2018 NFL Playoffs

[Rupert Patrick]

With the 2018 NFL playoffs starting this, I thought I would roll out my annual prognostications:

Based on my PPS (Playoff Prediction System), which is a methodology I developed based on an analysis of every postseason game in NFL/AFL/AAFC history that predicts the winners of postseason games based on historical trends and information that is available before the fact, here are the probabilities of each team of winning their conference, and the Super Bowl,in parenthesis:

1 – New Orleans (.50, .32)
2 – LA Rams (.22, .13)
3 – Chicago (.20, .13)
4 – Kansas City (.34, .15)
5 – New England (.29, .11)
6 – Baltimore (.12,.05)
7 – LA Chargers (.11,.04)
8 – Houston (.10, .04)
9 – Seattle (.06, .02)
10 – Indianapolis (.04, .01)
11 – Dallas (.016, ,005)
12 – Philadelphia (.008, .002)

The rankings are based on how the system predicts the teams would fare in round-robin play, with each team on the list being predicted to defeat every team below them on the list. I agree with the listings for the most part, although I might bump the Chiefs and Patriots above the Bears based on KC and NE having more previous playoff experience and a better QB.
If there is a surprise team to win it all, the system predicts it might be the Chicago Bears, as they have the strongest defense of the remaining teams. Good defense generally has a slight edge over good offense in the postseason, I believe, and the Bears are this year’s Cinderella team, led by a rookie head coach and a second year QB and have won 9 of their past 10 games.

For the Super Bowl, it predicts the Saints to defeat the Chiefs 28-24.

Of the four games this weekend, here is what the system says:

Colts at Texans – The Texans have a 65 percent chance of winning the game, and the predicted final score is 26-20 Texans. The oddsmakers have the Colts a one-point favorite, but I like the Texans. The Texans have the edge on defense, the Colts have the edge on offense, and I think Deshaun Watson will be the difference.

Seahawks at Cowboys – Seattle has a 59 percent chance of beating the Cowboys, final score 24-21 Seattle. The Cowboys are a two-point favorite, and while the Seahawks have won 6 of their final 7 games, the Cowboys have won 7 of their final 8 games. I basically think this game is a tossup, and in such cases, I generally go with the team with the better QB, which means I think Seattle will win.

LA Chargers at Baltimore – The Ravens have a 55 percent chance of beating the Chargers, final score 23-21 Ravens. The bettors have the Ravens favored by three, and I think they’ll squeak out a win over the Chargers.

Eagles at Bears – Chicago has an 81 percent chance of winning, and the final score is 28-16 Eagles. Bears are favored by 6.5 points, and I pretty much agree with the final score prediction, although I think it might be lower scoring.

[JWL]

I'm thinking the Texans, Seahawks, Ravens and Bears will win this weekend. If I went 0-4 I would not be surprised.

[sluggermatt15]

I don't get the disrespect for Chicago and Dallas.

The Bears have one of the top defenses in the league and Nick Foles is not 100% healthy. If he takes a few big hits, he could get knocked out of the game (again). Personally, I wouldn't feel comfortable relying on Nate Sudfeld to win me a playoff game on the road. I'd take the Bears defense and Trubisky, even though he's a rookie in the playoffs.

The Cowboys are another team that has a very strong defense. This team shut down and exposed the Saints several weeks ago. If they can shut down NOLA, why can't they slow down the less-explosive Seahawks? In my opinion, all Dallas has to do is mix up their plays on offense and play their game on defense. If Elliott gets 100 yards on the ground, I think it's a Dallas victory.

[74_75_78_79_]

What do I know, after all I did pick them to finish 1-15 before the start of the season, but the Colts are hot on both sides of the ball. I see them winning this upcoming 1st-Rounder; and then...(as was case in '95 divisionals)...topping #1-seed Chiefs at Arrowhead. KC is clearly no paper-tiger, especially given their O and an historic opening statement from Mahomes (he's in for a great future), but the D is a liability and do see an early-exit. Seahawks are in for quite a slugfest at Big D, but I think they'll advance and actually be representing the NFC this February.


That's all the playoff-predicting I'll do. Enjoy the post-season, everyone!

[sheajets]

Colts just all over Houston early on in that one. Watson all out of sync. Hope they can come back and make it competitive

[lastcat3]

I really think the Colts have a great chance of beating the Chiefs next week. Actually think the Colts might be the AFC representative in the Super Bowl. It's a shame Dallas didn't have this well-rounded of team when Romo was playing. I think if they did the Cowboys would have been 12-4 virtually every season and likely would have snagged a sixth Super Bowl victory by now.

[sheajets]

Happy for the Colts after that stunt the immature McDaniels pulled last year, they found themselves a great coach and orchestrated and incredible turnaround. And finally Luck has protection

Dallas truly has something of a no name defense. Sound, efficient. Great tacklers, great cover guys, fast and they don't beat themselves.

[lastcat3]

Dallas truly has something of a no name defense. Sound, efficient. Great tacklers, great cover guys, fast and they don't beat themselves.

Is someone else other than Jones General Managing this team now? Did Jones quietly step down from the role?

[JWL]

I don't get the disrespect for Chicago and Dallas.

It is because most people do not like either quarterback.

I thought the first three games would be close and either team could win. I thought the Bears would win by double digits. I was so off yesterday, though. So nobody should pay too much about my picks for today's games. I have had massive problems predicting Wild Card round games in recent years or so it seems.

[sluggermatt15]

I don't get the disrespect for Chicago and Dallas.

It is because most people do not like either quarterback.

I thought the first three games would be close and either team could win. I thought the Bears would win by double digits. I was so off yesterday, though. So nobody should pay too much about my picks for today's games. I have had massive problems predicting Wild Card round games in recent years or so it seems.

I don't think Dak or Trubisky are great QBs, but they are not the cornerstone of either team. Dallas' offense revolves around Elliott. He got going last night, touched the ball more than 20 times, and earned 100+ yards on the ground. Dak feeds off of that. And that is observable. Look at Week 17 when Elliott did not play. Dak had to carry the load and the Cowboys barely won over a weak Giants team.