Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

Sometimes, one single game can have a massive butterfly effect.

In 2015, the Steelers beating the Chargers on MNF with Le'Veon Bell scoring on the final play of the game had a big ripple effect.

If he doesn't score, the Chargers win, and Pittsburgh loses:

Week 16 would have knocked them out as the Steelers got shockingly swept by John Harbaugh's worst Baltimore team and the Jets famously beat the Patriots in overtime when Belichick won the coin toss and deferred.

If the Fitzpatrick OT touchdown to Eric Decker puts the Jets in the playoffs (probably rest everyone against Buffalo), that changes a lot

The Jets instead travel to Cincinnati to face AJ McCarron. I don't think NYJ/CIN would have been the same hot mess that we got instead with Steelers/Bengals as the bad blood in one matchup had been palpable leading up to the game and the other............ well unless there's any bitterness about 2009

But here's where it goes deeper than just team A gets in instead of team B:

Highly likely we don't get the ending with Burfict/Pacman Jones

If the Jets win, they go to Denver but if you remember Pittsburgh even with their injuries almost beat the Broncos. Could a healthy NYJ team have instead held on late? PIT's backup RB fumbled late with a Steeler lead, maybe Chris Ivory doesn't give Denver a second chance? Maybe Fitzpatrick ends up making an unlikely SB run

If Pittsburgh doesn't make the playoffs, there's no Burfict/Brown hit and Antonio Brown likely doesn't go down the path he does. Heck, he might still be a Steeler.

If the Bengals win that game, they end the playoff drought 6 years earlier. Does Marvin Lewis get a longer leeway if he gets that elusive playoff win? How does that change the Bengal future (it took them years to recover from that Steeler playoff disaster)

But this also effects New England and Kansas City.

New England if the Jets upset the Broncos could have been in position to host the AFC-CG rather than go to Denver, which was their postseason house of horrors for Brady and Belichick. OR if Cincinnati wins, they face AJ McCarron (albeit coming off a playoff win and CIN with the playoff monkey off their back plays looser)

Kansas City with a Bengal win would have gone to Denver, a place where earlier that year they forced Peyton into the worst game of his career (5-20, 35 yards, 4 INT's, 0 passer rating). That was the 1st of their 15 straight wins against Denver and KC went into the divisional round on an 11 game winning streak.

Chiefs/Patriots instead of a divisional playoff game could have been the AFC Championship Game.

Maybe Denver doesn't even get to the SB and Peyton ends up with 1 ring

And also, how does this affect Carolina?

If Denver's out of the picture, how would the Patriots/Chiefs/Jets/Bengals have fared against that 15-1 team?

Carolina's defense played well enough in its own right against Denver. Without Von and that legendary Orange Crush defense, could Cam have played better against a more flawed AFC representative?

Pats could not run the ball and had a shaky O-Line, Jets had the unpredictable Fitzmagic/Fitztragic, Bengals would have had a backup QB (Dalton didn't get cleared to throw until the spring), and the Chiefs were a less dynamic offense with Alex Smith (Mahomes was still in college)

So basically this affects 7 teams:

Steelers- Antonio Brown doesn't go down the road to ruin if no Burfict hit)

Broncos- Peyton doesn't get the storybook ending and the No Fly Zone defense becomes a what if ala Rex Ryan's Jets

Bengals- No playoff debacle vs Pittsburgh, no Burfict hit, a playoff win changes the way we view Marvin Lewis, a big boost for AJ McCarron

Patriots- If they don't have to go to Denver, less likely they lose another AFC-CG at home

Jets- could have made a deep run, playoff drought is shorter, Bowles gets a few more years, Gase error never happens

Chiefs- Avoid Pats until AFC-CG, maybe have a chance to take advantage against a one dimensional team with a shaky offensive line

Panthers- Better chance to win the SB against an AFC opponent with a not-so-historically great defense

Steelers- Antonio Brown doesn't go down the road to ruin if no Burfict hit

Also, the Steelers would have missed the playoffs for the third time in four years. I wonder if that puts Tomlin on more of a hot seat going into 2016.

Nice re-education/big refresher, CSK! And an array of interesting butterfly-effective hypotheticals you offer!

I, of course, do remember the 2015 Steelers! But the only real memories that come to mind despite this being 'just' eight years ago, is they losing that opener at NE (naturally) and beating Oss's Broncos during the regular season. But re-looking at their schedule/results after reading the OP I thought the game was a little earlier in the season. I forgot they started so tough along with...getting swept by the Ravens!

But I do remember the finale and they having to win as Bowles' Jets had to lose. A girl I worked with was a Cleveland fan. She and I met up at a sports bar where BOTH the Pit@Cle and NYJ@Buf games were side-by-side right in front of us. And then, the following week, the crazy notorious Bengals win. And then barely losing at Denver obviously undermanned! Tomlin crying in the locker afterward? Can't blame him. I feel the '15 Steelers, despite finishing 10-6 and getting swept by Ravens, were more SB-win-capable than their following installment - had they just been full strength for the playoffs! Hey, anything would have been possible.

I strongly feel had they been full strength, they beat Denver. And that's not a knock on Denver. They still, to me, deserve their '15 Title. Historic defensive statement! Wade's tour de force moment among so many accolades! And Peyton still playing just good enough for he to have had to still be present when it mattered! They still had to beat NE and did beat them whom, I opine, Steelers likely don't beat (as usual) had it been they playing them instead. And then to face, and beat, the 17-1 obviously favored Panthers...not sure the 'Burgh gets it done vs them either but you just simply never know.

Most likely Carolina beats any other AFC team other than Denver! Okay, maybe Belichick/Brady would have had an answer too.


PS - AJ McCarron...just ONE THING for me to think of when thinking of him! And, of course, I'm not the only one. B.M. included!

That Steelers-Bengals playoff game was a guilty pleasure for older fans like myself, who like intense, physical hitting. It was like watching 70s football all over again, unfortunately, that game also helped change the rules to an Arena Football-style game, nowadays ... Big Ben and the Steelers had their chance to beat Denver but never committed to running the football, while the young players made too many mistakes.

Carolina had the team to beat any AFC team, whether Denver or NE but Newton picked the worst time to play a terrible SB. Only Kerry Collin's game in 2001 was worse.