Mike Evans will probably never be first-team All-Pro

[Bryan]

Does the adjusted yards chart make Charlie Joiner appear to be a first ballot HOFer?

[JohnTurney]

Does the adjusted yards chart make Charlie Joiner appear to be a first ballot HOFer?

He is one whose career both benefits and gets hirt, +10% for 1971-77 but -15% for the rest...

People can tweak with that, it's based on passes attempted only .. . and then smoothed
people could get more detailed.. but his low total years get quote a boost

[SeahawkFever]

Does the adjusted yards chart make Charlie Joiner appear to be a first ballot HOFer?

He is one whose career both benefits and gets hirt, +10% for 1971-77 but -15% for the rest...

People can tweak with that, it's based on passes attempted only .. . and then smoothed
people could get more detailed.. but his low total years get quote a boost

If there’s one thing that’s illustrated here it’s that the stats that players put up up to when they retired and for what era they were in should be understood when evaluating them.

No knock on any contemporary players, but let’s face it, teams pass much more as a percentage of their plays than they did when the older players on that chart did.

[Jay Z]

Does the adjusted yards chart make Charlie Joiner appear to be a first ballot HOFer?

He is one whose career both benefits and gets hirt, +10% for 1971-77 but -15% for the rest...

People can tweak with that, it's based on passes attempted only .. . and then smoothed
people could get more detailed.. but his low total years get quote a boost

If there’s one thing that’s illustrated here it’s that the stats that players put up up to when they retired and for what era they were in should be understood when evaluating them.

No knock on any contemporary players, but let’s face it, teams pass much more as a percentage of their plays than they did when the older players on that chart did.

Typically my first comparison is other players in the era. For Evans his TD stats are very good, up with the best. Receptions and yards, other receivers in this era are better (and still active as well), he would need to outperform them to improve. Otherwise you have to weight the TDs versus the receptions and yards, pro bowl and All Pro selections, how much you care that he was on a SB winning team.

If a player outperforms his peers, is exceptional in his era, then you can get to all time comparisons. Evans isn't at that level at this point, there's a group of players that will be vying for consideration, unless you love TDs above all else.

[SeahawkFever]

He is one whose career both benefits and gets hirt, +10% for 1971-77 but -15% for the rest...

People can tweak with that, it's based on passes attempted only .. . and then smoothed
people could get more detailed.. but his low total years get quote a boost

If there’s one thing that’s illustrated here it’s that the stats that players put up up to when they retired and for what era they were in should be understood when evaluating them.

No knock on any contemporary players, but let’s face it, teams pass much more as a percentage of their plays than they did when the older players on that chart did.

Typically my first comparison is other players in the era. For Evans his TD stats are very good, up with the best. Receptions and yards, other receivers in this era are better (and still active as well), he would need to outperform them to improve. Otherwise you have to weight the TDs versus the receptions and yards, pro bowl and All Pro selections, how much you care that he was on a SB winning team.

If a player outperforms his peers, is exceptional in his era, then you can get to all time comparisons. Evans isn't at that level at this point, there's a group of players that will be vying for consideration, unless you love TDs above all else.

That’s all pretty fair to say. Comparing players to their peers is a great starting point because they would have played in similar eras of the rules.

Me personally, for receivers and secondary defensive players, I tend to view postseason success (and thus having been on a Super Bowl team) as a bonus, but not as much of a prerequisite as other positions.

Receivers and defensive backs take up part of the field, and if a receiver is good enough to stand out in the first place, then a defense could theoretically just cover that player more and could disrupt the offense if the other players on the field can’t take advantage of the attention that player commands.

Conversely if a safety or cornerback is doing a really good job, then that can be an albatross if the other team decides to just run offensive plays to the other side of the field.

[Brian wolf]

Getting back to this thread after reading John's, state your case article on Reggie Wayne from PFJ. I apologize for repeating myself over the years on certain topics, however I agree with what Ken Crippen said, if receivers are mostly lumped together and no one really stands out--as it seems for RBs as well--are any really HOFs? Probably not, but I am a huge supporter of runners and receivers scoring TDs, --postseason success as well--and players like Mike Evans and Davante Adams deserve just as much a shot at the HOF as yardage compilers.

Antonio Brown still has the most receiving yards per game, amongst retired receivers who are/will be eligible, but his antics going to different teams in free agency could make his case harder to justify.

Tyreek Hill has had two straight monster seasons with Miami and a possible third one this year--along with over 10 TDs--could possibly cement a chance at first ballot status but Dolphins fans can only hope he doesn't fizzle out as well, and can carry momentum into the postseason.

Like others have stated, receivers can be adjusted per era, but rules changes have to be part of that adjustment as well. Especially after 2013, for newer receivers who will be added to preliminary queues in the future. For these receivers specifically, TDs scored, postseason success and yards per game have to have more value than compiled yardage, IMO.

John's charts adjusted for 12, 14, 16 games etc, but can rules changes factor in as well? Say, 1961-1977, 1978-2000, 2001-2012, 2013-present? ... maybe 1978-2012?

Larry Fitzgerald and Julio Jones ... deserving HOF players, who compiled --are they worthy of first ballot status?*

*Jones is still considered active but may retire before or during 2024 season?

[Bryan]

Larry Fitzgerald and Julio Jones ... deserving HOF players, who compiled --are they worthy of first ballot status?*

*Jones is still considered active but may retire before or during 2024 season?

When he played, I thought Fitzgerald was one of the top 2 WRs in the NFL along with Calvin Johnson. You couldn't really stop either guy, and its not like either guy was surrounded by great offensive talent. I think Julio Jones had a shorter period of time where he was considered one of the top WRs in the NFL....to me, Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were more consistently great than Julio Jones. So I would say Fitzgerald is worthy of 1st ballot, and Julio Jones is not.

[Brian wolf]

The knock on Jones was low TD numbers but he had a very good postseason career and should have had a ring as well but we will see. Fitzgerald had a high quality teammate in Boldin which could hurt his first ballot chance--if they cancelled each other out--but his great hands and longevity will help him.

[JameisBrownston]

Evans is going to get the Frank Gore treatment. He still has at least 3 years left at his current level barring injury (and he's mad durable), and will probably finish top 5 in career receiving TDs. Whatever way Gore goes, Evans ought to go as well. It will also help that he's likely to spend his entire career with one team.

[Brian wolf]

Evans' career reminds me of Tim Brown, though with a much better start. Both stayed durable and if Brown got elected, Evans should too, though Brown had special teams numbers also. Evans, Adams and Derrick Henry are closing in on 100 regular season TDs ...