2017 NFL Playoffs

[Rupert Patrick]

I've spent the day crunching the numbers, and it's time for my annual Super Bowl odds (percentages of each team winning their conference and the Super Bowl in parenthesis):

1 - Philadelphia (42, 27)
2 - New England (45, 22)
3 - Minnesota (37, 21)
4 - Jacksonville (28, 11)
5 - Pittsburgh (17, 6)
6 - Los Angeles (10, 5)
7 - New Orleans (7, 4)
8 - Kansas City (8, 3)
9 - Atlanta (2, 1)
10 - Tennessee (1, <1)
11 - Carolina (1 , <1)
12 - Buffalo (1 , <1)

I was surprised the Steelers and Rams didn't match up as well with the other upper-tier teams as I thought. The Steelers, for example, despite the presence of Le'Veon Bell, have the fewest offensive rushing yards of any of the teams in the postseason, and Bell's 4.0 yards per carry is barely above the league average. The Rams have made historic improvements on offense this season and have improved on defense but they need to make more improvements on defense before they'll go all the way.

If there is a surprise team in the postseason this year, it is Jacksonville. They'll get past the Bills, and I think they'll upset the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the Divisional playoffs and face off against New England for the AFC Championship. They've got the second best defense in the NFL next to Minnesota, and were fifth in the NFL in points scored.

The Titans and Bills got into the playoffs this year while two stronger AFC teams that probably would have made better playoff teams, the Ravens and Chargers, are out. While I am happy to see the Bills in the playoffs, they are one of the weaker teams I have seen in the postseason in recent memory. While I don't agree with the prediction, my system gives the Bills a one-in-1,033 probability of winning the Super Bowl. I think any team in the playoffs has at least a one percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Has there ever been a team who had a mid-season streak where they lost six of seven games but made the playoffs? I can't think of one, but the Chiefs did it this year after starting out 5-0, writing off the middle of their season, and winning their final four games. I think the Chiefs will beat Tennessee before New England ends their wacky season.

LA should advance to the Divisional Round, where the Vikings will barely get by them, and New Orleans has too much offense for the Panthers,and will meet Philadelphia in the Divisional round. It's hard to gauge the Eagles, as I have them the most likely team to win, I don't have the Carson Wentz injury factor built into it. Foles is capable of pulling a Jeff Hostetler, but I just don't see it happening. I think the Vikings defense will shut him and the Eagles down in Philadelphia in the NFC title game, and Minnesota goes to their first Super Bowl since I was in the seventh grade.

There the Vikings will face the Patriots, who held off Jacksonville to get back to the Super Bowl. My system has the Patriots winning by a third of a point over the Vikings, and that is with the Home Field Advantage in the Vikings favor, but this will be the first Super Bowl where the Home Field Advantage plays a role. Also, I have a feeling the Vikings match up better against the Pats. I like Minnesota to win the Super Bowl 27-23.

[Reaser]

Patriots/Steelers winner beats whoever comes from the NFC -- I could see any of the six teams winning the NFC.

[JeffreyMiller]

I've spent the day crunching the numbers, and it's time for my annual Super Bowl odds (percentages of each team winning their conference and the Super Bowl in parenthesis):

1 - Philadelphia (42, 27)
2 - New England (45, 22)
3 - Minnesota (37, 21)
4 - Jacksonville (28, 11)
5 - Pittsburgh (17, 6)
6 - Los Angeles (10, 5)
7 - New Orleans (7, 4)
8 - Kansas City (8, 3)
9 - Atlanta (2, 1)
10 - Tennessee (1, <1)
11 - Carolina (1 , <1)
12 - Buffalo (1 , <1)

I was surprised the Steelers and Rams didn't match up as well with the other upper-tier teams as I thought. The Steelers, for example, despite the presence of Le'Veon Bell, have the fewest offensive rushing yards of any of the teams in the postseason, and Bell's 4.0 yards per carry is barely above the league average. The Rams have made historic improvements on offense this season and have improved on defense but they need to make more improvements on defense before they'll go all the way.

If there is a surprise team in the postseason this year, it is Jacksonville. They'll get past the Bills, and I think they'll upset the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the Divisional playoffs and face off against New England for the AFC Championship. They've got the second best defense in the NFL next to Minnesota, and were fifth in the NFL in points scored.

The Titans and Bills got into the playoffs this year while two stronger AFC teams that probably would have made better playoff teams, the Ravens and Chargers, are out. While I am happy to see the Bills in the playoffs, they are one of the weaker teams I have seen in the postseason in recent memory. While I don't agree with the prediction, my system gives the Bills a one-in-1,033 probability of winning the Super Bowl. I think any team in the playoffs has at least a one percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Has there ever been a team who had a mid-season streak where they lost six of seven games but made the playoffs? I can't think of one, but the Chiefs did it this year after starting out 5-0, writing off the middle of their season, and winning their final four games. I think the Chiefs will beat Tennessee before New England ends their wacky season.

LA should advance to the Divisional Round, where the Vikings will barely get by them, and New Orleans has too much offense for the Panthers,and will meet Philadelphia in the Divisional round. It's hard to gauge the Eagles, as I have them the most likely team to win, I don't have the Carson Wentz injury factor built into it. Foles is capable of pulling a Jeff Hostetler, but I just don't see it happening. I think the Vikings defense will shut him and the Eagles down in Philadelphia in the NFC title game, and Minnesota goes to their first Super Bowl since I was in the seventh grade.

There the Vikings will face the Patriots, who held off Jacksonville to get back to the Super Bowl. My system has the Patriots winning by a third of a point over the Vikings, and that is with the Home Field Advantage in the Vikings favor, but this will be the first Super Bowl where the Home Field Advantage plays a role. Also, I have a feeling the Vikings match up better against the Pats. I like Minnesota to win the Super Bowl 27-23.

I'm a Bills fan, Rupert, and I'd say your analysis of them and their chances in this year's derby is spot on. If LeSean McCoy is out, I can see them losing badly in Jax. However, I think if he is healthy, the Bills have a chance as long as their defense can play up to the standards set at the beginning of the season. That said, if they get by the Jags, it's Waterloo in New England a week later.

[John Grasso]

I'm a Bills fan, Rupert, and I'd say your analysis of them and their chances in this year's derby is spot on. If LeSean McCoy is out, I can see them losing badly in Jax. However, I think if he is healthy, the Bills have a chance as long as their defense can play up to the standards set at the beginning of the season. That said, if they get by the Jags, it's Waterloo in New England a week later.

Unless there's a blizzard in New England that day.

[Jay Z]

I've spent the day crunching the numbers, and it's time for my annual Super Bowl odds (percentages of each team winning their conference and the Super Bowl in parenthesis):

1 - Philadelphia (42, 27)
2 - New England (45, 22)
3 - Minnesota (37, 21)
4 - Jacksonville (28, 11)
5 - Pittsburgh (17, 6)
6 - Los Angeles (10, 5)
7 - New Orleans (7, 4)
8 - Kansas City (8, 3)
9 - Atlanta (2, 1)
10 - Tennessee (1, <1)
11 - Carolina (1 , <1)
12 - Buffalo (1 , <1)

Rupert, can you give me/us some reference points? Is this an unusually close distribution, or not so much? In other years, do you have a clear favorite in your system?

I usually just hope for close games. There were a lot of stinkers last year, with only PIT-KC, GB-DAL, and the Super Bowl being fewer than 10 points. That's not a great set of games. Hope we have more entertainment this year!

[Rupert Patrick]

I've spent the day crunching the numbers, and it's time for my annual Super Bowl odds (percentages of each team winning their conference and the Super Bowl in parenthesis):

1 - Philadelphia (42, 27)
2 - New England (45, 22)
3 - Minnesota (37, 21)
4 - Jacksonville (28, 11)
5 - Pittsburgh (17, 6)
6 - Los Angeles (10, 5)
7 - New Orleans (7, 4)
8 - Kansas City (8, 3)
9 - Atlanta (2, 1)
10 - Tennessee (1, <1)
11 - Carolina (1 , <1)
12 - Buffalo (1 , <1)

Rupert, can you give me/us some reference points? Is this an unusually close distribution, or not so much? In other years, do you have a clear favorite in your system?

I usually just hope for close games. There were a lot of stinkers last year, with only PIT-KC, GB-DAL, and the Super Bowl being fewer than 10 points. That's not a great set of games. Hope we have more entertainment this year!

It is a close distribution at the top. About 50 percent of the time since 1990 in conferences, the team with the highest percentage of going to the Super Bowl is over 50 percent. About 1/3 of the time, the team with the highest percentage of winning the Super Bowl is over 40 percent. This is only the fifth time since 1990 that the team with the highest percentage of winning the Super Bowl is under 30 percent; the other seasons are 1997,2003, 2009 and 2011. As in those cases, in 2017 the system sees that there is no truly dominant team, but there are several pretty much equally strong teams. In 2017, the equally strong teams are the Patriots, Eagles and Vikings, although I was unable to factor into the system the fact the Eagles are using a second string QB. I think the Vikings and Rams are the biggest beneficiaries of that if and when they play Philadelphia in the postseason.

With the previous thread about surprise teams and Cinderella teams, we have two surprise teams in the playoffs this year, the Rams and Jaguars. According to my definition of surprise and Cinderella teams, if either should reach their respective conference championship games, they become Cinderella teams. I think Jacksonville has the best chance of doing so.

Another thing I wanted to say in my previous thread about the playoff games is that if there is going to be an upset this year in the Wild Card round, it is going to be in the NFC. I think the AFC home teams will both cruise to victories, but the NFC Wild Card games will be close.

The Rams lack of playoff experience could work against them, and also, the Rams were 4-4 at home, 7-1 on the road. The Falcons were 5-3 at home and on the road. How many teams with a QB making his first playoff appearance and a rookie head coach have won a playoff game? I can't think of any other than Otto Graham and Paul Brown in the 1946 AAFC Championship game.

[Jay Z]

The Rams lack of playoff experience could work against them, and also, the Rams were 4-4 at home, 7-1 on the road. The Falcons were 5-3 at home and on the road. How many teams with a QB making his first playoff appearance and a rookie head coach have won a playoff game? I can't think of any other than Otto Graham and Paul Brown in the 1946 AAFC Championship game.

Generally I think young QBs outperform older QBs in the playoffs. 3-5 years of experience is ideal IMO. Goff is a little short of that, but it wouldn't be a big concern for me.

I can't think of too many teams meeting both of your criteria. The 1975 Colts. They couldn't have been favored against Pittsburgh anyway. Probably the best effort of their three playoff games as well; the 1977 Raiders were a team on the decline, and if you can't win at home with both a INT return and KO return, you're never going to do it.

The 1977 Broncos made the Super Bowl with a rookie head coach. Morton had playoff experience, but had always played poorly, so I'm not sure how much his experience helped. The 1981 49ers and 1982 Redskins went all the way with coaches who had never made the playoffs before, and QBs in their first time in the playoffs.

[Rupert Patrick]

The Rams lack of playoff experience could work against them, and also, the Rams were 4-4 at home, 7-1 on the road. The Falcons were 5-3 at home and on the road. How many teams with a QB making his first playoff appearance and a rookie head coach have won a playoff game? I can't think of any other than Otto Graham and Paul Brown in the 1946 AAFC Championship game.

Generally I think young QBs outperform older QBs in the playoffs. 3-5 years of experience is ideal IMO. Goff is a little short of that, but it wouldn't be a big concern for me.

I can't think of too many teams meeting both of your criteria. The 1975 Colts. They couldn't have been favored against Pittsburgh anyway. Probably the best effort of their three playoff games as well; the 1977 Raiders were a team on the decline, and if you can't win at home with both a INT return and KO return, you're never going to do it.

The 1977 Broncos made the Super Bowl with a rookie head coach. Morton had playoff experience, but had always played poorly, so I'm not sure how much his experience helped. The 1981 49ers and 1982 Redskins went all the way with coaches who had never made the playoffs before, and QBs in their first time in the playoffs.

Brady and Belichick is one parallel I can think of, as Brady was practically a rookie in 2001, and Belichick had coached the Browns to a postseason victory against the Pats in 1994. (Which always makes for a great trivia question that stumps most football fans - Which team did Bill Belichick defeat for his first postseason victory as a head coach? The New England Patriots.) I think Waterfield (and Warner, if he qualifies) were the only other real rookies to lead their teams to titles in their first seasons.

[Bob Gill]

I think Waterfield (and Warner, if he qualifies) were the only other real rookies to lead their teams to titles in their first seasons.

Don't forget Sammy Baugh in 1937. Sure, he wasn't technically a quarterback, because they played the single wing, but he was calling the plays, and he did pass for 300-some yards and three TDs -- a game that would easily earn him a Super Bowl MVP even today. I think he qualifies.

[74_75_78_79_]

In that most-likely event of the Vikings hosting the Super Bowl, how will the ticket distribution go about as compared to a regular home Vikings game? I’m assuming all season-ticket holders will get automatic dibs. But wouldn’t season-ticket holders of the opposing team all have dibs as well? And then all of those nationwide attending the event no matter who the participants are. I’m sure a share of them won’t even be Vikings-fans. Exactly how much “at-home” would they feel compared to a regular home-game?

And keep this in mind...the AFC champ will technically be the home team meaning they’ll be in the dark unis instead!