Super Bowl 49
Posted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:56 pm
It's time for my annual Super Bowl analysis and prediction, here goes:
Those who bet on football see this as one of the closest matched Super Bowls ever, as different odds makers have either New England or Seattle favored by the slimmest of margins. Doing a Google search on Super Bowl 49 point spread, I have seen both teams favored by a point by different sites, while others had the game as a straight up bet with no point spread. This is a Super Bowl first, a game listed as a pick ‘em, although for Super Bowl VII various odds makers had either Washington or Miami favored by a point. I’m not a betting man, but I do find betting lines for historical games interesting, because those who made odds and those who bet way back then knew a lot more about the teams of that era than we could possibly know today.
The Patriots and Seahawks last met two years ago in Seattle, with Seattle scoring on a long Russell Wilson TD pass in the final 90 seconds of regulation to defeat the Pats 24-23, so there is no edge there.
The thing that sticks out to me is that the Seahawks led the NFL in fewest points allowed for the third season in a row, and the only other team to duplicate the feat was the 1969-71 Vikings, arguably the best defense of all time. Seattle has had a 36-12 record between 2012 and 2014, as has the Patriots. Over those 48 regular season games, New England has had a 1359-982 points scored/allowed aggregate, which averages out to 28.3-20.5, or a differential of 7.8 points per game. Seattle has scored 1223 points the last three years and allowed 730, an average of 25.5-15.2, which works out to 10.3. Advantage Seattle.
Over the last three regular seasons, New England was 8-5 against teams who would make the postseason during the season in question, while Seattle was 12-4. In the playoffs, New England had a 4-2 mark while Seattle was 6-1. Total those together, New England has been 12-7 (.632) against playoff teams, while Seattle was 18-5 (.783), an edge for the Seahawks.
The main intangible going into this game is the Deflate-gate brouhaha. I’m sure the refs will have all the balls inflated to the exact same weight, with an NFL security official watching over those balls as the game is in progress. If New England should lose this game, football fans will say that the only reason they got this far is that they’ve been deflating the balls all season. However, if New England defeats the defending Super Bowl champ, they will pay fines in the off-season because of the balls, rules will be put in place to have NFL security personnel monitor and spot weigh the balls during games, and Deflate-Gate will be forgotten. Also, the window is quickly closing on the Belichick-Brady era in New England; this could be their final Super Bowl together, and a loss in this game will give them a 3-3 mark in the big game.
Another angle to examine is Super Bowl winners who return the following season to defend their title in the Super Bowl. It has happened 11 times and those teams who won the first time repeated the following season while three failed to repeat – the 1978 Cowboys, 1983 Redskins and 1997 Packers.
In conclusion, in a lot of ways this is a repeat of last year’s matchup, a great offense led by a future first ballot Hall of Famer against a defense that will in time be regarded as the best multi-year defense since the Bears of the mid-80’s. The 2014 Seahawks led the NFL in rushing, and also in rushing TD’s and yards per run. New England finished 18th, 12th and 22nd respectively. Great rushing and great defense (in particular, great pass defense) , is a combination that always wins in the NFL, in every era. Seattle will play ball control, eat up as much of the clock as they can, stick to short passes, while Wilson can throw the bomb if he has to (the Seahawks were 27th in passing yards in 2014 not because Wilson was a bad QB, but because he didn’t have to throw much because of the defense and running game), and Wilson is a great runner for a QB. New England can try to blitz, but Wilson can move around in the pocket, improvise, and run for it if he has to.
On the other hand, Brady cannot control the clock with ball control, as the Patriots rushing leader was Jonas Gray with a total of 412 (this is not a misprint) yards rushing in 2014. I doubt a team playing for a championship has had a rushing leader with so few yards since at least WW2, when they played 10 and 11 game seasons. If Brady had to go to the air, he risks throwing into the outstanding Seattle secondary.
Brady is hoping to join Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only QB’s with four SB rings, and Bill Belichick is hoping to join Chuck Noll with four rings, but I don’t think it is going to happen today. It's going to come down to ball control in the end, and it's going to be a long day for New England. I like Seattle, 27 to 20, although the game won't be as close as the final score indicates.
Those who bet on football see this as one of the closest matched Super Bowls ever, as different odds makers have either New England or Seattle favored by the slimmest of margins. Doing a Google search on Super Bowl 49 point spread, I have seen both teams favored by a point by different sites, while others had the game as a straight up bet with no point spread. This is a Super Bowl first, a game listed as a pick ‘em, although for Super Bowl VII various odds makers had either Washington or Miami favored by a point. I’m not a betting man, but I do find betting lines for historical games interesting, because those who made odds and those who bet way back then knew a lot more about the teams of that era than we could possibly know today.
The Patriots and Seahawks last met two years ago in Seattle, with Seattle scoring on a long Russell Wilson TD pass in the final 90 seconds of regulation to defeat the Pats 24-23, so there is no edge there.
The thing that sticks out to me is that the Seahawks led the NFL in fewest points allowed for the third season in a row, and the only other team to duplicate the feat was the 1969-71 Vikings, arguably the best defense of all time. Seattle has had a 36-12 record between 2012 and 2014, as has the Patriots. Over those 48 regular season games, New England has had a 1359-982 points scored/allowed aggregate, which averages out to 28.3-20.5, or a differential of 7.8 points per game. Seattle has scored 1223 points the last three years and allowed 730, an average of 25.5-15.2, which works out to 10.3. Advantage Seattle.
Over the last three regular seasons, New England was 8-5 against teams who would make the postseason during the season in question, while Seattle was 12-4. In the playoffs, New England had a 4-2 mark while Seattle was 6-1. Total those together, New England has been 12-7 (.632) against playoff teams, while Seattle was 18-5 (.783), an edge for the Seahawks.
The main intangible going into this game is the Deflate-gate brouhaha. I’m sure the refs will have all the balls inflated to the exact same weight, with an NFL security official watching over those balls as the game is in progress. If New England should lose this game, football fans will say that the only reason they got this far is that they’ve been deflating the balls all season. However, if New England defeats the defending Super Bowl champ, they will pay fines in the off-season because of the balls, rules will be put in place to have NFL security personnel monitor and spot weigh the balls during games, and Deflate-Gate will be forgotten. Also, the window is quickly closing on the Belichick-Brady era in New England; this could be their final Super Bowl together, and a loss in this game will give them a 3-3 mark in the big game.
Another angle to examine is Super Bowl winners who return the following season to defend their title in the Super Bowl. It has happened 11 times and those teams who won the first time repeated the following season while three failed to repeat – the 1978 Cowboys, 1983 Redskins and 1997 Packers.
In conclusion, in a lot of ways this is a repeat of last year’s matchup, a great offense led by a future first ballot Hall of Famer against a defense that will in time be regarded as the best multi-year defense since the Bears of the mid-80’s. The 2014 Seahawks led the NFL in rushing, and also in rushing TD’s and yards per run. New England finished 18th, 12th and 22nd respectively. Great rushing and great defense (in particular, great pass defense) , is a combination that always wins in the NFL, in every era. Seattle will play ball control, eat up as much of the clock as they can, stick to short passes, while Wilson can throw the bomb if he has to (the Seahawks were 27th in passing yards in 2014 not because Wilson was a bad QB, but because he didn’t have to throw much because of the defense and running game), and Wilson is a great runner for a QB. New England can try to blitz, but Wilson can move around in the pocket, improvise, and run for it if he has to.
On the other hand, Brady cannot control the clock with ball control, as the Patriots rushing leader was Jonas Gray with a total of 412 (this is not a misprint) yards rushing in 2014. I doubt a team playing for a championship has had a rushing leader with so few yards since at least WW2, when they played 10 and 11 game seasons. If Brady had to go to the air, he risks throwing into the outstanding Seattle secondary.
Brady is hoping to join Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only QB’s with four SB rings, and Bill Belichick is hoping to join Chuck Noll with four rings, but I don’t think it is going to happen today. It's going to come down to ball control in the end, and it's going to be a long day for New England. I like Seattle, 27 to 20, although the game won't be as close as the final score indicates.
