This year's Heisman watch

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JameisBrownston
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Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2023 2:48 am

This year's Heisman watch

Post by JameisBrownston »

...is wild. Neither top candidate is a QB, and neither is on a team that is even sniffing the expanded playoffs. In the blue (ha) corner, we have Ashton Jeanty, a RB from a Mountain West school who probably needs to keep up the absurd pace he's currently on to not fall out of it. In the red corner, we have Travis Hunter, who has been tabbed as a Heisman darkhorse for years due to his Ohtanian (move over Babe) skillset. Barring injury, I'd think he's the more likely bet, just because he can win it without being dominant because he's unique. He just needs to be great enough at what he does. Jeanty probably has to break at least one of Barry's rushing records, and it's too early to say he can. Leading the QBs, and the playoff contenders, is The U's Cam Ward, who is leading CFB in passing yards and TDs and still sits firmly in third place.

As for the Draft outlook, mocks suddenly seem to be pushing Hunter hard as the #1, which was definitely not the case at the start of the season. I haven't seen one with him going lower than 2 in a while. I'm pretty sure this would be the first time a WR has gone #1 overall and the first time a defensive back has gone #1 overall. This trend also leads me to believe that he's going to be playing both ways (albeit likely not every snap like he is now), because if he's getting picked #1, that team clearly doesn't just want the receiver or just the corner. Othwrwise, he doesn't justify the investment over a QB. I suspect that intel leaking out of FOs indicating he will be given run on both sides is likely what is pushing this trend toward Hunter #1 in mainstream media mocks.

Meanwhile, Jeanty is getting mocked mostly in the 10-20 range of R1, with the knowledge that he could push up into the Saquon realms if he keeps going this hard, and no one seems to know what QBs are going where; I've seen Shedeur, Ward, Quinn Ewers, Carson Beck, Jalen Milroe, and more all going in R1, mostly starting in the 5-10 range (a lot of defensive guys going top 5), but mocks disagree on which ones make it in and I haven’t seen one with all of them yet. Given that we had a similar situation this year and all of them ultimately did go in R1 (the top 12 no less), though, I'm expecting a repeat. QBs are too highly valued by teams today, even ones who are projects (Richardson) or don't project massive upside (Nix). A lot of the 2025 QBs look like that, but I don't see that stopping teams who are throwing Aidan O'Connell out there from YOLOing them all off the board in the first 15 picks.
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