Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

Due to frustration around many PFHOF-worthy players running out of modern-era eligibility without even getting to the semis much less in the room, I asked 10 Hall historians/analysts to give me their next five classes without consideration for the current queue. We published the results on Clark Judge's site:

https://talkoffametwo.com/guest-columns ... enior-pool

Here are the results, with first-ballot Hall of Famers in caps and candidates in their final years of eligibility with an asterisk:

● Class of 2024: Andre Johnson, Tim McDonald*, Leslie O’Neal*, JULIUS PEPPERS, Patrick Willis
● Class of 2025: Antonio Gates, Torry Holt, Neil Smith*, Ricky Watters, Kevin Williams
● Class of 2026: Eric Allen*, DREW BREES, Randall Cunningham*, LARRY FITZGERALD, Steve Wisniewski*
● Class of 2027: ROB GRONKOWSKI, Devin Hester, Luke Kuechly, ADRIAN PETERSON, Richmond Webb*
● Class of 2028: TOM BRADY, Nick Mangold, Richard Sherman, J.J. WATT, Darren Woodson*

We did this via email only so we couldn't really argue for anyone... I would have pushed Ben Coates and Carnell Lake harder... but overall I really like the concept and the process.

Any thoughts on why some of these Hall-worthy players — multiple All-Decade guys, a 2x MVP in Randall Cunningham, a 6x All Pro in Tim McDonald, etc. etc. — get zero traction with voters? I particularly don't understand the Richmond Webb snub.

This is an interesting exercise. I think it is illustrative in both a good and bad way. I don't think these classes are all that great, and I'm not really seeing any logic behind some of these choices. I won't waste time commenting on the bold guys, but here are some thoughts on the classes:


● Class of 2024: Andre Johnson, Tim McDonald*, Leslie O’Neal*, JULIUS PEPPERS, Patrick Willis

Nothing about Andre Johnson says "HOF" to me. I think he would be a terrible selection. Tim McDonald and Leslie O'Neal were very good players. Turney is quoted in the article on both guys, but I would like to ask point-blank if he actually thinks they were HOFers. I would lean toward HOVG with both. Willis is tough...HOF player but not sure if HOF career?

● Class of 2025: Antonio Gates, Torry Holt, Neil Smith*, Ricky Watters, Kevin Williams

Gates is an obvious HOFer. Letting Holt in would be problematic. I don't think he was ever thought to be a great WR. Neil Smith? Are we just looking for random DEs to be in Canton? Ricky Watters has no business being enshrined. I'd have to look at Kevin Williams more closely...an interesting choice.

● Class of 2026: Eric Allen*, DREW BREES, Randall Cunningham*, LARRY FITZGERALD, Steve Wisniewski*
Allen and Wisniewski are similar to McDonald/O'Neal. Productive guys who weren't the best at their positions. Cunningham is way too inconsistent and was pretty terrible in the postseason. Putting him in Canton would be like putting Stabler in if Stabler went 3-6 in the postseason.

● Class of 2027: ROB GRONKOWSKI, Devin Hester, Luke Kuechly, ADRIAN PETERSON, Richmond Webb*

Hester is a very weak choice. I'm onboard with Kuechly...he had a short career but was always a top MLB. Webb was a nice LT early in his career, then was kind of done after 30. I'd much rather have Mike Kenn than Webb. If you saw how both players' careers would play out, I don't think a single person would choose Webb over Kenn. Kenn was better for much longer.

● Class of 2028: TOM BRADY, Nick Mangold, Richard Sherman, J.J. WATT, Darren Woodson*

Not really understanding the Mangold pick. I think he was called a 'legend' in the article. I wouldn't put him in. Same with Richard Sherman. He was good early in his career with a great supporting cast but fell off quickly. He had one comeback year in SF, but couldn't sustain it. If you want your mind blown, compare Sherman's turnover numbers to Charles Tillman. Darren Woodson falls in the Neil Smith category to me....at what point was Woodson ever thought to be a HOF player?

Thanks for the feedback Bryan. We clearly disagree on a lot of players so I won't go down the line. I would love to see your next five classes!

Best,
Jack

Bryan, the one question I'd ask you is why you call Hester a "very weak choice" considering that your critique on Allen, McDonald, O'Neal and Wisniewski is that they were "productive guys who weren't the best at their positions."

Do you think someone other than Hester was the greatest returner ever? If so, who?

Or do you think Hester was but you oppose returners in Canton? Or special teamers? Obviously as a fellow Bears fan, I assume you watched Hester's entire career.

As Bryan points out, its a very subjective process but many guys should be heard regardless, without having to fall through the cracks into senior oblivion. Postseason success still has to be a major factor that could help players like Nalen, Woodson, Smith and others but its up to the whims of biased voters.

Of those choices, I agree with O'Neil, Smith, Allen, Wisniewski and Woodson, mostly due to accolades-post season success, who are running out of time, yet Johnson, Willis, Holt, Williams, Hester, Kuechly and Sherman still have time to wait ...

Webb and Watters have cases but its close ... Watters went downhill somewhat going through free agency, while Webb excelled as a pass blocker only. Shula made a mistake in not developing his run blocking ability, something even Jimmy Johnson couldnt rectify.

I disagree with Bryan on Woodson, who I felt represented the Cowboys three championships and many years of excellent defense better than Haley or Sanders, who had great success with other teams as well. Other than perhaps Meador, Anderson or Scott as seniors, he should be the next safety elected.

Brian wolf wrote: ↑Thu Oct 26, 2023 1:20 pm I disagree with Bryan on Woodson, who I felt represented the Cowboys three championships and many years of excellent defense better than Haley or Sanders, who had great success with other teams as well. Other than perhaps Meador, Anderson or Scott as seniors, he should be the next safety elected.

Woodson barely played on the 1st championship team. Thomas Everett was the SS, and he was a big hitter despite his size. Woodson was a nominal starter on the 2nd championship team, mainly because Everett was shifted over to FS. The only championship team in which Woodson was a major contributor was the 3rd team.

readjack wrote: ↑Thu Oct 26, 2023 1:18 pm Bryan, the one question I'd ask you is why you call Hester a "very weak choice" considering that your critique on Allen, McDonald, O'Neal and Wisniewski is that they were "productive guys who weren't the best at their positions."

Do you think someone other than Hester was the greatest returner ever? If so, who?

Or do you think Hester was but you oppose returners in Canton? Or special teamers? Obviously as a fellow Bears fan, I assume you watched Hester's entire career.

Hester was a great punt returner and a decent kick returner. Hester had 11 seasons where he returned punts and kicks; 22 opportunities to lead the NFL in either PR AVG or KR AVG. How many times did Hester do this? Twice. Guys like Mel Gray and Rick Upchurch were better returners because they excelled at both PR and KR. Hester did not. Hester's greatness is a product of his longevity. Dante Hall was a better, more dynamic returner than Hester but he was done at age 30. In the way back machine, you could say that Gale Sayers and Jack Christiensen were better returners than Hester, but they also had HOF careers at full-time positions.

Here is a historic collection of more snide Hester remarks...enjoy:

*Terry Metcalf or Eric Metcalf? Both great returners, both better than Hester. Tim Brown or Timmy Brown? Abe Woodson or Rod Woodson?

*Its not surprising that Brian Mitchell is 2nd to Hester in non-offensive TDs...like Hester, Mitchell wasn't good enough at RB to be a regular player so he spent his entire career as a return man. Hester was a great punt returner, an above-average kick returner, and did not play any of the coverage teams. He was not a better special teams player than Steve Tasker or Joshua Cribbs. Someone would have to convince me that Hester was indeed the greatest return man of all-time before I would consider him worthy of Canton. Career non-offensive TDs just shows Hester turned a niche job into a long career, IMO. There are many players more deserving than Hester. It would be like Cooperstown inducting Manny Mota because he was a great pinch-hitter.

*Part of what allowed Hester to compile large career return totals was that he couldn't do anything else. Even in college all he did was return kicks. I think Josh Cribbs was a better special teams player than Hester, because Cribbs could do everything on special teams. Hester was a specialist specialist, if that makes sense.

Thats true, yet he played well on special teams and in postseason, similar to the start of Donnie Shell's career in Pittsburgh. I felt he was a major factor starting with the 1993 season, though I was a fan of hitters Everett and Washington as well.

Had Carnell Lake played just safety, he would have an even stronger HOF case but unselfishly played corner when the team needed him. Has it hurt his chances? Woodson for Dallas also had alot of responsibilities, including covering slot and seam receivers and couldnt depend on Sanders following his man on inside routes. We all knew that Deion was about coverage rather than tackling and Woodson helped the linebackers make up for that as well ...

Haha ... I agree and disagree on Bryan's takes on Hester as well but know he will make the HOF. Hopefully others like Eric Metcalf, Brian Mitchell, Timmy Brown, Lemar Parrish and Abe Woodson will as well, since they had more impact as regular players. Billy Johnson and Upchurch have cases similar to Hester and Hall had impact but a shorter career.

I put Mel Gray and Rick Upchurch in my "founding returner PFHOF class" so no argument from me against them:

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2016/ ... cago-bears

But I'll correct your faulty sentiment on Hester along with some stats.

"Hester was a great punt returner and a decent kick returner"

Most times leading the NFL in one of the three major KR stats: yards, average, TDs:
6 - Patterson
4 - Gray, HESTER, Bo. Mitchell, A. Woodson

"Guys like Mel Gray and Rick Upchurch were better returners because they excelled at both PR and KR. Hester did not."

Career punt return TDs
* Hester: 14
* Upchurch: 8

Career kick return TDs:
* Hester: 5
* Upchurch: 0

Kick return stats for decade in which player was named All-Decade KR:
* Hester, 2010s: 194 returns, 5036 yards, 26.0 yards per return, 1 TD, 2x yards leader
* Upchurch, 1980s: 0 returns

Complete list of players who led the NFL in kick and punt return yards 2x apiece:
* Devin Hester

Most combined times leading the NFL in KR average or PR average:
4 - Gray (2 apiece)
3 - Upchurch (3 PR), Ron Smith (2 KR, 1 PR), Patterson (3 KR)
2 - HESTER (2 PR), White Shoes (2 PR), A. Woodson (2 KR), Sayers (2 KR)

Career postseason high for kick return yards for the 1st team all-decade kick returner (career high not necessarily in decade of 1st team):

* 2010s (no team designation): Devin Hester, 194 yards
* 2010s (no team designation): Cordarrelle Patterson, 80 yards
* 2000s: Josh Cribbs, 75 yards
* 1990s: Michael Bates, 172 yards
* 1980s: Mike Nelms, 128 yards
* 1970s: Rick Upchurch, 94 yards

"Hester's greatness is a product of his longevity."

All-time special teams return touchdown list entering his famous Broncos game in his second season where he scored twice on returns:

13 touchdowns — Brian Mitchell, 223 games
12 touchdowns — Dante Hall, 103 games (active); Eric Metcalf, 179 games
9 touchdowns — Mel Gray, 169 games; Deion Sanders, 188 games; HESTER, 26 games

Return stats from 30 years old and on:
* Upchurch: 65 PR, 10.9 avg., 2 TD, 1x TD leader, 1x avg leader — 0 kick returns — 1x AP1/PB
* White Shoes: 127 PR, 10.1 avg, 1 TD — 2 KR, 19.5 avg, 0 TD
* Gray: 158 PR, 10.5 avg, 2 TD, 1x avg leader — 263 KR, 24.7 avg., 2x avg. leader, 1x yards leader, 2x TD leader — 2x AP1, 1x AP2, 3x PB
* E. Metcalf: 113 PR, 8.4 avg, 1 TD — 64 KR, 20.9 avg., 0 TD
* Br. Mitchell: 230 PR, 10.3 avg., 2 TD — 288 KR, 23.1 avg, 3 TD, 1x yards leader
* Cribbs: 27 PR, 8.2 avg, 0 TD — 39 KR, 28.2 avg, 0 TD
* HESTER: 109 PR, 9.6 avg, 2 TD — 149 KR, 26.1 avg., 0 TD, 2x yards leader — 1x PB

So of those six, after age 30, he had the 2nd highest KR avg.

The aforementioned 194-yard playoff game was the final game of his career.

"Someone would have to convince me that Hester was indeed the greatest return man of all-time before I would consider him worthy of Canton."

What NFL returners have said about Devin Hester:

* Deion Sanders: greatest ever
* Dante Hall: greatest ever
* Gale Sayers: HOF
* Brian Mitchell: HOF
* Mel Gray: HOF
* Desmond Howard: “Barry Sanders-factor”
* Billy “White Shoes” Johnson: “Makes it look easy.”

Bryan wrote: ↑Thu Oct 26, 2023 2:02 pm

readjack wrote: ↑Thu Oct 26, 2023 1:18 pm Bryan, the one question I'd ask you is why you call Hester a "very weak choice" considering that your critique on Allen, McDonald, O'Neal and Wisniewski is that they were "productive guys who weren't the best at their positions."

Do you think someone other than Hester was the greatest returner ever? If so, who?

Or do you think Hester was but you oppose returners in Canton? Or special teamers? Obviously as a fellow Bears fan, I assume you watched Hester's entire career.

Hester was a great punt returner and a decent kick returner. Hester had 11 seasons where he returned punts and kicks; 22 opportunities to lead the NFL in either PR AVG or KR AVG. How many times did Hester do this? Twice. Guys like Mel Gray and Rick Upchurch were better returners because they excelled at both PR and KR. Hester did not. Hester's greatness is a product of his longevity. Dante Hall was a better, more dynamic returner than Hester but he was done at age 30. In the way back machine, you could say that Gale Sayers and Jack Christiensen were better returners than Hester, but they also had HOF careers at full-time positions.

Here is a historic collection of more snide Hester remarks...enjoy:

*Terry Metcalf or Eric Metcalf? Both great returners, both better than Hester. Tim Brown or Timmy Brown? Abe Woodson or Rod Woodson?

*Its not surprising that Brian Mitchell is 2nd to Hester in non-offensive TDs...like Hester, Mitchell wasn't good enough at RB to be a regular player so he spent his entire career as a return man. Hester was a great punt returner, an above-average kick returner, and did not play any of the coverage teams. He was not a better special teams player than Steve Tasker or Joshua Cribbs. Someone would have to convince me that Hester was indeed the greatest return man of all-time before I would consider him worthy of Canton. Career non-offensive TDs just shows Hester turned a niche job into a long career, IMO. There are many players more deserving than Hester. It would be like Cooperstown inducting Manny Mota because he was a great pinch-hitter.

*Part of what allowed Hester to compile large career return totals was that he couldn't do anything else. Even in college all he did was return kicks. I think Josh Cribbs was a better special teams player than Hester, because Cribbs could do everything on special teams. Hester was a specialist specialist, if that makes sense.