Witnessing 2021 playoff "trends"

[Bryan]

As you already know, the postseason is a different animal. Idiot sports radio handicappers said "47.5 points in the Bengals-Titans game? Pound the over!". The weather is worse. The defenses play their best. The offenses stiffen up. Here are some things I've noticed:

1) One trend that I saw during this regular season of hyper-aggressive 4th down and extra point decision making has really had an adverse affect on the 2021 playoff games. Teams constantly going for it on 4th down and getting completely stuffed. Teams bypassing FG attempts and coming away empty. Teams going for 2 for no apparent reason. It seems like a ton of points have been left on the field in these playoff games, and sometimes it has decided the outcome. Perhaps the biggest play in the Bengals-Titans game was the Bengals having 12 men on the field during the Titans' XP attempt in a 6-6 game. It coerced Vrabel not have a 7-6 lead, instead go for 2 and get stuffed, and at the end of the game it's 16-16. There were multiple times in both divisional games when 4th and 1's were stuffed in FG range. I don't really understand the 'analytics' behind these decisions.

2) Replay is still wonky, as are the NFL catch rule interpretations, and these tend to be more evident in close games. A big catch or a turnover can turn the outcome of a game, and replay isn't really helping these matters. Even of less help are moronic "rules analysts" like Gene Steratore and Mike Perreria who are mindless shills offering nothing of substance. God bless Terry McCauley, who has been the only 'rules analyst' to offer criticism of a botched replay call.

The Titans were awarded an INT on a play when the DB grabbed the back half of the ball as the ball CLEARLY hit the ground. Under no circumstance is this a catch...the hands were not 'underneath' the ball; the player could not have controlled the ball prior to the ball hitting the ground because his hands were on the ball as it touched the ground...we are subjected to 4 minutes of replay delay...and in the end Clete Blakeman allows the INT to stand. HUH? Even more puzzling was Steratore's "radio silence" after such an egregious and game-changing call.

Switch to the Niners-Packers, where Brandon Aiyuk catches a pass for a first down, turns upfield and gets hit, fumbles, and the Packers return the ball into SF territory. Mike Perreria claims that Aiyuk did not have three steps with the ball so its not a catch...which is questionable in itself (it looked like he had 3 steps), but more importantly, the "3 step" criteria isn't the only criteria for a catch...

c. after (a) and (b) have been fulfilled, performs any act common to the game (e.g., tuck the ball away, extend it forward, take an additional step, turn upfield, or avoid or ward off an opponent), or he maintains control of the ball long enough to do so.

Aiyuk tucked the ball away, turned upfield, and IMO took an additional step. But after 4 minutes of replay, the fumble call on the field is overturned to incomplete pass. So in reality, you have an INT awarded to the Titans that clearly wasn't a catch, and you have a SF WR who clearly catches the ball only to have it ruled an incomplete pass. This is what makes the NFL so difficult to watch, and it only intensifies in the playoffs where the stakes are higher.

3) I really don't have the time of day for the Buck-Aikman broadcast team. These guys are completely oblivious to what is happening on the field time and time again. In the 1st quarter of SF-GB, Deebo Samuel takes a handoff gets stood up, and the Packers strip the ball AND recover the ball before the play is whistled dead. This is obvious from the telecast audio. The refs rule the runner's forward progress was stopped prior to the fumble (but not prior to the whistle), so SF is given the ball back. I hate this type of ruling, because it makes the act of whistling the play dead superfluous....like the ignored whistle in the Raiders-Bengals game. Anyways, I thought the Packers got jobbed, but Aikman rubs salt in the wounds by exclaiming during the replay of Deebo fumbling, "the refs had already blown the play dead by this point and were coming in to spot the ball." They hadn't blown the play dead; the refs weren't coming in to spot the ball...that's the whole point. I just hope FOX isn't doing the Super Bowl this year.

[Jay Z]

I'm not sure what the conversion percentage needs to be in the Titans game to convince me to go for two. Higher than it is. The chart is going to tell you anything above 50% you go for it. It turned out to be their only chance to get the lead in the whole game. I guess they could have kicked a long FG in the 4th quarter when they had a 2nd and 3 at about the 35 and wound up getting stuffed three times. Getting up by one at that point in the game is far more important than getting up by two, the two points need to be more of a lock. Henry hadn't played for half a season and it showed, he was tentative.

Yeah, I thought the 49ers catch and fumble should have stayed as called, and it might have mattered as far as momentum went, the Packers getting the ball back right away with good field position. The Deebo fumble is something that is let go most of the time, so scrum whistles don't bother me so much.

[GameBeforeTheMoney]

JayZ -- exactly on point with the Titans. There really isn't a reason to go for two there. Always take the lead in the playoffs. Instead, Bengals stop it and feel great afterward.

As for the SF catch and fumble, that gets called a fumble on every playground in America. For some reason, it's not a fumble at the pro level.

Coincidentally, Jerry Rice clearly fumbled on the drive that Owens caught the late TD in that playoff. The Packers recovered but replay wasn't used that season.

SF played a tough game last night. They have really been impressive in terms of handling adversity and not letting negative things affect them too much. Admirable run for them so far.

[Brian wolf]

Had to edit my comment after finally seeing a replay of this game*

Rodgers got hit before fumbling the ball to SF but the referees didn't even look at a possible replay, even when SF had clear possession. They just spotted the ball and allowed the Packer offense to line up for another play. Why Shanahan didnt challenge this is beyond me, maybe he couldnt but the Niners got poetic justice when the Packers had their FG attempt blocked ... Yep, Vegas loved making money off the public yesterday.

Before Tannehill's last interception in a crowd of players, the Titans were butchering the clock as it went from 1:45 down below the minute mark, with the team having no sense of urgency at all, as the crowd was wondering what the hell was going on. Maybe the Titans were playing for overtime but then comes the interception and as usual, the Titans secondary played too far off of the Bengal receivers and Chase makes an easy sideline grab that sets up the winning FG ...

[Bryan]

I'm not sure what the conversion percentage needs to be in the Titans game to convince me to go for two. Higher than it is. The chart is going to tell you anything above 50% you go for it. It turned out to be their only chance to get the lead in the whole game. I guess they could have kicked a long FG in the 4th quarter when they had a 2nd and 3 at about the 35 and wound up getting stuffed three times. Getting up by one at that point in the game is far more important than getting up by two, the two points need to be more of a lock.

My favorite numbskull, Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, weighed in with his typical myopic view...saying that Vrabel was correct to go for 2 because teams convert 62.5% from the 1 in those situations, while regular XP kicks convert at 90 - 95%. So its mathematically correct to go for 2 in that situation. But...Schatz illogically doesn't take into account the outcome of not converting the XP in that situation. With the score tied 6-6, you can look at the same math and say "I either have a 62.5% chance of taking the lead, or a 90 - 95% chance of taking the lead", which would you choose?

[Bryan]

Before Tannehill's last interception in a crowd of players, the Titans were butchering the clock as it went from 1:45 down below the minute mark, with the team having no sense of urgency at all, as the crowd was wondering what the hell was going on. Maybe the Titans were playing for overtime but then comes the interception and as usual, the Titans secondary played too far off of the Bengal receivers and Chase makes an easy sideline grab that sets up the winning FG ...

Even before that, when the Titans first got the ball with IIRC 2:30 seconds left, they ran one play with Henry up the middle prior to the 2 minute warning. The 1st down runs up the middle and the lack or urgency made it seem like the Titans were playing for OT, which didn't make much sense because they had timeouts and could easily have gotten into FG range. But then they ended up turning the ball over anyways, so I don't get what the Titans were trying to do. They had some stat that Tannehill was the 2nd QB in 40 years to throw an INT in the last minute of a tied postseason game...kind of weird. Hasselbeck threw a pick 6 in OT against GB, but not sure if they are counting that one. Not sure who the other QB could be; Craig Morton was more than 40 years ago.

[Jay Z]

Before Tannehill's last interception in a crowd of players, the Titans were butchering the clock as it went from 1:45 down below the minute mark, with the team having no sense of urgency at all, as the crowd was wondering what the hell was going on. Maybe the Titans were playing for overtime but then comes the interception and as usual, the Titans secondary played too far off of the Bengal receivers and Chase makes an easy sideline grab that sets up the winning FG ...

Even before that, when the Titans first got the ball with IIRC 2:30 seconds left, they ran one play with Henry up the middle prior to the 2 minute warning. The 1st down runs up the middle and the lack or urgency made it seem like the Titans were playing for OT, which didn't make much sense because they had timeouts and could easily have gotten into FG range. But then they ended up turning the ball over anyways, so I don't get what the Titans were trying to do. They had some stat that Tannehill was the 2nd QB in 40 years to throw an INT in the last minute of a tied postseason game...kind of weird. Hasselbeck threw a pick 6 in OT against GB, but not sure if they are counting that one. Not sure who the other QB could be; Craig Morton was more than 40 years ago.

Other one was Favre in 2009 for the Vikings against the Saints.

[Brian wolf]

Like Bryan pointed out, it was a terrible possession for the Titans, where Tannehill seemed to have forgotten how to run a hurry-up, two minute drill. Everyone in Nashville thought they would win it with a FG but the Titans did the worst butchering of a clock since the Bills against the Giants in the 90/91 SB. Then, the throw into a crowd of players that is tipped and intercepted.

Terrible play by Tannehill in the playoffs these last two years. On another interception, he is unable to throw around the only defender near the ball as the defender tips the pass to himself ...

[Brian wolf]

Favre also threw the interception that allowed the Giants to win in the 2007/08 NFC Championship.

[Bryan]

The Chiefs ended up costing themselves by going for a TD with 5 seconds left instead of kicking a FG. Given Mahomes' tendency to dance around, I thought it was a risk to go for it even before Mahomes decided to throw a pass well short of the end zone. I'm sure KC would have like 3 more points.

I guess these trends are coming so prevalent that Tony Romo lost his mind at the end of regulation in the KC-Cincy game. Cincy up 24-21, KC hasn't scored at all in the 2nd half but they get a 1st and goal situation. The first thing Romo suggests is that the Bengals should allow KC to score an immediate TD so they can get the ball back. What? As Mahomes proceeds to move backwards about 25 yards in the next couple plays, Romo then suggests that KC should eat up more clock before they score. That's really KC's concern? As their kicker had been shanking every kick and as Mahomes is nearly fumbling away the Super Bowl? Strange times.