What is your personal "GOAT progression"?
Posted: Sat Nov 13, 2021 11:46 pm
That is to say, who do you think has held the title of the NFL's "Greatest of All Time" at each point in the league's history, when did each player first state their claim to the title, and for how long did they hold it? Pretty simple. This is sure to trigger some interesting discussion about various eras in NFL history.
In football, there are generally two concurrent "GOAT" debates running at once: the one that centers around quarterbacks exclusively, and that which considers relative dominance at all positions fairly equally. So I'll do a list for both categories. Subsequent posters may take this approach or simply list one order.
All positions:
1. Benny Friedman (QB, 1929-1942) - In a time when almost all players had short careers, Friedman, the first true NFL quarterback, was able to lay claim to this very early in his. He was the best player in football immediately, and 1928, when he may have led the league in all major passing and rushing stats, put him farther above his contemporaries than possibly any player in NFL history. But the GOAT status became unequivocal the following year, when the Giants bought out the entire Detroit franchise to acquire him, and he got even better with them.
2. Don Hutson (WR, 1942-1963) - Like Friedman, Hutson essentially created a new position on the field, and dominated it out of the gate like few ever would again. But obviously, his 1942, which may still be the greatest receiving season of all time, is what clinched him as the undisputed GOAT. Sammy Baugh is also a strong contender for this spot, considering his multi-positional excellence, but he never displayed near Hutson's level of dominance, and definitely hadn't attained GOAT status by 1942.
3. Jim Brown (RB, 1963-1995) - Unlike his forebears in this progression, Jim Brown didn't invent the modern RB position, but he certainly revolutionized it. He was the best player in football by a mile as of his second season in 1958, but I would say he broke the GOAT barrier with his 1963, the first 2000-yard scrimmage season in 14 games.
4. Jerry Rice (WR, 1995-2020) - I still find it incredible that none of the great receivers of this inflated passing era have even come close to touching Jerry Rice's achievements, such is the extent to which he wrote the book and it is finished. 1995 seems like the right spot to crown him the clear GOAT; it's the first time he concurrently held the single-season yardage and TD records (so long Henny), he had long since taken the career records, and it was clear he would take them farther. His pace did begin to fall off after this, but he still proceeded to put this debate away considerably.
5. Tom Brady (QB, 2020-present) - While the Manning-Brady debates raged (we'll get to that in a moment), I always thought Rice stood firmly above the fray. That changed in 2020, when Brady moved to a new team at 43 and immediately won another Super Bowl with one of his better statistical seasons. But more importantly for these purposes, it was when he proved that he was going to share (and even exceed) Rice's unprecedented longevity, which is always what I felt he would need to eclipse him. So far this season, he's looking like he can hold this position for the next half century, putting it out of reach even for a current generation with at least 6-7 future Hall of Fame QBs drafted in the last 5 years.
I'm interested to see if anyone would put a defensive player in this ordering. I don't think one has been sufficiently dominant, but there's certainly a conceivable alternate reality where there could have been. For example, I don't think one would need to add too much to Reggie White's resume (along with removing Rice from history) for him to have an honest case.
Now for the QBs:
1. Benny Friedman (1929-1945) - Obviously, there is no other candidate for this era. His running ability is going to be problematic for the two contenders for the next spot on this list.
2. Sammy Baugh (1945-1954) - Note that for the QB-exclusive list, I'm only considering factors that relate to QB play, so for example, running counts, but defense doesn't. That makes this much closer than you'd think between Baugh and Sid Luckman. When did each surpass Friedman? Neither ran like him, which means they needed to do much more throwing the ball. Baugh and Luckman both broke Friedman's single-season passing yards and TD records in 1943, and Baugh had already taken the career marks from him by then, with Luckman soon to follow. If Friedman's running still put him on top at that time, I think it's clear that both Baugh and Luckman had done enough to surpass him by the end of 1947. So it's really close, but who got there first? The best single season between them is probably Luckman's 1943, but I'll say Baugh went full GOAT first for his 1945, when he broke the completion percentage record by approximately two light years.
3. Otto Graham (1954-2013) - Graham's AAFC work was as strong as the best of Baugh and Luckman, but he pulled away from them convincingly when he started putting up black numbers and winning titles again in the NFL. It's tough to pinpoint exactly when; 1953 was probably his best NFL season, but he had a random train wreck of a playoff game, so definitely by 1954, his second NFL championship. Now, this is going to be the most controversial take I offer in this post: I think Graham held onto this position up to the modern era, however much by a mere thread. That means all the way through Unitas, who would have taken it if his abilities didn't fail him fairly early; Montana, who was the consummate winner between Graham and Brady, but wasn't dynamic enough in my opinion; Marino, who would have run away with it if he maintained near his early pace, but he too began to decline too quickly; and even Favre, whose durability and longevity are incomparable, but was just far too erratic; the latter two also lacked severely in the winning department in comparison. Graham, by contrast, had a near-perfectly consistent run, and the only knock on him is a fairly short career. He even developed a semblance of a run threat as his career went on. That's not to say these QBs didn't come close; I'd say all of them came reasonably so, and I'd definitely listen to arguments for any of them, and maybe a couple more. But Graham's combination of regularly being the best passer in the league and always a threat to win a ring wasn't matched until modern times.
4. Peyton Manning (2013-2017) - Cue the Manning-Brady arguments. Whether you have Graham eclipsed prior to the modern era or not, one could argue that Peyton claimed this spot earlier as a Colt, but 2013 feels like the perfect moment to state that he had put it beyond all reasonable doubt, having come back from a career-threatening injury, only to have the greatest passing season of all time. If not for his unfortunately abrupt decline due to the recurrence of his nerve damage, he could still be contending for this position... literally.
5. Tom Brady (2017-present) - While it would take him a few more years still to exceed Rice, I'd say he claimed this place with his most recent MVP season in 2017, helped by Manning's aforementioned skill collapse. He lost the Super Bowl to the Philly Special this year, but he had just gotten to 5 rings the year before with the greatest SB performance ever, so not too big a deal, I'd say. While Graham narrowly held onto this title for over half a century, one could argue that all of Brady, Manning, Rodgers, and Brees have surpassed him by now, and multiple currently young QBs appear likely to as well. But for anyone to pass Brady, playing until he's 50 or something ridiculous? That's going to take a long time.
What do you all think? I'm sure everyone here has differing opinions about this topic, and I want to hear all of them!
In football, there are generally two concurrent "GOAT" debates running at once: the one that centers around quarterbacks exclusively, and that which considers relative dominance at all positions fairly equally. So I'll do a list for both categories. Subsequent posters may take this approach or simply list one order.
All positions:
1. Benny Friedman (QB, 1929-1942) - In a time when almost all players had short careers, Friedman, the first true NFL quarterback, was able to lay claim to this very early in his. He was the best player in football immediately, and 1928, when he may have led the league in all major passing and rushing stats, put him farther above his contemporaries than possibly any player in NFL history. But the GOAT status became unequivocal the following year, when the Giants bought out the entire Detroit franchise to acquire him, and he got even better with them.
2. Don Hutson (WR, 1942-1963) - Like Friedman, Hutson essentially created a new position on the field, and dominated it out of the gate like few ever would again. But obviously, his 1942, which may still be the greatest receiving season of all time, is what clinched him as the undisputed GOAT. Sammy Baugh is also a strong contender for this spot, considering his multi-positional excellence, but he never displayed near Hutson's level of dominance, and definitely hadn't attained GOAT status by 1942.
3. Jim Brown (RB, 1963-1995) - Unlike his forebears in this progression, Jim Brown didn't invent the modern RB position, but he certainly revolutionized it. He was the best player in football by a mile as of his second season in 1958, but I would say he broke the GOAT barrier with his 1963, the first 2000-yard scrimmage season in 14 games.
4. Jerry Rice (WR, 1995-2020) - I still find it incredible that none of the great receivers of this inflated passing era have even come close to touching Jerry Rice's achievements, such is the extent to which he wrote the book and it is finished. 1995 seems like the right spot to crown him the clear GOAT; it's the first time he concurrently held the single-season yardage and TD records (so long Henny), he had long since taken the career records, and it was clear he would take them farther. His pace did begin to fall off after this, but he still proceeded to put this debate away considerably.
5. Tom Brady (QB, 2020-present) - While the Manning-Brady debates raged (we'll get to that in a moment), I always thought Rice stood firmly above the fray. That changed in 2020, when Brady moved to a new team at 43 and immediately won another Super Bowl with one of his better statistical seasons. But more importantly for these purposes, it was when he proved that he was going to share (and even exceed) Rice's unprecedented longevity, which is always what I felt he would need to eclipse him. So far this season, he's looking like he can hold this position for the next half century, putting it out of reach even for a current generation with at least 6-7 future Hall of Fame QBs drafted in the last 5 years.
I'm interested to see if anyone would put a defensive player in this ordering. I don't think one has been sufficiently dominant, but there's certainly a conceivable alternate reality where there could have been. For example, I don't think one would need to add too much to Reggie White's resume (along with removing Rice from history) for him to have an honest case.
Now for the QBs:
1. Benny Friedman (1929-1945) - Obviously, there is no other candidate for this era. His running ability is going to be problematic for the two contenders for the next spot on this list.
2. Sammy Baugh (1945-1954) - Note that for the QB-exclusive list, I'm only considering factors that relate to QB play, so for example, running counts, but defense doesn't. That makes this much closer than you'd think between Baugh and Sid Luckman. When did each surpass Friedman? Neither ran like him, which means they needed to do much more throwing the ball. Baugh and Luckman both broke Friedman's single-season passing yards and TD records in 1943, and Baugh had already taken the career marks from him by then, with Luckman soon to follow. If Friedman's running still put him on top at that time, I think it's clear that both Baugh and Luckman had done enough to surpass him by the end of 1947. So it's really close, but who got there first? The best single season between them is probably Luckman's 1943, but I'll say Baugh went full GOAT first for his 1945, when he broke the completion percentage record by approximately two light years.
3. Otto Graham (1954-2013) - Graham's AAFC work was as strong as the best of Baugh and Luckman, but he pulled away from them convincingly when he started putting up black numbers and winning titles again in the NFL. It's tough to pinpoint exactly when; 1953 was probably his best NFL season, but he had a random train wreck of a playoff game, so definitely by 1954, his second NFL championship. Now, this is going to be the most controversial take I offer in this post: I think Graham held onto this position up to the modern era, however much by a mere thread. That means all the way through Unitas, who would have taken it if his abilities didn't fail him fairly early; Montana, who was the consummate winner between Graham and Brady, but wasn't dynamic enough in my opinion; Marino, who would have run away with it if he maintained near his early pace, but he too began to decline too quickly; and even Favre, whose durability and longevity are incomparable, but was just far too erratic; the latter two also lacked severely in the winning department in comparison. Graham, by contrast, had a near-perfectly consistent run, and the only knock on him is a fairly short career. He even developed a semblance of a run threat as his career went on. That's not to say these QBs didn't come close; I'd say all of them came reasonably so, and I'd definitely listen to arguments for any of them, and maybe a couple more. But Graham's combination of regularly being the best passer in the league and always a threat to win a ring wasn't matched until modern times.
4. Peyton Manning (2013-2017) - Cue the Manning-Brady arguments. Whether you have Graham eclipsed prior to the modern era or not, one could argue that Peyton claimed this spot earlier as a Colt, but 2013 feels like the perfect moment to state that he had put it beyond all reasonable doubt, having come back from a career-threatening injury, only to have the greatest passing season of all time. If not for his unfortunately abrupt decline due to the recurrence of his nerve damage, he could still be contending for this position... literally.
5. Tom Brady (2017-present) - While it would take him a few more years still to exceed Rice, I'd say he claimed this place with his most recent MVP season in 2017, helped by Manning's aforementioned skill collapse. He lost the Super Bowl to the Philly Special this year, but he had just gotten to 5 rings the year before with the greatest SB performance ever, so not too big a deal, I'd say. While Graham narrowly held onto this title for over half a century, one could argue that all of Brady, Manning, Rodgers, and Brees have surpassed him by now, and multiple currently young QBs appear likely to as well. But for anyone to pass Brady, playing until he's 50 or something ridiculous? That's going to take a long time.
What do you all think? I'm sure everyone here has differing opinions about this topic, and I want to hear all of them!