Professional Football Researchers Association Forum
PFRA is a nonprofit organization dedicated to the history of professional football. Formed in 1979, PFRA members include many of the game's foremost historians and writers.
Jay Z wrote:Guess I'm happy the Colts won, because it increases the chances the Patriots don't make the Super Bowl. The Chargers or Ravens will give them more trouble than the Texans would have.
The only team I feel can stop NE is Kansas City. Chargers I don't have much faith in going up there.
I guess I am not that impressed by the Patriots right now. They will not have their most explosive offensive player, Josh Gordon.
It is a little weird to have a playoff team have 5 losses against non-playoff teams. The Patriots did play 4 playoff teams and beat them all; Texans, Colts, Chiefs, Bears. But they haven't played a playoff team since Week 7. A 6-3 finish all against non-playoff teams.
I didn't do so well in my Wild Card picks last week. I was wrong on all four of them, and it is the first time my system has missed all four WC games since the NFL went to the two games per conference format in 1990. Let's look at this weeks games:
Colts at Chiefs - The greater Kansas City area is getting snow today, about six inches. It is expected to stop snowing by game time, but it could continue to snow during the game. I am expecting a lower scoring game due to the weather conditions, but not a defensive struggle, but rather the field will be white and slippery and the offenses will struggle. In these kinds of conditions, I would take the team who can run better, or the team who can force turnovers better.
It was thought that when Kareem Hunt left the team after Week 11 that the Chiefs rushing game would suffer, but it hasn't been as bad as expected. Thru the first 11 weeks of the season (with Hunt), the Chiefs averaged 24 rushing attempts and 116 yards per game (4.8 YPC), and in the last five weeks without Hunt, the Chiefs have averaged, you guessed it, 24 rushing attempts and 116 yards per game, and three of their final five games were against other playoff teams - Ravens, Chargers, and Seahawks . RB Spencer Ware is iffy, but I think the Chiefs running game will be fine. The Colts, by comparison, averaged 25.5 rushes for 107 yards per game during the season, 4.2 YPC, but Marlon Mack has rushed for over 100 yards in three of the Chiefs last four games, against Dallas, Tennessee and Houston. I would give a slight edge to the Colts on the ground, due to the fact the Chiefs don't have a RB as good as Mack but are doing the rushing job by committee.
When it comes to turnovers, the Chiefs have an edge, they were seventh in fewest offensive turnovers, but the Colts were 22nd. The Chiefs have an edge here. Another number that sticks out to me is sacks. While the Colts QB's (Luck) was sacked the least in the league, 18 sacks in 2018 (Chiefs were sacked 26 times), the Chiefs have a big edge in defensive sacks over the Colts, 52 (tied for Pittsburgh for most in the NFL) to 38. I think the Chiefs will get to Luck a couple times today.
With the bad conditions, I expect missed kicks. Both teams are about even in their kicking games offensively and defensively, so no edge either way.
Passing game, I have to give the Chiefs an edge, and on defense, I have to give the Colts an edge. I think the Chiefs have a huge edge in that Andy Reid has coached 22 postseason games to Frank Reich's one.
I think the weather conditions will dampen the offense to an extent, and the Chiefs will take advantage of the turnovers, and there will be turnovers. Luck is a very good QB, but he is not Patrick Mahomes. Andy Reid has been in the playoffs pretty much the entire 21st century it seems. Also, the Colts as a dome team will have trouble adapting to the conditions. And the Chiefs have one of the loudest stadiums in the league, which also favors the Chiefs.
All things considered, I have to take the Chiefs, 20-9; the Chiefs have a 63 percent chance to win according to my system.
Cowboys at Rams - It could be wet in LA this evening, as there is expected to be a 60 percent chance of rain and it could rain during the game.
The Cowboys are 22nd in offense, sixth in defense with respect to points; the Rams are 2nd offense and 20th defense in points. One thing to look at is interceptions - the Rams defense is third in the league in interceptions, Dallas is 26th. I think Gurley and Elliott will pretty much cancel one another out, and the difference between the two teams will be passing. Prescott has been sacked 56 times, while Goff has been sacked 33 times. Both defenses are about even in sacks, with the Rams at 41 and Cowboys with 39. Amari Cooper is good but I think not as good as Robert Woods or Brandin Cooks. The two kicking games are about even, as Greg Zuerlein is healthy I would give a slight edge to the Rams.
I just don't see the Cowboys going into LA and winning today. My system says the Rams have a 78 percent chance of winning today. Rams 30 - Dallas 17.
"Every time you lose, you die a little bit. You die inside. Not all your organs, maybe just your liver." - George Allen
Chargers at Patriots - The weather will be just below freezing today, but clear; I think the fact there will be no snow or extreme bitter cold will not help the Patriots.
The Pats have a slight edge in defensive turnovers - 28 to 20 for San Diego.
In passing offense, I give a slight edge to the Chargers, although the one area in passing where the Pats have a big edge is in sacks, where LA was sacked 34 times to New England's 21. However, on defense, the Chargers have a 38-30 edge in sacks, which cancels out about half of the Pats advantage in offensive sacks.
In rushing offense, the Patriots have an advantage in attempts and yards (average per game 30-127, LA is at 25-117), but the Chargers have a big edge in YPC, 4.69 to 4.26. Rushing defense favors the Bolts, as the Pats average 23-113 a game on defense while LA is at 25-106, and again the Chargers have a big edge on YPC, 4.29 to 4.91.
Offensive Yards per point favors LA, 13.88 to 14.44 for NE, and offensive rating (which is a stat I use, calculated at Points ^3/Yards^1.5/Games ^1.5) has the Chargers at 2.67 and New England at 2.59. On defense, yards per point favors the Pats, 17.68 to 16.23 and defensive rating also favors NE, 1.23 to 1.43. Yards Rushing Above Average per game favors the Chargers on offense (7.16 to -4.78 for the Pats) and on defense (-3.3 for LA compared to 11.73 for NE.)
Kicking gives the Chargers a slight edge on offense and defense, about 0.4 points on offense and 0.5 points on defense. Michael Badgley took over the Chargers kicking job in week 6 and has done well since. Despite scoring 130 points, Stephen Gostkowski had a statistically average season, meaning an average kicker in the NFL, given the same number of XP and FG attempts from the same distances he attempted the FG's from, would have scored about 130 points.
Looking at the intangibles, New England has a HUGE edge in playoff experience, and in net turnovers per game (.625 vs .0625 for the Chargers). The Chargers have a big edge in Net Yards per Play (.86 vs. .07 for the Pats). Rivers is 0-7 against Brady lifetime. A story came out this morning that Brady suffered a MCL sprain against the Titans in November, but he played thru the injury and rested it for two weeks. Melvin Gordon, the Chargers RB, is also working thru a knee injury but will play. The Pats will miss Josh Gordon.
Summary - My system gives a very slight edge to the Pats, 53 percent chance of winning, and predicts a 24-23 New England victory. However, I do not always agree with the system. I came into this weekend thinking if any team was going to be upset, it would be New England, provided the weather in Foxborough wasn't horrible. The Chargers have an edge in rushing, and in passing I think the two teams are about even. I think the Chargers will test Brady's knee, pressuring him and forcing him to move around in the pocket. The loss of Gordon, who averaged 18.0 yards per reception, will hurt the Pats deep game. I expect a high scoring game, both QB's will throw for over 350 yards, and I think the Chargers will pull off a 34-31 upset.
Eagles at Saints - I think the Saints were the strongest team in the NFL this season, and they laid a 48-7 whipping on the Eagles on November 18th. However, Nick Foles wasn't leading the Eagles that day, Carson Wentz was. In just about every statistical category, the Saints have an edge, so I'll look at the areas where the Eagles have the advantage.
The Eagles have a slight edge in Pass Defense, and an edge in defensive yards per points (16.84 vs 15.82 for the Saints) and defensive rating (1.47 vs 1.65 for NO). The Eagles have an advantage in their being defending Super Bowl champs, and also the intangible of having Nick Foles at QB.
I don't think it will be another 48-7 bloodbath, but the Eagles will not win today. I think the only teams who have a chance of beating the Saints in the playoffs are the Rams and Chiefs. My system predicts a 31-16 Saints victory, with NO having an 83 percent chance of winning the game.
"Every time you lose, you die a little bit. You die inside. Not all your organs, maybe just your liver." - George Allen
Was actually able to watch all of the games...I guess people were upset with blowouts, but I thought each game was interesting in their own right. I've always thought the best offense is a balanced offense, and this slate of game provided evidence of this (for one week, at least!).
KC-IND: I thought the Colts looked most impressive in the WC round, but they kind of stunk in all phases. I liked how Mahomes didn't force anything early...he didn't try to get Kelce his touches or Hill on a big play. I liked Reid's gameplan of using his running game and taking some pressure of Mahomes. I was afraid that Mahomes would feel obligated to get a TD on every dropback, and that wasn't the case. The Colts lost their heads right away. KC opened the game with a TD drive, and the Colts offense was pass-pass-pass-punt. Not very efficient. Luck wasn't very sharp, but the Colts made themselves one-dimensional for some reason. Yeah, KC's offense could drive the ball, but the game wasn't a blowout, especially after the punt block TD. I thought KC played intelligently, the Colts played dumb, and I'm looking forward to an outdoor cold weather AFC championship.
Rams-Cowboys: I thought McVay's gameplan was great and similar to Reid's...use the running game to take pressure off your young QB who might feel like he has to do everything. McVay even allowed for Gurley to be a change-of-pace RB, relying more on CJ Anderson's power runs. Dallas second-level defense seemed confused all game long...Rams would run counters and pull their OL/TEs, and the Dallas LBs/DBs would stand in place until they were walled off from the play. They never tried to fire into the gaps or attack at the snap. I was surprised that the Cowboys never changed up their defense. I wasn't impressed with Dak Prescott, but he somehow kept Dallas in the game (1 of 10 on 3rd downs!). A late PI in the endzone gifted the Cowboys a TD with two minutes left, and despite giving up about 250 rushing yards at that point in the game, Jason Garrett elected to kick deep, hoping his defense could force a 3-and-out. Gimme a break!
Pats-Chargers: I was not impressed with the Chargers in the WC, especially Phillip Rivers. He looked bad, but Lamar Jackson played worse. I hadn't watched much of the Pats this year, so I wasn't really understanding all the talk about how they would sorely miss Josh Gordon. I figured the Pats would win easily, and they did. Edelman is such a tough player, both over the middle and with his blocking. Similar to Reid/McVay, Belichick's gameplan had a heavy dose of running and pounding the ball. Every time Develin came into the game at FB, either a 1st down or a TD was the result. That said, Brady was sharp all game with some incredibly precise throws, and I'm not sure what the Chargers could have done differently. Rivers wasn't any good and the Chargers completely abandoned the run game, but at least they were down 35-7 so they have more of an excuse than Indy.
Eagles-Saints: Funny game to me, because the thought was that the Saints would start slow because they had been resting players while the Eagles had been in a "win-or-else" mode for the last 6 weeks. What happens? Eagles start hot, Saints start slow, and people are surprised at a 14-0 lead. I was not one of those people. I thought the key to the game was Brees remaining calm after early struggles, and the Saints defense asserting itself and keeping Philly off the scoreboard completely (not even a FG!) for their next 8 drives. It seemed like Philly had success running Smallwood on their first two TD drives, then they went away from a balanced offense and had Foles dropping back every down, and being one-dimensional played into NO's hands. I've seen the Saints run that fake punt with Taysom Hill a few times before, and I honestly thought they would be doing it again after Pederson declined the penalty to setup a 4th and short. That whole sequence was weird, because it seemed like the regular Eagle DL was in for the punt, so perhaps Pederson knew it was going to be a fake...so I don't know why he declined the penalty in the first place...yet the Saints went ahead with the fake and ran Hill right at Fletcher Cox and easily picked up the 1st down...so nothing about that play makes sense. Maybe it's just me. Anyway, for all the praise thrown at Sean Payton/Drew Brees and Co., the Eagles still had a good shot at scoring the winning TD at the end of the game if Alshon Jeffery holds onto a pass. The narrative could have been completely different.
The four best teams are in the Conference Championship games this year, any of them can go all the way. At this point, my system has the Saints with a 43 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, the Chiefs at 23 percent, the Rams at 18 percent and the Patriots at 16 percent.
Rams at Saints - For one thing, I'm surprised this was not rescheduled to be the late game as this is an indoor game and the other game is outdoors in January where it will be dark and getting colder as the game continues, but whatever. The Rams have already traveled to New Orleans twice this season, in the final preseason game, the Saints beat them 28-0, and in Week 9, when the Saints won 45-35.
However, in the Week 9 game the Rams did not have CJ Anderson. There was a thread recently about weird careers in the 2000's, and Anderson almost fits that description in that he's had a really weird year. In 2017, he rushed for 1,007 yards for the Broncos, and was promptly released. Unless it was a contract situation, I cannot think of a 1,000 yard rusher who was released by his team after said season. It got even weirder as he went to Carolina to take over for Jonathan Stewart, but Christian McCaffrey took his job, and Anderson was released in mid-November after rushing for just over 100 yards. Then, he was signed by the Raiders and released a week later without even seeing any game action. The Rams pick him up and his career takes off.
The Rams and Saints are second and third in points scored, respectively; the Rams score about a point and a half per game more than the Saints. Defensively, NO has an edge of about two points per game, which overall gives the Saints a half a point per game advantage, plus the home field advantage. The really important stat to look at going into this game, I think, is the Saints rushing defense, which is second in fewest yards allowed, only behind Chicago (Rams were 23rd), and their 3.6 yards per carry was second best in the NFL, only behind Houston at 3.4 (Rams were last at 5.1). I think the Saints are going to shut down the Rams new power running game, which will allow them to key on Goff. Due to the Rams poos run defense, expect a big game for the Saints running backs.
I really think this could be another 45-35 game, and the Rams could very well win this game as these two teams are very offensively explosive, but I have to go with the Saints. My system says the Saints have a 68 percent chance of winning this game, which I think is way too high, and it picks a 33-24 Saints victory.
Patriots at Chiefs - This is the first time that the Chiefs have hosted an AFC Championship game. (Since the 1970 merger, the only teams who have not hosted a Conference Championship game are the Jets, Ravens, Texans, Titans and Lions.) The weather will be in the mid-20's, which will favor neither team.
The Pats won a 43-40 game earlier in the season, in New England, and Mahomes threw four TD's against the Pats defense. New England has an edge in defense, but the Chiefs have a huge edge in offense, as Mahomes had a Brady-esque season. As with the NFC game, this could very well be a repeat of the previous game, this could be another 43-40 game, and New England could very well win, but I don't think Mahomes will be denied today, not in front of his home crowd. My system predicts the Chiefs have a 55 percent chance of winning the game, and will win 28-26. I think the game will be decided in the last two minutes, but KC will pull it out.
"Every time you lose, you die a little bit. You die inside. Not all your organs, maybe just your liver." - George Allen
Decorum keeps me from using expletives to describe what I just witness, so "Holy Hannah", the Pats go back to the Super Bowl yet again in one of the greatest road victories in the history of the Conference Championship game!! People keep trying to quantify Belichick-coached teams but you can't devise a statistic to measure mental toughness. That is the trademark of all his teams, of course having #12 helps a bit, too...
Rupert Patrick wrote:Both Championship games go to OT. It just doesn't get any better than this...
Two great games ... rooted for Kansas City but give New England all the credit. They just wore the Chiefs defense down. Andy Reid is now 1-5 in Conference Championship games.
Rupert Patrick wrote:Both Championship games go to OT. It just doesn't get any better than this...
Two great games ... rooted for Kansas City but give New England all the credit. They just wore the Chiefs defense down. Andy Reid is now 1-5 in Conference Championship games.
The Saints game, as great as it was, will be remembered for the blatant interference that wasn't called. I am watching ESPN Prime Time and they are showing video of a Saints player who is blaming it on the government shutdown?!? It happened with under two minutes to play, but there has to be a way for the replay booth to be able to review a play that somehow gets missed by the refs.
"Every time you lose, you die a little bit. You die inside. Not all your organs, maybe just your liver." - George Allen
It was a very blatant no call and probably should have been called. However they do tend to let the teams play during the playoffs and there are lots of things that would normally get called that don't in the playoffs.
I do think though the Saints would have had a better shot at beating the Patriots than the Rams will though. I think Belichick will dissect this Rams offense as thoroughly as he did the Rams offense in the last Super Bowl these two teams played against eachother.
