Postgame thoughts on Super Bowl LI
Posted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 3:09 pm
*Weird Super Bowl when you look at the stats. Atlanta lost 44 yards in sacks yet still averaged 7.5 yards per play. Matt Ryan had a passer rating of 144+. Yet the Patriots had several sustained drives in the 2nd half and had a big advantage in 1st downs.
*It seemed like the Patriots thought they were going to be able to run the ball on the Falcons, yet Blount was completely shut down. The Patriots had some initial success throwing, and Blount’s early fumble was big as the Patriots had the momentum.
*Atlanta’s first scoring drive had two immediate big pass plays to Julio Jones. The Falcons went up 7-0, and Jones was pretty much an afterthought until the end of the game. Only 4 targets (yet 4 catches).
*The Patriots thought they could free themselves from Atlanta’s tight coverage with shallow crossing routes over the middle. This did not work, yet the Patriots kept at it. Brady was unusually inaccurate with his short throws, and Atlanta reacted quickly to tackle the WRs after they caught short passes. New England had better success throwing wide to their WRs in the 10-15 yard range, and IMO this changed the course of the game. Even when Atlanta got sacks, Brady was unfazed and could regularly complete his intermediate passes for 1st downs.
*I thought the INT return TD was big, as New England was driving and seemed to be on their way to getting the score 14-7 at half. The Atlanta safety did not lay back, as the Patriots had stopped throwing deep, and correctly guessed another crossing route. After the Atlanta DB caught the ball, I gave Brady about a 5% chance of tripping up the INT returner. It didn’t happen (although he came closer than I thought).
*In the 2nd half, when the Patriots offense was still misfiring on their crossing routes, I thought the Falcons had the game well in hand. Just pound the ball, don’t turn it over, and New England won’t have enough time to come back.
*James White was important, as he had the ability to make the quick-reacting Falcon defenders miss him and then get past the 1st down marker. Brady really went to him in the 2nd half.
*I thought the Gostkowski PAT miss was deflating, and then the onside kick was somewhat questionable. The fact that Atlanta couldn’t even get a FG (which might have clinched the game) after recovering the onside kick was one of the biggest factors in losing the game. Going up 31-9 would have been big. People ripped on Atlanta for not running the ball enough, but in that instance they get a holding penalty on a 2nd-and-1 running play, forcing them into a passing situation.
*When the score was 28-12 in the 4th, I felt that NE really had a shot to tie, but the biggest plays in the comeback would be the 2point conversion plays. I give Belichick credit for not losing his cool and allowing his offense to move downfield in short chunks. There was enough time for a comeback at that point.
*Matt Ryan’s fumble was the biggest play, IMO. It gave the Pats the ball in good position, and it cut down on the amount of time NE needed to make their comeback. That’s the one play call I really question..3rd and 1 pass play. The Pats sacked Ryan quite a bit in the 2nd half, and Atlanta had success all year dumping the ball off to their RBs. This seemed to work for Atlanta in the Super Bowl, too, yet Ryan still was getting rushed.
*Patriots TD was another outside pass to Amendola that was open all 2nd half. The 2pt conversion was an interesting use of motion to get White in the backfield and run up the middle.
*After Julio Jones’ big catch to put the ball near the NE 20…I figured the Falcons would go exclusively to the ground, burn up NE’s timeouts, and kick the FG to make it a two score game. The recent Falcon drives had featured sacks and penalties, so a conservative approach seemed best. But Atlanta penalized and sacked themselves out of FG range, which IMO was the biggest strategic mistake in the game.
*The Edelman tip catch was nice, but I had a feeling that the Pats were going to score a TD regardless. They had enough time. Their offense was moving the ball. Had that play been incomplete, then Brady would have simply completed another pass. I thought Atlanta’s best chance was stopping the 2pt conversion. It seemed like Atlanta was in a good defense to stop NE’s 2pt play, but Amendola crossed the goalline before getting pushed back. Freeney jumping offside was kind of dumb, as the play was going to be a quick-hitter regardless.
*Not sure what Matt Ryan was doing spiking the ball near the end of regulation. That just ensured that NE would get the ball back. I thought for sure Belichick would do an 11-man rush on the punt, and was surprised that he went with a normal return. The fumblerooski play to end regulation was interesting, but I think you had better odds of blocking the punt.
*The legacy of this game would have been weird had Atlanta won the OT coin toss, scored a TD, and won the game. When NE won the coin toss, I figured they were going to win. Atlanta’s defense was reeling. It would have been great/ballsy if Atlanta did an onside kick to start the OT, and concede a FG in an effort to get possession of the ball.
*Things pretty much went as expected in the OT, except when NE had a 1st and goal from the 2. I thought the Pats would try to punch it in, but instead they tried a fade pass to Martellus Bennett. Nearly a disaster as Vic Beasley got a hand on the ball and perhaps could have had an INT. The Pats handed the ball to James White the next play, Edelman had a big block, and the Pats won.
*I can buy into some of the hyperbole. I think Brady is the best QB of all-time, but I thought that before this game. Belichick’s reputation is great, but I think Paul Brown’s influence on all coaches makes it difficult to say the Belichick is the greatest coach of all-time. That said, Belichick is a worthy #2 coach of all-time. The Patriots ‘dynasty’ is a tricky question, as there is a big gap between title periods and the roster turnover has been great. One thing I do know is that this wasn’t the greatest Super Bowl ever…it was the most frenzied finish, but not really a ‘great’ game IMO.
*It seemed like the Patriots thought they were going to be able to run the ball on the Falcons, yet Blount was completely shut down. The Patriots had some initial success throwing, and Blount’s early fumble was big as the Patriots had the momentum.
*Atlanta’s first scoring drive had two immediate big pass plays to Julio Jones. The Falcons went up 7-0, and Jones was pretty much an afterthought until the end of the game. Only 4 targets (yet 4 catches).
*The Patriots thought they could free themselves from Atlanta’s tight coverage with shallow crossing routes over the middle. This did not work, yet the Patriots kept at it. Brady was unusually inaccurate with his short throws, and Atlanta reacted quickly to tackle the WRs after they caught short passes. New England had better success throwing wide to their WRs in the 10-15 yard range, and IMO this changed the course of the game. Even when Atlanta got sacks, Brady was unfazed and could regularly complete his intermediate passes for 1st downs.
*I thought the INT return TD was big, as New England was driving and seemed to be on their way to getting the score 14-7 at half. The Atlanta safety did not lay back, as the Patriots had stopped throwing deep, and correctly guessed another crossing route. After the Atlanta DB caught the ball, I gave Brady about a 5% chance of tripping up the INT returner. It didn’t happen (although he came closer than I thought).
*In the 2nd half, when the Patriots offense was still misfiring on their crossing routes, I thought the Falcons had the game well in hand. Just pound the ball, don’t turn it over, and New England won’t have enough time to come back.
*James White was important, as he had the ability to make the quick-reacting Falcon defenders miss him and then get past the 1st down marker. Brady really went to him in the 2nd half.
*I thought the Gostkowski PAT miss was deflating, and then the onside kick was somewhat questionable. The fact that Atlanta couldn’t even get a FG (which might have clinched the game) after recovering the onside kick was one of the biggest factors in losing the game. Going up 31-9 would have been big. People ripped on Atlanta for not running the ball enough, but in that instance they get a holding penalty on a 2nd-and-1 running play, forcing them into a passing situation.
*When the score was 28-12 in the 4th, I felt that NE really had a shot to tie, but the biggest plays in the comeback would be the 2point conversion plays. I give Belichick credit for not losing his cool and allowing his offense to move downfield in short chunks. There was enough time for a comeback at that point.
*Matt Ryan’s fumble was the biggest play, IMO. It gave the Pats the ball in good position, and it cut down on the amount of time NE needed to make their comeback. That’s the one play call I really question..3rd and 1 pass play. The Pats sacked Ryan quite a bit in the 2nd half, and Atlanta had success all year dumping the ball off to their RBs. This seemed to work for Atlanta in the Super Bowl, too, yet Ryan still was getting rushed.
*Patriots TD was another outside pass to Amendola that was open all 2nd half. The 2pt conversion was an interesting use of motion to get White in the backfield and run up the middle.
*After Julio Jones’ big catch to put the ball near the NE 20…I figured the Falcons would go exclusively to the ground, burn up NE’s timeouts, and kick the FG to make it a two score game. The recent Falcon drives had featured sacks and penalties, so a conservative approach seemed best. But Atlanta penalized and sacked themselves out of FG range, which IMO was the biggest strategic mistake in the game.
*The Edelman tip catch was nice, but I had a feeling that the Pats were going to score a TD regardless. They had enough time. Their offense was moving the ball. Had that play been incomplete, then Brady would have simply completed another pass. I thought Atlanta’s best chance was stopping the 2pt conversion. It seemed like Atlanta was in a good defense to stop NE’s 2pt play, but Amendola crossed the goalline before getting pushed back. Freeney jumping offside was kind of dumb, as the play was going to be a quick-hitter regardless.
*Not sure what Matt Ryan was doing spiking the ball near the end of regulation. That just ensured that NE would get the ball back. I thought for sure Belichick would do an 11-man rush on the punt, and was surprised that he went with a normal return. The fumblerooski play to end regulation was interesting, but I think you had better odds of blocking the punt.
*The legacy of this game would have been weird had Atlanta won the OT coin toss, scored a TD, and won the game. When NE won the coin toss, I figured they were going to win. Atlanta’s defense was reeling. It would have been great/ballsy if Atlanta did an onside kick to start the OT, and concede a FG in an effort to get possession of the ball.
*Things pretty much went as expected in the OT, except when NE had a 1st and goal from the 2. I thought the Pats would try to punch it in, but instead they tried a fade pass to Martellus Bennett. Nearly a disaster as Vic Beasley got a hand on the ball and perhaps could have had an INT. The Pats handed the ball to James White the next play, Edelman had a big block, and the Pats won.
*I can buy into some of the hyperbole. I think Brady is the best QB of all-time, but I thought that before this game. Belichick’s reputation is great, but I think Paul Brown’s influence on all coaches makes it difficult to say the Belichick is the greatest coach of all-time. That said, Belichick is a worthy #2 coach of all-time. The Patriots ‘dynasty’ is a tricky question, as there is a big gap between title periods and the roster turnover has been great. One thing I do know is that this wasn’t the greatest Super Bowl ever…it was the most frenzied finish, but not really a ‘great’ game IMO.