Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

I am looking for an analysis for some kick off data from you kicking gurus (please).
And opinion from everyone else is just fine, too.

I am thinking that were I a coach in today's NFL I would never return a kick off (unless it was stopping short of the goal line)... just let the ball roll into the end zone and start at the 25. Which led me to the following questions....

What percentage of kick off returns:
1. Yield better field position than the 25 yard line (KO touch back location)
2. Result in a penalty
3. Do not reach the end zone
4. Go out of bounds
5. Result in a TD
6. and after attempting a return what is the average filed position from which a team starts their possession?

I also wonder what percentage of returns, through any combination of penalties and just getting tackled, result in horrible field position... like inside the 10. Or the 5?

I am interested in both this year (specifically) and (more generally) since the last kicking rules changes were made.

I've also noticed that receivers no longer need not catch the ball and kneel for a touch back nor even cover the ball in the end zone. It seems that refs are now just signaling a touch back if the ball land in the end zone...

If, as many suspect, the NFL is trying to kill the kick-off they are doing a superb job of it.

Agree.

Seems from a coaching standpoint, unless you have a unqiue and rare talent as a KR, the risks outweight the rewards.

Yu get a free 25 yards by doing nothing.

If you return it, you get the chance at getting extra yards---and maybe a TD, but with where the KOs come from
and the chance at a fumble, taking the free 25 yards is the best bet

Ubless you have C. Patterson

It's a stacked deck for the coverage team if you return it.

Take the 25,

I now dread watching the team I am rooting for in a given game return a kickoff from the end zone because I know to expect a flag a few seconds later. It is even worse to watch a kickoff fielded inside the 10 because I know to expect a flag a few seconds later. When there are times when the returner gets beyond the 25 yard line, I know to expect a flag a few seconds later.

I would think somebody would have had to have done a risk-reward analysis on kickoffs since the touchback was moved to the 25, but I strictly deal with field goals.

This is exactly what the league intended through the gradual destruction of kickoffs over the last few seasons. They have mandated extreme penalty enforcement (most of it phantom/away from the play) to the point where it's getting to be pointless to return them. Well then if it's pointless to return them...it's pointless to have them. Boom. Finally they can get rid of this exciting play and the rest of us will be conditioned to think "well it was a flagfest with mostly touchbacks too"

The NFL just wants it gone so it's making it impossible and not enjoyable. I've seen kickoffs fielded maybe a yard deep where the kicking team really gets down there in the blink of an eye and take down the runner at the 15 or so. And for whatever reason the receiving team is penalizing for a very sketchy borderline "block in the back" and pinned all the way back. Seriously what's the point of even calling this? It's because it's punishment by the league. Anywhere in the endzone...take a knee is what the NFL is saying. There may be a hard hit if you run it out and we don't like hitting. We don't want to be sued

That's the main point behind all this

Rupert Patrick wrote:I would think somebody would have had to have done a risk-reward analysis on kickoffs since the touchback was moved to the 25, but I strictly deal with field goals.

I'm almost 100% certain Ernie Adams has

Hmm it seems like at least some teams are purposefully setting up shorter kickoffs by increasing the hang time on the kick. I've seen a plausible amount of fair catches in recent games, more or less maybe to give teams worse field position.. than having to return the kick? Is this a new counter to just kicking the ball through the endzone?

I can't help but believe the league is slowly legislating the removal of the kickoff from the game over time. Just my observation but I get the distinct impression they want to eliminate it from the game all together in attempt to eliminate high-risk situations for concussions. Time will tell.

Eventually, it won't be the game I fell in love with as a kid. I think the only "foot" action in football will be field goal attempts and punts. Kickoffs and extra point attempts seem to be falling into disfavor, and the teams are barely recognizable from season to season … Oh ghosts of Vince, Bronko, Red, Sammy, Johnny … I yearn for your day …

OK, that was a little dramatic, but I barely watch games on TV anymore that don't include my Buffalo Bills. I'm like an old man trying return soup at a deli ...

The kickoff is the play with the most potential for violent collisions and the league is smartly trying to cut down on those high-level hits by rewarding teams for not running kickoffs back. I have not done a study but it would be a great subject for a 2019 season review to learn how many kickoffs were returned even an inch beyond the 25-yard line. The conservative move, especially late in a close game, would be to avoid returning kickoffs, unless the ball is kicked short of the endzone. A non-return does not start the clock and it guarantees decent field position.

Just my opinion, but I feel the league should abandon overtime periods, except in playoff games. The players don't need the extra hits that come in overtime and the TV networks are unhappy about games running longer (which is due in part to longer television time outs and the constant officiating reviews). This idea, along with the new kickoff rules, would help the players stay healthy and I think we need to look further in that direction.

With respect to all,

Lee Elder