Lions
1982: *Jets, Cowboys, Chargers, Dolphins, Raiders
1983: *Redskins, Dolphins, 49ers, Raiders, Cowboys
1984: *49ers, Dolphins, Seahawks, Redskins, Broncos

1985: *Bears, Jets, 49ers, Dolphins, Giants
1986: *Bears, Giants, 49ers, Vikings, Seahawks
1987: *49ers, Browns, Saints, Broncos, Colts
1988: *Vikings, Rams, Bills, Bears, Bengals
1989: *49ers, Broncos, Giants, Bengals, Eagles

1990: *Giants, Redskins, Oilers, 49ers, Chiefs
1991: *Redskins, Saints, 49ers, Chiefs, Oilers
1992: *49ers, Saints, Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings
1993: *Cowboys, 49ers, Oilers, Giants, Packers
1994: *49ers, Cowboys, Browns, Steelers, Packers

1995: *49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Lions, Packers
1996: *Packers, 49ers, Panthers, Broncos, Steelers
1997: *Broncos, Packers, 49ers, Chiefs, Jaguars
1998: *Vikings, Jets, Broncos, Falcons, 49ers
1999: *Rams, Bills, Jaguars, Colts, Raiders

2000: *Titans, Ravens, Raiders, Colts, Dolphins
2001: *Rams, Steelers, Bears, Eagles, 49ers
2002: *Eagles, Raiders, Buccaneers, Falcons, Titans
2003: *Packers, Colts, Rams, Ravens, Broncos
2004: *Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Jets

2005: *Colts, Broncos, Steelers, Chargers, Giants
2006: *Patriots, Chargers, Jaguars, Ravens, Bears
2007: *Patriots, Colts, Jaguars, Chargers, Cowboys
2008: *Giants, Steelers, Ravens, Eagles, Patriots
2009: *Patriots, Jets, Packers, Vikings, Cowboys

2010: *Patriots, Packers, Steelers, Chargers, Falcons
2011: *Packers, 49ers, Saints, Patriots, Ravens
2012: *Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos, Falcons
2013: *Seahawks, Broncos, 49ers, Saints, Panthers
2014: *Seahawks, Patriots, Packers, Broncos, Colts

2015: *Seahawks, Panthers, Bengals, Patriots, Cardinals
2016: *Patriots, Falcons, Cowboys, Seahawks, Steelers
2017: *Patriots, Eagles, Vikings, Rams, Saints
2018: *Saints, Rams, Ravens, Bears, Chiefs
2019: *Ravens, Patriots, Chiefs, 49ers, Saints

2020: *Buccaneers, Ravens, Bills, Saints, Packers
2021: *Bills, Patriots, Chiefs, Cowboys, Buccaneers
2022: *Bills, 49ers, Eagles, Bengals, Cowboys
2023: *Ravens, 49ers, Cowboys, Bills, Chiefs
2024: *Lions, Ravens, Packers, Eagles, Bills

A few fun facts:

1. The only losing team (out of 351 since 1941) since 1941 to be on the 85th percentile or higher by my metric of score% differential are the 1963 Lions who were simultaneously 5-8-1, and outscored their opposition by 61 points; including winning four games by over 20 points while losing five games by one score or less.

2. Since the 1978 season when the NFL playoffs went to ten teams and have remained at leas that many, only 13 teams (out of 235 since 1978) have failed to qualify for the playoffs in spite of sitting on at least the 85th percentile by score% differential relative to the league in their season.

Those teams were the following:
1978 Chargers
1979 Patriots
1980 Patriots
1981 Lions
1986 Vikings
1986 Seahawks
1989 Bengals
1991 49ers
1999 Raiders
2005 Chargers
2006 Jaguars
2008 Patriots
2010 Chargers

And with recent expansions to the playoff format, it seems highly unlikely that a top five team statistically will miss the playoffs entirely going forward.

3. All told, the 85th percentile and higher includes 66 teams that won a Super Bowl or championship; including 12 such teams in a row from 1989 to 2000. In addition to the champions, a further 55 teams made the Super Bowl or championship game but lost it, and another 67 made but lost the conference championship game (or a tiebreaker to determine a spot in the title game), so 188 of the 351 teams that were at least on the 85th percentile made a conference championship game or an equivalent of one (53.56%).

This percentage since the Super Bowl started in 1966 is slightly lower (49.82%) 142 such teams out of 285.

4. Since the Super Bowl era started in 1966, the following conference championship games or equivalents featured no teams that were on the 85th percentile or higher in the regular season before it:

1967 NFL
1970 AFC
1972 NFC
1979 AFC
1986 AFC
1987 NFC
1990 AFC
1991 AFC
1992 AFC
1993 AFC
1995 AFC
1996 AFC
2000 NFC
2003 NFC
2004 NFC
2005 NFC
2007 NFC
2021 NFC

Notably, there's two stretches where one conference had almost no top teams statistically going that far: The AFC from 1990-1996, and the NFC from 2000-2007.

In particular the AFC stretch had only the 1994 Steelers in the years between the Broncos Super Bowl teams.