104th season, Week 18 preview
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 12:01 pm
Wellp, this is it! The last week of the 104th N.F.L. regular season. Some players are being rested, some teams have something tangible to play for, and some teams already know that they have this last game and then they are going to prepare for the off-season.
BAL vs. PIT (Saturday) - the Ravens have locked up the #1 seed (and first round bye that goes along with that) and are resting some players (including starting QB Lamar Jackson) as a result. PIT doesn't have to win today to secure a playoff spot but they'll need less help from other teams around the league if they do. Either way they DO need a little help to get in but thanks to last Sunday's road win over SEA they kept H.C. Mike Tomlin's record of never having had a losing season intact, so there is that.
Indy vs. HOU (Saturday night) - the playoff scenario for each of these teams is remarkably similar: win and they're in (as division champs with help from last-place TEN on Sunday), lose and they're out. A "pre-playoffs playoff game," if you will.
CIN vs. CLE - the Bengals were eliminated from the playoff chase with last week's loss to the A.F.C. West champs, the Kansas City Chiefs, while CLE is locked into the #5 seed in the A.F.C. playoff picture (and are therefore resting some players). Nothing really on the line in this one except state of Ohio bragging rights.
'N'awlins' vs. ATL - similar to Indy vs. HOU from Saturday except that only the Saints have a path to make the playoffs as a wild card team. ATL gets in (as division champs!) with a win AND a win by CAR over T.B. Otherwise, the Falcons' season ends on Sunday.
TEN vs. JAX - LOTS of permutations in this one (well, for JAX, anyway). The simplest one is if the Jaguars beat the last-place Titans. If they do then they'll go into the playoffs as A.F.C. South champions. If they DON'T win on Sunday then they can still make the playoffs, but only with quite a bit of help and only as the #7 seed.
CAR vs. T.B. - Pretty simple: if the Buccaneers win they're in as division champs. If they lose they're out. There are possibilities for them if, somehow, they and CAR tie on Sunday, but w/ a tie the Bucs would then need help to make the playoffs and if they were to make the playoffs under that scenario, it would be as the #7 seed.
DET vs. MIN - the Lions have won the N.F.C. North for the first time, ever (the last time the DET Lions won their division it was called the N.F.C. Central and the league had 4 fewer teams in it than it does now), so for them Sunday's outcomes affect only their seeding for the playoffs (not a huge difference - they'll be either the #2 or the #3 seed in the N.F.C. playoffs this year). MIN, on the other hand, can get in only with a "W" and quite a bit of help from other teams in the league. Right now their chances of getting in, from what I've read, stand at < 5%.
N.E. vs. the NYJ - Nothing really on the line in this one except N.E.'s LONNNG winning streak over the Jets (right now at 15 games) and "if this is Bill Belichick's last game as H.C. of the N.E. Patriots, how is he going to go out?" Other than that these two teams' season is done after Sunday.
G.B. vs. CHI - 'Da Bears' are on a decent little run but they were eliminated from playoff contention with G.B.'s win over MIN last Sunday. The Packers can make the playoffs no matter how they do in their regular season finale but are guaranteed a playoff spot only with a win. And either way they can get in only as a wild card team and as the #6 seed in the N.F.C. playoffs, at best.
the LAC vs. K.C. - Patrick Mahomes won't play in this one as the Chiefs have won their division (for the 8th straight season) and are locked in as the #3 seed in the playoffs. I'm not sure what the Chargers have on the line (if anything). Maybe "auditioning" for a solid head coach.
the NYG vs. PHI - the 'Iggles' are in the playoffs but thanks to their 1 - 4 record over the last 5 games they're no longer in control of their own destiny as far as winning the division goes. They have 3 possibilities: going in as the #2 seed, the #3 seed, or the #5 seed. To go into the playoffs as division champs this year they need to win their last game AND get some help.
WAS vs. DAL - the possibilities for the N.F.C. entry based in TX are the exact same as for their division rivals, the 'Iggles': #2 seed, #3 seed, or #5 seed. The difference being that all the N.F.C. entry based in TX has to do to secure the #2 seed in the playoffs is beat their arch-rivals. No "help" needed. For WAS this might very well be Ron Rivera's last game as H.C. and I'm sure they'd love nothing better than to "play spoiler" and send their hated rivals from TX into the playoffs on a LOSING note.
the LVR vs. DEN - Nothing tangible on the line in this one as both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. DEN appears to be giving up on Russell Wilson and if the Raiders win will that convince owner Mark Davis to keep current interim H.C. Antonio Pierce in the same role? Stay tuned!
ARZ vs. SEA - the Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention for weeks while the Seahawks, thanks to a flaccid performance last Sunday in a (home) loss to PIT, find themselves in the exact same position that they found themselves in Week 18 last season: win and they're in (with help from G.B.'s opponent), lose and they're out (they can also get in with a tie against the Cardinals but that would require them to get much more help than from just 'Da Bears'). There are rumblings of discontent in Seattle about Pete Carroll's future with the team but with him being Executive V.P. of Football Operations in addition to being H.C. my impression is that Pete Carroll won't be "moving on" from SEA until he decides it's time to do so.
SFO vs. the LAR - not a whole lot on the line (aside from the usual rivalry stuff) in this one. The 49ers are the #1 seed in the N.F.C. playoffs this year no matter what happens in this one so they are sitting some starters. Curiously, the Rams are sitting some starters, as well. I guess the possibility of finishing as the #7 seed instead of the #6 seed for the playoffs and trying to end a regular season losing streak to SFO that stretches back to 2018 isn't enough incentive for H.C. Sean McVay to play his full team in this one.
MIA vs. BUF (Sunday night) - With the N.F.L. deciding to make this the last regular season game of the 2023 - 24 season the stakes will be clear at kickoff: MIA is in the playoffs no matter what but with a win they'll go in as division champs and as the #2 seed (with the possibility of hosting the BUF Bills, again, in the first round of the playoffs) while with a loss they will go in as the #6 seed and will visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs. If the Bills win they will go into the playoffs as the #2 seed in the playoffs as A.F.C. East champions while with a tie they will go in as the #6 seed in the playoffs (with that visit to Kansas City in the first round of the playoffs awaiting them). If the Bills lose to MIA on Sunday night they can still get into the playoffs if. . .well, no point in going over all the permutations because by kickoff the Bills will know whether or not they can still make the playoffs even with a loss.
And there you have it! The last weekend of the 2023 - 24 regular season! Six teams are still in contention for two playoff spots in the N.F.C. while five teams are in contention for three playoff spots in the A.F.C. as I type this. So plenty of "drama" before the actual playoffs start in one week.
BAL vs. PIT (Saturday) - the Ravens have locked up the #1 seed (and first round bye that goes along with that) and are resting some players (including starting QB Lamar Jackson) as a result. PIT doesn't have to win today to secure a playoff spot but they'll need less help from other teams around the league if they do. Either way they DO need a little help to get in but thanks to last Sunday's road win over SEA they kept H.C. Mike Tomlin's record of never having had a losing season intact, so there is that.
Indy vs. HOU (Saturday night) - the playoff scenario for each of these teams is remarkably similar: win and they're in (as division champs with help from last-place TEN on Sunday), lose and they're out. A "pre-playoffs playoff game," if you will.
CIN vs. CLE - the Bengals were eliminated from the playoff chase with last week's loss to the A.F.C. West champs, the Kansas City Chiefs, while CLE is locked into the #5 seed in the A.F.C. playoff picture (and are therefore resting some players). Nothing really on the line in this one except state of Ohio bragging rights.
'N'awlins' vs. ATL - similar to Indy vs. HOU from Saturday except that only the Saints have a path to make the playoffs as a wild card team. ATL gets in (as division champs!) with a win AND a win by CAR over T.B. Otherwise, the Falcons' season ends on Sunday.
TEN vs. JAX - LOTS of permutations in this one (well, for JAX, anyway). The simplest one is if the Jaguars beat the last-place Titans. If they do then they'll go into the playoffs as A.F.C. South champions. If they DON'T win on Sunday then they can still make the playoffs, but only with quite a bit of help and only as the #7 seed.
CAR vs. T.B. - Pretty simple: if the Buccaneers win they're in as division champs. If they lose they're out. There are possibilities for them if, somehow, they and CAR tie on Sunday, but w/ a tie the Bucs would then need help to make the playoffs and if they were to make the playoffs under that scenario, it would be as the #7 seed.
DET vs. MIN - the Lions have won the N.F.C. North for the first time, ever (the last time the DET Lions won their division it was called the N.F.C. Central and the league had 4 fewer teams in it than it does now), so for them Sunday's outcomes affect only their seeding for the playoffs (not a huge difference - they'll be either the #2 or the #3 seed in the N.F.C. playoffs this year). MIN, on the other hand, can get in only with a "W" and quite a bit of help from other teams in the league. Right now their chances of getting in, from what I've read, stand at < 5%.
N.E. vs. the NYJ - Nothing really on the line in this one except N.E.'s LONNNG winning streak over the Jets (right now at 15 games) and "if this is Bill Belichick's last game as H.C. of the N.E. Patriots, how is he going to go out?" Other than that these two teams' season is done after Sunday.
G.B. vs. CHI - 'Da Bears' are on a decent little run but they were eliminated from playoff contention with G.B.'s win over MIN last Sunday. The Packers can make the playoffs no matter how they do in their regular season finale but are guaranteed a playoff spot only with a win. And either way they can get in only as a wild card team and as the #6 seed in the N.F.C. playoffs, at best.
the LAC vs. K.C. - Patrick Mahomes won't play in this one as the Chiefs have won their division (for the 8th straight season) and are locked in as the #3 seed in the playoffs. I'm not sure what the Chargers have on the line (if anything). Maybe "auditioning" for a solid head coach.
the NYG vs. PHI - the 'Iggles' are in the playoffs but thanks to their 1 - 4 record over the last 5 games they're no longer in control of their own destiny as far as winning the division goes. They have 3 possibilities: going in as the #2 seed, the #3 seed, or the #5 seed. To go into the playoffs as division champs this year they need to win their last game AND get some help.
WAS vs. DAL - the possibilities for the N.F.C. entry based in TX are the exact same as for their division rivals, the 'Iggles': #2 seed, #3 seed, or #5 seed. The difference being that all the N.F.C. entry based in TX has to do to secure the #2 seed in the playoffs is beat their arch-rivals. No "help" needed. For WAS this might very well be Ron Rivera's last game as H.C. and I'm sure they'd love nothing better than to "play spoiler" and send their hated rivals from TX into the playoffs on a LOSING note.
the LVR vs. DEN - Nothing tangible on the line in this one as both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. DEN appears to be giving up on Russell Wilson and if the Raiders win will that convince owner Mark Davis to keep current interim H.C. Antonio Pierce in the same role? Stay tuned!
ARZ vs. SEA - the Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention for weeks while the Seahawks, thanks to a flaccid performance last Sunday in a (home) loss to PIT, find themselves in the exact same position that they found themselves in Week 18 last season: win and they're in (with help from G.B.'s opponent), lose and they're out (they can also get in with a tie against the Cardinals but that would require them to get much more help than from just 'Da Bears'). There are rumblings of discontent in Seattle about Pete Carroll's future with the team but with him being Executive V.P. of Football Operations in addition to being H.C. my impression is that Pete Carroll won't be "moving on" from SEA until he decides it's time to do so.
SFO vs. the LAR - not a whole lot on the line (aside from the usual rivalry stuff) in this one. The 49ers are the #1 seed in the N.F.C. playoffs this year no matter what happens in this one so they are sitting some starters. Curiously, the Rams are sitting some starters, as well. I guess the possibility of finishing as the #7 seed instead of the #6 seed for the playoffs and trying to end a regular season losing streak to SFO that stretches back to 2018 isn't enough incentive for H.C. Sean McVay to play his full team in this one.
MIA vs. BUF (Sunday night) - With the N.F.L. deciding to make this the last regular season game of the 2023 - 24 season the stakes will be clear at kickoff: MIA is in the playoffs no matter what but with a win they'll go in as division champs and as the #2 seed (with the possibility of hosting the BUF Bills, again, in the first round of the playoffs) while with a loss they will go in as the #6 seed and will visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs. If the Bills win they will go into the playoffs as the #2 seed in the playoffs as A.F.C. East champions while with a tie they will go in as the #6 seed in the playoffs (with that visit to Kansas City in the first round of the playoffs awaiting them). If the Bills lose to MIA on Sunday night they can still get into the playoffs if. . .well, no point in going over all the permutations because by kickoff the Bills will know whether or not they can still make the playoffs even with a loss.
And there you have it! The last weekend of the 2023 - 24 regular season! Six teams are still in contention for two playoff spots in the N.F.C. while five teams are in contention for three playoff spots in the A.F.C. as I type this. So plenty of "drama" before the actual playoffs start in one week.