Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

Divisional Playoffs

I think three of the four games can go either way; the only team that I really would consider an upset if they do not win this weekend is Arizona.

My playoff ratings methodolgy sees the eight existing teams ranked this way (from best to worst) in a round robin tournament. The system matches up the teams statistically and looks at past historical trends and "plays" the game, delivering a final score. This is the record of the teams having played one another with home field advantage applied if they are playing a team in their own conference:

Carolina 7-0
Arizona 6-1
Seattle 5-2
New England 3-5
Denver 3-5
Kansas City 3-5
Pittsburgh 1-7
Green Bay 0-8

The New England/Denver/Kansas City knot is a rock-paper-scissors conundrum where it sees Denver beating New England, New England beating KC, and KC beating Denver.

I'll roll the other game predictions out during the day but wanted to get this one out before the game started.

In the KC New England game, I think the game can go either way. New England had a huge edge with Brady and the home field and the New England mystique, but the Chiefs are bringing a lot of momentum into the game. The problem I have with the Chiefs winning is during their 11-game winning streak, they haven't beat a really good team in more than two months. Their last win against an outstanding team was the 29-13 win over Denver on 15 November when Manning threw four picks and Osweiller took the starting job. KC did beat the Steelers in Week 7 23-13 to start the streak, but if you look at the Chiefs losses in 2015, I see Green Bay, Denver, Cincinnati and Minnesota, when they were all playing strong early in the season. If the Patriots bring their A game today, the Chiefs will keep it close but will come up short. However, Andy Reid has been to many postseason games and he has a opportunistic defense that is third in the league in takeovers. I'm rooting for the Chiefs, but I think the streak ends today. New England 24 - Kansas City 20.

I think the Cards are going to be too much for Green Bay. They took the Packers apart in Week 16 38-8, but this time I expect a closer game, maybe 31-16.

Seattle vs. Carolina should be the best game of the day, I think. We'll see if the Panthers are for real. Seattle will have Marshawn Lynch but he will be probably not be 100 percent, but even at 50 percent he's still dangerous. One thing that worries me about Carolina is that they have not faced a very strong team since they beat the Packers on November 8th. In the meantime, Seattle has played Minnesota twice, Arizona twice and Pittsburgh, winning four of the five and have won 9 of their last 11 games. I expect a defensive struggle, with the Panthers winning 16-14.

The Steelers go into Denver without their star receiver and with a question mark at quarterback. They are facing a Broncos team with a QB who has been well rested and all healed up and is ready for perhaps his final playoff run. If Manning should falter, they have Osweiller ready to go, but if Big Ben goes down, the Steelers have no decent back-up. I see the Steelers as having too many question marks, having to go into Denver, and they no longer have the Blitzburgh defense going for them anymore. Roethlisberger has a history of stepping up in big games, but I don't think he has enough weapons with Brown out of action. I see Denver winning this game, 28-17

In one of the all time great games, despite some Packer friendly officiating, they manage to lose : )

Larry Fitzgerald makes me question why the Pro Football Hall of Fame has a 5-year rule.

Crybabies - http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... ules-in-ot

LJP wrote:In one of the all time great games, despite some Packer friendly officiating, they manage to lose : )

Larry Fitzgerald makes me question why the Pro Football Hall of Fame has a 5-year rule.

Crybabies - http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... ules-in-ot

Fitzgerald's performance last night was among the best individual playoff performances of all time, I think. The question is how long would the list be? Top 5? No. Top 25? Possibly. Top 50? Probably. Top 100? For sure.

I doubt anybody was expecting the Panthers to lead 21-0 early in the second quarter. They've done it with a quick drive, a turnover which gave them great field position, and a longer sustained drive, and now as I am typing this another pick in FG range. I think you can stick a fork in the Seahawks.

After it became 31-0 - at what point will they start resting Newton and other starters to avoid risk of injury? I would start now.

Ordinarily, I would agree with pulling starters. But the NFL has become so offense-driven, that it seems that some sort of comeback is not just possible, but inevitable.

Broncos get another shot at NE. Pats offense is tough, but they don't have the athletes that the Steelers have at the skill positions.

If Denver plays offense like they did against GB (they could, because NE's secondary is vulnerable, and they can be ran on), they take this. If they play offense like they did today and against the Raiders, they probably are in trouble.

Hallelujah! Oh, hallelujah! The Al Bundy luck has been lifted.

I think the Play-Offs "worked" this year and the four best teams are in the Championship games.
I'd have no problem with any of these contenders winning the Super Bowl. They are all worthy.

May the best survive.

JuggernautJ wrote:I think the Play-Offs "worked" this year and the four best teams are in the Championship games.
I'd have no problem with any of these contenders winning the Super Bowl. They are all worthy.

Agreed.

Reaser wrote:

JuggernautJ wrote:I think the Play-Offs "worked" this year and the four best teams are in the Championship games.
I'd have no problem with any of these contenders winning the Super Bowl. They are all worthy.

Agreed.

As the Jets fan silently stews that his 10-6 team didn't make it.

That said we had destiny in our own hands and didn't take advantage. I think we could've gone toe to toe with any AFC playoff team.