'78 Redskins, 6-0 to 8-8

[74_75_78_79_]

Year One after George Allen. Jack Pardee now HC. Got off to that 6-0 start in which they beat NE in the opener at Schaefer, then beat Philly the following week, and also top Dallas on MNF by that odd 9-5 score in Week #5. Three teams whom would make the playoffs in '78. Had ESPN existed at the time along with their weekly 'Power Rankings', Wash would have been sitting pretty at #1.

Then they lose their next two games - a close loss at the Vet in which they lost four fumbles, and then another loss to the G-men (who swept them in '77) in which Theismann threw 3 INTs. The following week would be Billy Kilmer's 'last-stand' for he would get the start- and the win - vs San Fran. But the following week, MNF at Colts, Kilmer tosses 2 INTs, Redskins lose, and Theismann gets his job back. #7 would lead his team to victory his first week back as starter, finally besting G-men for first time in since '76 opener, they were now 8-3, and then...

So what happened? Was it a case of the team still having many 'over-the-hill' guys and they simply being spent down the stretch? They get waffled at Dallas on Turkey Day and then the following week, get shutout at home to Dolphins. They were still in the race though going into each of the final two weeks. Penultimate game was essentially a 'play-in' game in Atlanta, but Theismann and rest of offense struggle in a close loss. Then in the finale, Redskins squander their final chance by losing to a not-good Bears squad (Pardee, of course, being their HC the year prior as well as leading them to playoffs).

[Gary Najman]

They only scored 9 TDs in their last 7 games. I believe their problem was a lack of a good wide receiver. They only had John McDaniel, Danny Buggs and Ricky Thompson. Fortunately, two years later they drafted Art Monk.

[lastcat3]

Possibly WR too but probably even more than that is explained in your post. They didn't have consistent qb play throughout the year. Kilmer was on his last legs and Theisman hadn't quite arrived yet as a top NFL qb. Theisman was much better it seemed in '79 and as a result the team was more consistent as well.

[BD Sullivan]

They had injuries on the offensive line during the second half. In addition, Lemar Parrish was playing with a broken arm, while John Riggins was dealing with a sprained ankle.

Turnovers became a huge issue after the first six games. In those first six, they coughed it up nine times (1.5 per game). Over the last 10, the percentage nearly doubled with 28 (2.8 per game).

[Rupert Patrick]

In my forthcoming manuscript, I devoted a chapter to the concept of momentum, explaining what it is and coming up with a mathematically simple method to quantify it in determining the direction of a team's fortunes changing during the course of a season. I won't explain the process here (you'll have to wait for the book), but it has to do with weighing the results each week of the regular season a different amount, and thus generating an alternate winning percentage from that at the end of the season. The difference between the alternate winning percentage and the real end of season winning percentage is momentum. After applying this momentum process to every team-season since 1933 for NFL, AFC and AAFC, I found the 1978 Redskins had the highest amount of negative momentum (meaning worst) of any team of all time, with the 1962 Redskins second, the 2006 Seahawks third, 1974 Patriots fourth and 2009 Broncos fifth. Among the best teams all time in single-season positive momentum, the 2017 49ers finished first, followed by the 1989 Lions, 1964 Raiders, 1984 Bengals and 1992 Chargers.

[BD Sullivan]

In my forthcoming manuscript, I devoted a chapter to the concept of momentum, explaining what it is and coming up with a mathematically simple method to quantify it in determining the direction of a team's fortunes changing during the course of a season. I won't explain the process here (you'll have to wait for the book), but it has to do with weighing the results each week of the regular season a different amount, and thus generating an alternate winning percentage from that at the end of the season. The difference between the alternate winning percentage and the real end of season winning percentage is momentum. After applying this momentum process to every team-season since 1933 for NFL, AFC and AAFC, I found the 1978 Redskins had the highest amount of negative momentum (meaning worst) of any team of all time, with the 1962 Redskins second, the 2006 Seahawks third, 1974 Patriots fourth and 2009 Broncos fifth. Among the best teams all time in single-season positive momentum, the 2017 49ers finished first, followed by the 1989 Lions, 1964 Raiders, 198even4 Bengals and 1992 Chargers.

The 1963 Browns started out 6-0, then came back down to split their last eight games.

Regarding the 78 Skins, four of their six wins to start the season were by less than a touchdown and could have gone the other way:

Week 1: Scored on a fumble return with 2:40 left to win 16-14.

Week 2: Had a 35-16 lead in the first minute of the fourth quarter and then had to hold on during the final six minutes after it became 35-30-the final score.

Week 5: They take a safety in the final minute to beat Dallas, 9-5.

Week 6: Come out flat in Detroit and score a TD with 1:24 left to win 21-19.

[74_75_78_79_]

Three straight years, '77-thru-'79, the Bears in the season finale had something to do with Wash not making the playoffs.

Two 'what-ifs' about Jack Pardee…

1) How do Bears do '78-and-immediately-beyond had he stayed in Chi-town after leading them to that first post-season berth of theirs in 14 years? How does it ripple-effect Buddy Ryan and Ditka?

2) What if Redskins avert that classic Dallas miracle in the '79 finale thus clinching home-field? Does that buy Pardee at least another season in the event of 1980 playing out as it actually did (6-10)? Ripple-effecting Gibbs from ever making it to town?

[Todd Pence]

I always thought the 1996 Redskins had a very similar season to this team. Started out 7-1 (after an opening day loss to Philly) and finished 9-7 and out of the money.

[sheajets]

I always thought the 1996 Redskins had a very similar season to this team. Started out 7-1 (after an opening day loss to Philly) and finished 9-7 and out of the money.

They were a bit unlucky too as two of those losses came in overtime (one being the Boomer Esiason 522 yard passing performance) but aside from that they were not awful defensively, but seemed to give up the big play at the wrong time.

They also had some aging vets on that team who were still in key roles(Henry Ellard, Darrell Green, Ed Simmons, Ken Harvey, Bill Brooks, Marc Logan) and I wonder if they just sort of ran out of gas as the season progressed

[rhickok1109]

I always thought the 1996 Redskins had a very similar season to this team. Started out 7-1 (after an opening day loss to Philly) and finished 9-7 and out of the money.

They were a bit unlucky too as two of those losses came in overtime (one being the Boomer Esiason 522 yard passing performance) but aside from that they were not awful defensively, but seemed to give up the big play at the wrong time.

They also had some aging vets on that team who were still in key roles(Henry Ellard, Darrell Green, Ed Simmons, Ken Harvey, Bill Brooks, Marc Logan) and I wonder if they just sort of ran out of gas as the season progressed

That was always the rap on Allen's "over the hill gang" approach to personnel and has been widely cited as the main reason for his 2-7 record in the playoffs.