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Who’s ahead so far for all-10s team consideration? Thoughts.

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 7:31 am
by bachslunch
We're seven years into the 10s decade, so while it's a little early it's not fully unreasonable to speculate. If folks like Jadeveon Clowney, Marcus Peters, Landon Collins, Ezekiel Elliott, or Dak Prescott are the real deal over the next 2-3 years, they could work their way in, which is where much of the uncertainty lies. Note this is who I'm guessing the all decade team voters might pick (they sometimes reach back into the previous decade deeper than one might expect -- thus Jared Allen and Andy Lee are listed). Regardless, some thoughts, with honors for non-skill position folks:

C: Nick Mangold (4/7), Travis Frederick (3/3). Possible also for Ryan Kalil (2/5) and Maurkice Pouncey (2/5).

G: Marshal Yanda (5/6), Jahri Evans (4/6), Zack Martin (3/3), Logan Mankins (2/7). Possible also for Carl Nicks (3/2), if maybe not Mike Iupati (1/4).

OT: Joe Thomas (7/10), Jason Peters (4/9), Tyron Smith (4/4). The fourth slot looks to be up for grabs, and might go to someone like Ryan Clady (2/4), Joe Staley (1/5), or even Jake Long (1/4).

TE: Probably Rob Gronkowski and Jason Witten, though Jimmy Graham or even Tony Gonzalez could get seriously considered.

WR: Not the easiest to guess. Likely candidates include Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson.

QB: Aaron Rodgers probably. The second could be anyone from Drew Brees to Peyton Manning to Tom Brady to Russell Wilson.

RB: Adrian Peterson for sure, with the three other likely folks being Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, and Arian Foster. Perhaps Steven Jackson or Frank Gore might get brief consideration.

FB: Vonta Leach (3/3), Mike Tolbert (2/3).

DE: J.J. Watt (4/4), Cameron Wake (3/5), Justin Smith (3/5), Jared Allen (4/5).

DT: Ndamukong Suh (4/5), Haloti Ngata (3/5), Geno Atkins (3/5), Aaron Donald (3/3). Perhaps Gerald McCoy (1/5) or Vince Wilfork (1/5) might get a brief look.

LB: Patrick Willis (6/7), Von Miller (5/5), Luke Kuechly (4/4), Navorro Bowman (4/3), Khalil Mack (2/2), and Elvis Dumervil (2/5) seem most likely. There’s always Terrell Suggs (1/6), Clay Mathews III (1/6), and Robert Mathis (1/5) on the periphery.

CB: Darrelle Revis (5/7), Richard Sherman (4/4), and Patrick Peterson (3/6) look very likely. The fourth could be Chris Harris (2/3) or even Aqib Talib (1/4).

S: Eric Berry (3/5), Eric Weddle (4/4), and Earl Thomas (3/5) look very likely. The fourth could be Kam Chancellor (0/4) or even Troy Polamalu (2/3 in the decade, 4/7 overall).

PK: Most likely Justin Tucker (2/2) and Stephen Gostkowski (2/4).

P: Most likely Johnny Hekker (4/3) and Andy Lee (3/3).

KR/PR: Who knows? Could be Devin Hester, Cordarelle Patterson, Darren Sproles, Jacoby Jones, or Adam Jones.

ST: Matthew Slater (4/6).

Could be wrong, but that’s my guess so far. Comments welcome and encouraged.

Re: Who’s ahead so far for all-10s team consideration? Thoug

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:13 pm
by JeffreyMiller
Has Kalil Mack been in the league that long?

Re: Who’s ahead so far for all-10s team consideration? Thoug

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:16 pm
by TanksAndSpartans
Nice idea for a post. Sorry to go off topic, but I've seen a lot of posters use shorthand notation for honors like x/y/z and I'm never sure what it means. I checked pro football reference for the first two players: C: Nick Mangold (4/7), Travis Frederick (3/3). The first number matches Pro Bowls. What's the second number? It's not matching First Team All-Pro. Thanks.

Re: Who’s ahead so far for all-10s team consideration? Thoug

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:41 pm
by bachslunch
TanksAndSpartans wrote:Nice idea for a post. Sorry to go off topic, but I've seen a lot of posters use shorthand notation for honors like x/y/z and I'm never sure what it means. I checked pro football reference for the first two players: C: Nick Mangold (4/7), Travis Frederick (3/3). The first number matches Pro Bowls. What's the second number? It's not matching First Team All-Pro. Thanks.
It's my own shorthand: for (4/7), first number means 1st team all pro by any organization, second number is pro bowls. I don't stop at just AP first team all pro selections, considering all to be equal.

Often I'd add a third entry for all decade teams (4/7/90s), but that's not applicable here.

Re: Who’s ahead so far for all-10s team consideration? Thoug

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:41 pm
by Jeremy Crowhurst
TanksAndSpartans wrote:Nice idea for a post. Sorry to go off topic, but I've seen a lot of posters use shorthand notation for honors like x/y/z and I'm never sure what it means. I checked pro football reference for the first two players: C: Nick Mangold (4/7), Travis Frederick (3/3). The first number matches Pro Bowls. What's the second number? It's not matching First Team All-Pro. Thanks.
The second number is the number of Pro Bowls, the first number appears to be the number of years the player was a first-team all-pro with any of the organizations PFR tracks, which currently includes Pro Football Focus and the Pro Football Writers Association.

It's a bit unusual, to be sure -- on a site where so many people get very testy about the idea that nobody cares about any All Pro selections other than AP, the reality is that nobody on this site cares about, or cites, any All Pro selections other than AP. It's good to see that bachslunch has done his research to give a fuller picture of these guys' honours.

Re: Who’s ahead so far for all-10s team consideration? Thoug

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:43 pm
by bachslunch
JeffreyMiller wrote:Has Kalil Mack been in the league that long?
You're right, Mack is (2/2). I likely copied Dumervil's honors by mistake here. Thanks for catching the error. Have corrected above.

Re: Who’s ahead so far for all-10s team consideration? Thoug

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:54 pm
by Jeremy Crowhurst
For the QBs, Brady has two rings, and Pro Bowl every year. Brees has four 5,000 yard seasons, and by far the most black ink, leading in yards five times and twice in TDs. I think I prefer them both over Rodgers.

Re: Who’s ahead so far for all-10s team consideration? Thoug

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 1:23 pm
by TanksAndSpartans
Thanks everyone for the clarification on the notation.

Re: Who’s ahead so far for all-10s team consideration? Thoug

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 1:50 pm
by bachslunch
Jeremy Crowhurst wrote:For the QBs, Brady has two rings, and Pro Bowl every year. Brees has four 5,000 yard seasons, and by far the most black ink, leading in yards five times and twice in TDs. I think I prefer them both over Rodgers.
Good points. Will leave Rodgers in original post and add Brees as an option. Thanks.

Re: Who’s ahead so far for all-10s team consideration? Thoug

Posted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 3:09 pm
by rhickok1109
Jeremy Crowhurst wrote:For the QBs, Brady has two rings, and Pro Bowl every year. Brees has four 5,000 yard seasons, and by far the most black ink, leading in yards five times and twice in TDs. I think I prefer them both over Rodgers.
I can understand ranking Brady above Rodgers, but not Brees, mainly because of interceptions. (Of course, I'm a Packer fan :) )

Since 2010, Brees has been in double digits in interceptions every year, with a high of 22 in 2010. Rodgers threw 11 in 2010 and has never been in double digits since. In the span we're considering, Brees has thrown 110 interceptions, an average of 15.7 a year, and his TD/INT ratio is 2.4. Rodgers has thrown only 51 interceptions, an average of 7.3 a season, and his TD/INT ratio is nearly double Brees's, at 4.7.