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Re: Belichick, Reid... then who for Canton?
Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2026 3:21 am
by JohnTurney
Mike Sando
@SandoNFL
·
7h
I'm a HOF voter who saw Belichick as slam-dunk. I don't know anything about voting results, but if this is true, and we'll find out officially next week, the question is, how could this happen?
Before I list possibilities, understand this:
Belichick, Kraft, Craig, Anderson & Greenwood are competing for 1-3 spots, separate from the 15 modern-era finalists
50 voters each pick 3 of the 5
Between 1-3 make it (40+ votes needed for anyone besides top vote getter to make it)
So it's a ZERO-SUM game, huge change made in '25: 250 total votes to go around for five candidates with a high bar for clearance
Now we count the potential ways Belichick might get fewer than 40 votes even when 40+ on committee think he's a HOFer...
•Let's say 4-5 voters who were strong advocates for specific senior players figured Belichick was going to make it regardless, so they funneled votes to competing candidates in hopes of boosting them over the 40-vote threshold;
•Let's say a few voters prioritized senior players on the thinking that Belichick will be back in the room next year, while the players on the ballot this year might disappear into the senior pool forever
•Let's say a few voters found Spygate/cheating disqualifying
•Let's say a few voters protested new rules making coaches eligible one year after retiring instead of five
Whatever the case, I would see this as a repudiation of the new voting rules implemented for 2025, not of Belichick or any candidate not making it.
There will be changes to the process, I predict
https://x.com/SandoNFL/status/2016296455305392315?s=20
Re: Belichick, Reid... then who for Canton?
Posted: Wed Jan 28, 2026 8:59 am
by RichardBak
The world outside sports is all fucked up, but this runs a close second: Shedear (sp?) Sanders makes the Pro Bowl and BB doesn't make the HOF.
Re: Belichick, Reid... then who for Canton?
Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2026 10:38 am
by 74_75_78_79_
So I guess this means that Brady isn't getting in First Ballot either.
I mean if the SB-wins, and total win in-general, weren't disqualified in the first place - and he's going to get inducted next year - then what's the point?
Re: Belichick, Reid... then who for Canton?
Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2026 11:16 am
by Brian wolf
2028 ... but youre right ... How can a coach like Reid get inducted first ballot? Do they really follow Belichick like that? Other than Brady, I dont feel it will affect other first ballot players but we will see? I like the prestige that goes with first ballot selection, but many feel its overrated and unnecessary. Some believe that all players should wait further, while queues are cleared. I get that, but a player that was the best of the best, like Brady or Montana should never have to wait.
Re: Belichick, Reid... then who for Canton?
Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2026 3:15 pm
by rewing84
Brian let me ask this question do you think shortening the number of years a coach has to be retired from 5 to one was a very bad idea
Re: Belichick, Reid... then who for Canton?
Posted: Thu Jan 29, 2026 5:11 pm
by Brian wolf
Not at all Robert ... I think they did it to actually get Belichick enshrined so more openings could happen. There are alot of successful coaches that Jack Silverstein brought up and there will be a future backlog. You still got Reid, Tomlin, Payton, Harbaugh, McVay and possibly McCarthy, if the Steelers could win it all again.
The wait is fine. What is not fine is competing with seniors and contributors ... takes too much subjectivity.
Re: Belichick, Reid... then who for Canton?
Posted: Sat Jan 31, 2026 1:17 pm
by Brian wolf
Like a scene right out of the comedy movie Election --if you havent seen it you should-- Belichick purportedly missed election by ONE vote ... lets please hope one senior gets elected to minimize this mess!
Re: Belichick, Reid... then who for Canton?
Posted: Sat Jan 31, 2026 7:08 pm
by JohnTurney
Brian wolf wrote: ↑Sat Jan 31, 2026 1:17 pm
Like a scene right out of the comedy movie Election --if you havent seen it you should-- Belichick purportedly missed election by ONE vote ... lets please hope one senior gets elected to minimize this mess!
Trying to track the 39 down. Author mentins 11 nos and later 39 yes per "published reports". But prior to him posting that last night all I can find is "at least 11" in published reports.
That author seems to be positing that if BB got 39, then someone had to have had 40. But if 39 is off ...then we don't have to presuppose anyone got 40.
There can't be any way the Hall is leaking the 39. If he polled all 50, possibly he got honest answers, not a sure thing.
Could be one of those highest-vote things.
And IF BB got 39 and someone got 40, also likely means one-man class. If 79 is taken by two, hard to think one of the remaining three candidates got 56% of the remaining votes. Would mean very top-heavy voting results ... and 2 guys splitting 30 votes.
what if a 37, 35, 30, 20ish, 20ish?--also a one-man class
Re: Belichick, Reid... then who for Canton?
Posted: Thu Feb 05, 2026 4:41 pm
by readjack
I saw someone compiling a spreadsheet to track voters on the record as either voting for Belichick or not voting for him, but I didn't see that sheet getting to anything definitive. When someone is not elected, all we know is that they failed to reach 40. We now have reports out that Craig is in and Belichick and Kraft are out, with no word on Anderson and Greenwood, but just knowing that, the tally could be:
Craig - 39, wins on tiebreakers
Belichick - 39
Kraft - 39
Anderson/Greenwood - splitting final 33 votes
Re: Belichick, Reid... then who for Canton?
Posted: Thu Feb 05, 2026 6:01 pm
by rewing84
Agreed that sheet you mention proved nothing definitive if im correct