Richard Sherman
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74_75_78_79_
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Richard Sherman
If this is the end for RS - or at least if, say, he’s never selected to another Pro Bowl - could be possibly still be a Canton candidate despite his very short peak-time such the case with Sayers and TD? In those three straight All Pro years he was widely considered the best at his position, some feeling he was league MVP. Winning that (franchise’s first) Ring in ’13 don’t hurt either.
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JuggernautJ
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Re: Richard Sherman
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... erRi00.htm
His fame as a founding member of "The Legion of Boom" will also help his cause.
What might be the determining factor, however, is if he makes the "Team of the Decade" for the 2010's (and, of course, how his career progresses from here on out).
A Ronnie Lott-type second half of a career would probably make his induction likely.
Ronnie, for comparison's sake:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... ttRo00.htm
His fame as a founding member of "The Legion of Boom" will also help his cause.
What might be the determining factor, however, is if he makes the "Team of the Decade" for the 2010's (and, of course, how his career progresses from here on out).
A Ronnie Lott-type second half of a career would probably make his induction likely.
Ronnie, for comparison's sake:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... ttRo00.htm
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JohnTurney
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Re: Richard Sherman
Assuming he plays 3-4 more years at a non Pro Bowl level but does pick off some passes. It will be interesting if anyone on the committee will convert interceptions to the legue average.
Night Train picked off 68 passes, the most of corners. Now, he did play safety one year and picked off 10. But for now I give him credit as pure corner, until we can do it for everyone...it would be hard comparison
Anyway, from 1952-65 6.2% of the passes were picked off
From 2011-2017 2.6% of the passes have been picked off
Since 2011 Sherman has picked off 32 passes. mont in the NFL, by 5. And he's not exactly a pigeon, a CB who gets picks because he gets picked on. The Seattle pideon was always whoever was on the other side.
So, picks were higher in Lane's era by 239%
So converting Lane to 2011-17 makes much lower (lower than Sherman in many for seasons)
or converting Sherman's by multiplying by 2.39 makes him extremely high (higher than Lane in many fewer seasons)
Lane was the top INT man for his era, 1952-65 by a margin of 16 or 24%
Sherman is top INT man for his era (so far) by a margin of 5 of 16%
Lane averaged 7 picks per season.
Sherman averages 5 picks per season.
Stats can be played with in many ways, but in this sense, there is something to it because of how the passing game has evolved into shorter passers and more precision passing. Turnovers are much more frowned upon. So, picks are harder to get now than in previous eras, fewer opportunities for "pickable" passes.
Amazingly, the next best CBs in picks from 2011-2017 have 21...so Sherman leads CBs by 11.
So, after 7 seasons—
Eye test: Looked like a HOFer to me in the many games I have seen
Team test: Defense was best of NFL, or close, won SB
Honors: 3 All-Pro, 4 PBs (but was not PB after 2012, when he was AP) so to me 5 "Pro Bowls" or 5 excellent seasons in terms of honors
Testimonials: I have not looked any up, harder to find than before, but some WRs must think he's one of the best
Intangibles: Have not really given it thought, but a team leader you'd think
Stats: Interceptions are top in NFL in his era, doesn't blitz, so no real sacks. But HOF level stats so far in terms of picks
So, the question remains... if he never played another down, HOF? Probably not, but maybe. (JJ Watt's 3 DPOYs give him big edge there)
If he plays 4-5 more seasons as a good level and picks off passes at same rate? HOF? Maybe, even probably
If he plays 4-5 more years and gets a couple more Pro Bowls and maybe a ring with Pats? HOF? Likely if not for sure.
Night Train picked off 68 passes, the most of corners. Now, he did play safety one year and picked off 10. But for now I give him credit as pure corner, until we can do it for everyone...it would be hard comparison
Anyway, from 1952-65 6.2% of the passes were picked off
From 2011-2017 2.6% of the passes have been picked off
Since 2011 Sherman has picked off 32 passes. mont in the NFL, by 5. And he's not exactly a pigeon, a CB who gets picks because he gets picked on. The Seattle pideon was always whoever was on the other side.
So, picks were higher in Lane's era by 239%
So converting Lane to 2011-17 makes much lower (lower than Sherman in many for seasons)
or converting Sherman's by multiplying by 2.39 makes him extremely high (higher than Lane in many fewer seasons)
Lane was the top INT man for his era, 1952-65 by a margin of 16 or 24%
Sherman is top INT man for his era (so far) by a margin of 5 of 16%
Lane averaged 7 picks per season.
Sherman averages 5 picks per season.
Stats can be played with in many ways, but in this sense, there is something to it because of how the passing game has evolved into shorter passers and more precision passing. Turnovers are much more frowned upon. So, picks are harder to get now than in previous eras, fewer opportunities for "pickable" passes.
Amazingly, the next best CBs in picks from 2011-2017 have 21...so Sherman leads CBs by 11.
So, after 7 seasons—
Eye test: Looked like a HOFer to me in the many games I have seen
Team test: Defense was best of NFL, or close, won SB
Honors: 3 All-Pro, 4 PBs (but was not PB after 2012, when he was AP) so to me 5 "Pro Bowls" or 5 excellent seasons in terms of honors
Testimonials: I have not looked any up, harder to find than before, but some WRs must think he's one of the best
Intangibles: Have not really given it thought, but a team leader you'd think
Stats: Interceptions are top in NFL in his era, doesn't blitz, so no real sacks. But HOF level stats so far in terms of picks
So, the question remains... if he never played another down, HOF? Probably not, but maybe. (JJ Watt's 3 DPOYs give him big edge there)
If he plays 4-5 more seasons as a good level and picks off passes at same rate? HOF? Maybe, even probably
If he plays 4-5 more years and gets a couple more Pro Bowls and maybe a ring with Pats? HOF? Likely if not for sure.
Last edited by JohnTurney on Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TanksAndSpartans
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Re: Richard Sherman
John, good analysis, but for the picks per season part, I also think you need to adjust for the season having a length of 12 games for about 10 years of Lane's career.JohnTurney wrote: Lane averaged 7 picks per season.
Sherman averages 5 picks per season.
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JohnTurney
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Re: Richard Sherman
I already accounted for that. Night Train averaged 4.9 INTs per season but 6.9 per 16 games, which rounds to 7. Sherman averages 4.6 per season but 4.9 per 16 games which rounds to 5. I used the "per 16 games" for both players in my post, but I should have specified that.TanksAndSpartans wrote:John, good analysis, but for the picks per season part, I also think you need to adjust for the season having a length of 12 games for about 10 years of Lane's career.JohnTurney wrote: Lane averaged 7 picks per season.
Sherman averages 5 picks per season.
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JuggernautJ
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Re: Richard Sherman
That's a pretty amazing statistical difference.JohnTurney wrote: Anyway, from 1952-65 6.2% of the passes were picked off
From 2011-2017 2.6% of the passes have been picked off
Do you happen to know the QB completion percentage from similar dates?
I bet it would be similarly different.
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bachslunch
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Re: Richard Sherman
John, great analysis on this. My thoughts will pale in comparison, but will offer them anyway.
His honors of 3/4/10s? are pretty decent for a CB of the time, and he’s been seen as one of the best at his position for a good few years. Currently, he has only played seven seasons; if he retired right now, it would be interesting to see if he gets in, though my guess would be yes after a good-sized wait.
He was just signed to a 3-year contract by the ‘Niners, though, so he’s probably not done yet. And he’s at the point where he really only needs to add about 3-4 years of filler to guarantee election. Hopefully he comes back okay from his achilles injury, one that might be an issue for a CB if it impedes him.
His honors of 3/4/10s? are pretty decent for a CB of the time, and he’s been seen as one of the best at his position for a good few years. Currently, he has only played seven seasons; if he retired right now, it would be interesting to see if he gets in, though my guess would be yes after a good-sized wait.
He was just signed to a 3-year contract by the ‘Niners, though, so he’s probably not done yet. And he’s at the point where he really only needs to add about 3-4 years of filler to guarantee election. Hopefully he comes back okay from his achilles injury, one that might be an issue for a CB if it impedes him.
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TanksAndSpartans
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Re: Richard Sherman
Got it - thanks for the clarification.JohnTurney wrote:I already accounted for that. Night Train averaged 4.9 INTs per season but 6.9 per 16 games, which rounds to 7. Sherman averages 4.6 per season but 4.9 per 16 games which rounds to 5. I used the "per 16 games" for both players in my post, but I should have specified that.
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JohnTurney
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Re: Richard Sherman
JuggernautJ wrote:That's a pretty amazing statistical difference.JohnTurney wrote: Anyway, from 1952-65 6.2% of the passes were picked off
From 2011-2017 2.6% of the passes have been picked off
Do you happen to know the QB completion percentage from similar dates?
I bet it would be similarly different.
I can get that... but yes, completion percentage has skyrocketed...
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JohnTurney
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Re: Richard Sherman
Sherman signed a incentive contract they if he makes Pro Bowl this year he gets $3 million and it makes his 2019 and 2020 contract money guaranteedbachslunch wrote:He was just signed to a 3-year contract by the ‘Niners, though, so he’s probably not done yet. And he’s at the point where he really only needs to add about 3-4 years of filler to guarantee election. Hopefully he comes back okay from his achilles injury, one that might be an issue for a CB if it impedes him.
So, he has HUGe incentive to make Pro Bowl