Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

I've mentioned the new voting process a few times and noted how the class sizes could drop this year, both in modern and in senior/coach/contributor. Here's how that can happen.

MODERN
In the past, voters brought 15 names into the room, pared to 10 and then 5, and then did the up-down vote on each of the remaining 5, with guys needing 80% "yes" votes for induction. Because they are not weighed against each other at that point, induction is a rubber stamp; the voters have not rejected a modern-era final 5 since Carson and Irvin in 2005.

This year, they're going to go from 15 to 10 to 7, and then voters are going to vote for 5 of the 7, with players needing 80% of THAT vote for induction. There is no final approval vote, meaning the actual final vote pits players against each other.

The new bylaws state that the modern group must elect a minimum of three players. But mathematically, the 50 voters could end up with zero players getting 80%, which is 40 votes. Let's say the final 7 is Gates, Jared Allen, Holt, Kuechly, Wayne, Woodson, Eric Allen. Very realistic group. Here's how none of them could hit 80%:

38 votes: Gates (76%)
37 votes: J. Allen (74%)
35 votes apiece: E. Allen, Holt, Kuechly, Wayne, Woodson

In that scenario, there is no additional vote. The Hall would run a series of tiebreakers until they push three players into the pool. Let's call it Gates, J. Allen and Holt.

That exact math is unlikely for a few reasons, one being that I think nearly everyone will vote for Gates. So let's say Gates gets all 50, let's say voters like Jared Allen with no other pass rusher, and let's say they like Kuechly with no other linebacker. But let's say they are still split on Holt and Wayne, and they're split on the two DBs. This could happen:

50 votes: Gates (100%)
45 votes apiece: J. Allen, Kuechly (90%)
35 votes apiece: Holt, Wayne (70%)
25 votes: E. Allen (50%)
15 votes: Woodson (30%)

Now you look at that and there's a clearly defined top 5: Gates, J. Allen, Kuechly, Holt and Wayne. But only three of those five — or three of seven overall — get in, because only three were over 80%.

SENIOR / COACH / CONTRIBUTOR

I'll split this into its own, but it breaks down the same as modern. The three Blue Ribbon Committees will create a group of five: 3 seniors, 1 coach, 1 contributor. They will send that group of five to the full selection committee. Voters will elect 3 of the 5, with a minimum of one.

So let's say this is the group:

Sterling Sharpe
Roger Craig
Ken Anderson
Tom Coughlin
Robert Kraft

If voters collectively decide to vote for the contributor, the coach and one senior, then at best, you're getting one senior. But what if they can't agree on the senior? You could see this:

50 votes apiece: Coughlin, Kraft (100%)
30 votes: Sharpe (60%)
11 votes: Craig (22%)
9 votes: Anderson (18%)

Again, that scenario shows a clear cut top 3 of Coughlin, Kraft and Sharpe. But with Sharpe 10 votes shy of the 40 he needs for 80%, no senior gets elected.

Or maybe the selection committee isn't in love with Coughlin (or Holmgren, or Shanahan, or whichever coach is the one). If 11 of the votes for Coughlin in the above scenario go to Craig, then only Kraft gets elected, with Coughlin at 39 votes, Sharpe at 30, Craig at 22 and Anderson at 9.

If you add that to the scenario I laid out above in modern, you could end up with this Class of 2025:

Jared Allen
Antonio Gates
Luke Kuechly
Robert Kraft

Now, it certainly seems like voters could just talk in advance to reach some consensus and make sure they aren't splitting their vote. But the bylaws appear to squash that, stating that voters must "refrain from any pre-meeting collusion that attempts to secure votes for a candidate or candidates in a quid pro quo manner."

Without any sort of communication and planning, the odds of smaller classes — whether in modern, senior/coach/contributor or both — are much greater than in past years.

Lets wait and see if that happens before we know for sure

To be clear, I think Sterling Sharpe will get elected this year. I think he's easily the strongest candidate, and that will be especially true when you look at him in a group of three seniors. I think Kraft has a great shot as the lone contributor. But if there is a split decision about the final two seniors + the coach, then you could have Sharpe and Kraft and no one else. Or, if voters decide to do a "1-1-1" approach, then you'll have three from that group but only one senior, which is certainly not the preferred outcome of many of us.

The one that will be a mess is the modern, where reaching a five-man consensus will be tricky. That's what makes the inclusion of Eli in the 7 so damaging. I don't think he has 40 votes. But he might have 11 votes that could knock a 5-man class into a 4-man class.

Food for thought!

rewing84 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 9:25 pm Lets wait and see if that happens before we know for sure

Oh absolutely. We don't know for sure. The point is that the voting changes take a basically surefire 5-man modern class and vastly increase the chances that we'll be under that.

100% agreed glad we can have an conversation without arguing or disagreeing at all

Yep!

ok let me ask this question lets say they pick 3 really great seniors to go up against kraft and lets say holmgren what would happen then

rewing84 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 10:07 pm ok let me ask this question lets say they pick 3 really great seniors to go up against kraft and lets say holmgren what would happen then

Pick your three best seniors, whoever you think that is. The selection committee will have to elect three from the group of five — the three seniors, coach and contributor. So they could elect all three seniors and leave out Holmgren and Kraft. Or most voters could try to do 1-1-1 and not agree on the senior and end up without a senior. We don't know.

ok appreciate the additional information and feedback i can see your logic 100%