Makeup class of 17

[Bryan]

Such an interesting time to be following the HOF stuff. Thoughts on players/debates mentioned:

Otis Taylor - agree that he is most like TO...questionable hands, great YAC, brilliant athlete on film. All those KC HOFers, and Taylor was arguably the 2nd best player on that team behind Bobby Bell. Don't think he's a HOFer. Not enough to distinguish Taylor from other WRs like Gene Washington (Niners) and Gary Garrison.

Stanley Morgan - no way. Aside from magical 1986 season, just not seeing it.

Mac Speedie - seemed to be the alpha dog pass catcher on the Browns, yet Lavelli is the guy in the HOF. Was probably the best WR/End in football for the majority of his playing years. Not many of these retro candidates can say that about their careers. I would put Speedie in the HOF and think he's the best WR/End candidate not in...with Shofner at #2.

Maxie Baughan - interesting to compare Ram LBs to GB LBs. Lee Roy Caffey would have been a standout LB on the Rams, IMO. Lombardi stole him from the Eagles after his rookie year (when he had an 87-yard INT TD return); size/speed combo of that Packer group is almost unique in NFL history. Baughan more like a Larry Grantham. I would put Howley in before Baughan without question, and think Baughan is more HOVG.

Ken Riley - he is a no for me. Parrish is a better candidate. Spectacular returns via INT or K/P. Elite cover guy. Parrish is Barney to Riley's LeBeau. Riley's career might be most comparable to LeBeau's, without the DC legacy...I remember Riley being the Packer DB coach in the mid-80's and the pass defense improved immensely, FWIW. I'd put Parrish in before Riley, but even Parrish is 'borderline' IMO.

Ken Anderson - I do think his passing titles and stats put him above Gabriel/Brodie/Simms/Thiesmann. I still wouldn't vote for him. I don't really buy the "if he would have won SB XVI, he'd be in" argument. He didn't. He threw a terrible pick at the start of the game when the Niners gift-wrapped the early lead to the Bengals. I guess some of Anderson's great efficiency numbers can be attributed to playing in Walsh's system, but you can say the same thing about a lot of great QBs and Anderson did lead the NFL in passing yardage in 74 and 75, so its not like he was 'merely' efficient. He was the main reason for Cincy's success. Anderson's 1981 MVP year is interesting trivia...how many MVPs can say they were benched for Turk Schonert? Roman Gabriel's 1969 MVP is equally amazing. If Anderson gets dinged for being a product of Walsh, then Gabriel was a product of Marchibroda's offense. How many QB MVPs can say they averaged 6.4 YPA? Yeesh.

Klecko/Gastineau - agree that Gastineau gets "lazy analysis" criticism of being a turnstile in the run game. Not really big on either guy getting into the HOF. Klecko getting in over Dilweg would kind of be indicative of potential recency bias with this type of "make up class" thing. I know Dr. Z was really high on Cliff Harris and Klecko, so perhaps I am selling Klecko short.

The guys I am rooting for the most at this point are: Sabol, Dilweg, Slater, Howley, Speedie, Coryell. Not sure if any of them get in, though.

[JWL]

And this "My basic method for evaluating a player's performance in a given year is to look at his CMTI, and then, based on the mean and standard deviation for that given year, relate his performance to that of his peers. Since the aggregate accumulation of these measures over the past 78 years looks very much like a normal (bell-shaped) curve, we can use the bell-curve to convert these measures to percentile ranks, giving a numerical value ranging from 1 to 99 for each of these performances. The sum of a given quarterback's 4 best such performances are then used as my C4 calculation, and the sum of his 7 best performances are my C7 calculation. Obviously, then the maximum possible value for C4 is 99 * 4 = 396, and, commensurately, the maximum C7 value is 99 * 7 = 693. As I mentioned earlier, I've also calculated a C10 value for those players with an exceptionally long career. Obviously, if we did this for every year a player qualified, one could create a career C score for each player."

WTF?

I really hope CMTI does not get Anderson into the Hall. I hope it's his overall skill set, yes, plenty of stats, but not not CMTI

Somebody actually wrote that or was that a made up joke thing?

I could do that too.

"I extrapolated the median numbers of the GAT9 formula and pulverized them with my computer's vise. In turn, this led to me developing a bell curve of 119 eligible passers. 65 passed my cutting edge AY/A and VOOP amalgamation (think of this as numbers making love to one another like OBP and SLG making OPS). Of those 65, I ran the R formula to determine the C rating multiplied by 48 because 48 was the number my aunt picked when I asked her to pick a number from 11 to 123, and I derived at Ken Anderson making the top 23. A top 23 quarterback of all time is certainly a Hall of Famer even taking into account his FLEP as being lower than the average R score of the top quarter percentile of the first 36 on the list of the top 65 AY/A-VOOP achievers. So, long story short, Ken Anderson belongs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. My computer formulas said so."

GAT9- Golden Arm Talent 9; this represents the 9th reworking of the formula
AY/A- Adjusted yards per passing attempt
VOOP- Value Over Ordinary Passer
FLEP- I forgot what this means. It is saved into my computer somewhere but I know Anderson's number here is lower than most.

[ChrisBabcock]

"I extrapolated the median numbers of the GAT9 formula and pulverized them with my computer's vise. In turn, this led to me developing a bell curve of 119 eligible passers. 65 passed my cutting edge AY/A and VOOP amalgamation (think of this as numbers making love to one another like OBP and SLG making OPS). Of those 65, I ran the R formula to determine the C rating multiplied by 48 because 48 was the number my aunt picked when I asked her to pick a number from 11 to 123, and I derived at Ken Anderson making the top 23. A top 23 quarterback of all time is certainly a Hall of Famer even taking into account his FLEP as being lower than the average R score of the top quarter percentile of the first 36 on the list of the top 65 AY/A-VOOP achievers. So, long story short, Ken Anderson belongs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. My computer formulas said so."

GAT9- Golden Arm Talent 9; this represents the 9th reworking of the formula
AY/A- Adjusted yards per passing attempt
VOOP- Value Over Ordinary Passer
FLEP- I forgot what this means. It is saved into my computer somewhere but I know Anderson's number here is lower than most.

This made my morning. Thanks.

[TanksAndSpartans]

Mac Speedie - seemed to be the alpha dog pass catcher on the Browns, yet Lavelli is the guy in the HOF. Was probably the best WR/End in football for the majority of his playing years. Not many of these retro candidates can say that about their careers. I would put Speedie in the HOF and think he's the best WR/End candidate not in...with Shofner at #2.

Not trying to pick on you or Speedie, but disagree on "probably the best". I would take Hirsch, Fears, and Pihos first - I think the HoF got it right. From what I've personally seen, I'd take Elbie Nickel as a contemporary of Speedie, seemed to make a lot of plays. I can see both in HoVG more than HoF though.

Here's a good discussion of the '45 - '54 period: http://www.footballperspective.com/gues ... e-1945-54/

[rewing84]

Using the Pro Football References AV Stat heres my 10 player Class Based on their av av in parentheses





WR Harold Carmichael (101) 1970's NFL All Decade Team


E- Boyd Dowler (93) 1960's NFL All Decade Team

RB Roger Craig (115) 1980s NFL All Decade Team


G- Walt Sweeney (100) 1960's AFL All Tim Team

T- Jim Tyrer (126) 1960's AFL All Time Team


DE- L.C. Greenwood (101) 1970's NFL All Decade Team


DT- Alex Karras (110) 1960's NFL All Decade Team


CB Bobby Boyd (111) 1960s NFL All Decade Team


DB Ed Meador (103) 1960s NFL All Decade Team


S- Cliff Harris (93) 1970's NFL All Decade Team


Thoughts and Critiques

[Rupert Patrick]

Using the Pro Football References AV Stat heres my 10 player Class Based on their av av in parentheses

(players snipped for brevity)

Thoughts and Critiques

I have a problem with the PFR AV system. Here is a list of the top 15 single season AV scores of all time. Which of these things is not like the others?

Rank, player, year, AV
1. LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 - 26
2. Marshall Faulk 1999 and O.J. Simpson 1975 - tied at 25
4. Tom Brady 2007 and Rolland Lawrence 1977 - tied at 24
6. Jim Brown 1964, Priest Holmes 2002, Ray Lewis 2000, Wilber Marshall 1986, Lydell Mitchell 1976, Alan Page 1969, Aaron Rodgers 2011, Pat Swilling 1991, Steve Young 1993 and Steve Young 1994 - tied at 23.

Rolland Lawrence had a very good year, first team All Pro. But I know that AV attempts to compare apples and oranges, but there is no way to compare his performance to Brady's 2007 season and judge them to be of similar value, or even remotely similar value. For this reason I cannot find the PFR AV results to have any credibility, when it ranks Lawrence's 1977 season as the greatest defensive season of any player ever. He finished right above Ray Lewis's 2000 season, which was one of the great defensive seasons, when Lewis led the Ravens to a Super Bowl win.

In addition, the AV system seems to slightly favor RB's over QB's, when I think QB's have more value than RB's. I would bet any amount of money if you study teams who lose a star running back and a star QB (but not if they have both on the same team, I'm talking about situations with a star RB and average QB and an average RB and star QB), if they lose one of the two to injury, the team who loses the star QB is less successful than the team who loses the star RB when it comes to replacing said star player.

[Bryan]

Not trying to pick on you or Speedie, but disagree on "probably the best". I would take Hirsch, Fears, and Pihos first - I think the HoF got it right. From what I've personally seen, I'd take Elbie Nickel as a contemporary of Speedie, seemed to make a lot of plays. I can see both in HoVG more than HoF though.

Here's a good discussion of the '45 - '54 period: http://www.footballperspective.com/gues ... e-1945-54/

Speedie led the AAFC/NFL in receptions 4 of his 7 seasons. That's why I said he was probably the best for the majority of his playing years.

Hirsch's receiving career didn't really take off until 1950, and by then Speedie had already won 3 receiving titles. Pihos was a different type of player, but his best years were after Speedie went to the CFL. Fears' productive years probably had the best overlap with Speedie's...I didn't realize this until I looked it up, but Fears only made 1 pro bowl and had only 1 All Pro appearance (both for his big 1950 season). The only season of Nickel's from 1946-52 that compares to Speedie would 1952, and that was a year in which Speedie led the NFL in receptions.

I'm not seeing anything from 46-52 that would put Hirsch/Fears/Pihos/Nickel over Speedie. I get that Speedie had a short career even when we add in his AAFC years, and if you looked at only his NFL years there is no way he gets into the HOF...but I think this is exactly the purpose of the "makeup class", to put in the best players who were overlooked.

[TanksAndSpartans]

Good rebuttal. You make some nice points. I was off in my estimates of the timeline comparing him to some players he didn't overlap with, but I would still say the players I mentioned played in roughly the same era as Speedie.

As for some of the accolades you mention, I just don’t value the AAFC the same as NFL. My impression is the Browns were mostly beating up on inferior competition - not saying there weren’t any other good teams, just questioning whether they were challenged weekly.

I haven’t studied video and certainly my sample isn’t random, but I’ve seen the TelRa highlights and Graham did a nice job distributing the ball to both backs and receivers. Rex Bumgardner, Ken Carpenter, and Dub Jones seemed to make as many plays as Speedie from what I saw.

I think the crux of Speedie's argument would have to focus on him being one of the best of the 40s (he is on the all-decade team):

Jim Benton
Jack Ferrante
Ken Kavanaugh
Dante Lavelli
Pete Pihos
Mac Speedie
Ed Sprinkle

And it does seem the era/position combination could be considered under-represented as several of the players aren't in Canton. A quick look at the list makes me wonder if Kavanaugh ever got consideration or maybe Sprinkle for his defense. Would a GM of the era be quick to say they'd want Speedie for their team given all the options?

I think its telling when you look at the "best of" in the article I linked which is a period that does cover Speedie’s career, his name doesn’t show up:

1945-54
Fastest Receiver: Mal Kutner

Best Deep Threat: Hugh Taylor

Best Hands: Dante Lavelli

Best Possession Receiver: Tom Fears

Toughest Receiver: Pete Pihos

Underrated in 2016: Ken Kavanaugh

Most Accomplished Postseason WR: Tom Fears

Best Single Season: Elroy Hirsch, 1951

Best Overall WR: Pete Pihos

[Bryan]

I think its telling when you look at the "best of" in the article I linked which is a period that does cover Speedie’s career, his name doesn’t show up:

1945-54
Fastest Receiver: Mal Kutner

Best Deep Threat: Hugh Taylor

Best Hands: Dante Lavelli

Best Possession Receiver: Tom Fears

Toughest Receiver: Pete Pihos

Underrated in 2016: Ken Kavanaugh

Most Accomplished Postseason WR: Tom Fears

Best Single Season: Elroy Hirsch, 1951

Best Overall WR: Pete Pihos

I don't disagree with any of that, and the author's blurb on Speedie was basically what I already said, but stuff like "Best Hands" is subjective. Calling Pihos the best WR doesn't really negate that Speedie was probably the best WR from 46-52, because again, Pihos' best years came after Speedie retired from the NFL (and Pihos also was a fine DE). I don't think Speedie's HOF resume is weaker because he wasn't as fast as Mal Kutner or wasn't a better possession WR than Tom Fears. I think the sum of Speedie's parts is fantastic....big, fast, durable, productive.

[TanksAndSpartans]

Fair Enough. I’m not on a campaign against Speedie. There are still enough questions for me, that the HOVG seems good enough though. Like we don’t know what someone like Kavanaugh would have done in the AAFC with Graham throwing to him. And the post war era is pretty well represented, I think Speedie was a finalist a few times, so he may have gotten a pretty fair look relative to some of the pre-war players anyway. I'll watch the '46 Browns highlights tonight, see if I change my mind