Shane Lechler HOF?

[L.C. Greenwood]

I think Shane Lechler will have a difficult time garnering support in a stacked field of candidates. Tremendous punter, but I think the lack of signature moments is a big problem. Ray Guy delivered booming punts for a contender, and everyone remembers that key play early in SB 18, when he snared a bad snap and got the kick away. Steve Tasker also had a bunch of signature moments, and HOF candidates who retired in the 2010s, also have plenty. Just don't think the case is compelling enough, whenhe's facing so many strong candidates.

[Rupert Patrick]

I think Shane Lechler will have a difficult time garnering support in a stacked field of candidates. Tremendous punter, but I think the lack of signature moments is a big problem. Ray Guy delivered booming punts for a contender, and everyone remembers that key play early in SB 18, when he snared a bad snap and got the kick away. Steve Tasker also had a bunch of signature moments, and HOF candidates who retired in the 2010s, also have plenty. Just don't think the case is compelling enough, whenhe's facing so many strong candidates.

Guy was also famous for punting the ball into the overhead gondola inside the Superdome. Lechler will also have to compete with another special teamer named Adam Vinatieri, who will be a no-brainer, and Stephen Gostkowsky is less than seven years away (at his current pace) from passing Vinatieri in the career points race. In addition, I think it is also possible that punting averages will continue to inch upwards, and in 10 or 15 years, Lechler's numbers might not look so good.

[JohnTurney]

In addition, I think it is also possible that punting averages will continue to inch upwards, and in 10 or 15 years, Lechler's numbers might not look so good.

You have to wonder how much better can they get? Same with kickers. Justin Tucker is right at the top and you wonder if he will drop off some or like others, gets better as he gets older...which is scary.. he's at 90% now.

[sluggermatt15]

I also think Lechler is worthy of the HoF. I agree it is going to be difficult for him, kickers, and other special teams players to get in due to strong competition. But with all the politics, etc. it may happen.

What I think Lechler has running for him is he has been very consistent for a while, has(d) a 19-year career, and was an All-Pro six times. I find it hard to believe a guy with six All-Pros to be left out of the HoF. I haven't done the research if this is true.

[sluggermatt15]

I also think Lechler is worthy of the HoF. I agree it is going to be difficult for him, kickers, and other special teams players to get in due to strong competition. But with all the politics, etc. it may happen.

What I think Lechler has running for him is he has been very consistent for a while, has(d) a 19-year career, and was an All-Pro six times. I find it hard to believe a guy with six All-Pros to be left out of the HoF. I haven't done the research if this is true.

After looking this up, there are 7 NFL players who have at least 6 NFL First Team All-Pros who aren't in the HoF.

Peyton Manning (7) - not yet eligible
Alan Faneca (6)
Tony Gonzalez (6) - not yet eligible
Shane Lechler (6) - not yet eligible
Johnny Robinson (6)
Joe Thomas (6) - not yet eligible
Jim Tyrer (6)

Faneca, Tyrer, and Robinson are the only ones who are eligible and have yet to be elected. The others have not been retired for 5+ years.

Very, very interesting. What do you guys think?

[JWL]

Lechler and Tyrer will struggle to get in, but the others will all get inducted

[boknows34]

Rankings certainly don't tell everything...and Lechler had some great years...and those will carry him through, but as the net punting era began in 1976 (when stat was invented) Guy was in the top 8 more often in net...and Lechler had several years where he was not even in top 20 in net.

I guess it's a matter of taste, he's better than Stark and Saurbraun who were the booming types, but it's the Roby-types I prefer

Those rankings suggest Lechler’s peak was from 2007-11. Not only was he either 1st or 2nd for gross punting over those 5 seasons he led the NFL in net punting average for three consecutive seasons (2007-09) and was 2nd and 5th for the next years after.

For those first 12 seasons (2000-11) he led the NFL in net four times, was Top 3 six times in total and Top 5 on seven occasions. The 47% of the time he was Top 8 was at at one point as high as 66.7% before the rankings decline started from 2012, his final season with the Raiders before the move to Houston. That’s still short of Guy’s 78% but the gap was much closer and no doubt Guy’s rankings would’ve also declined towards the end of his career had he punted for 18 seasons.

The two seasons where Lechler ranked outside the Top 20 for those first 12 seasons were 2002 and 2006. The latter was a bad year with 19 punts inside the 20 and 19 touchbacks. The 2002 season was when the Raiders won the AFC Championships and Lechler had career lows by quite a margin for both gross (42.5) and net punting (32.7). Both numbers were significantly lower than his 2nd lowest season averages of 45.7 gross and 36.4 net.

With the Raiders offense really clicking that season under MVP Rich Gannon, and while I don’t have the field position of where Lechler was taking his punts, I’ll take an educated guess he was kicking to a much shorter field that year hence the much lower numbers. His 18-12 ratio wasn’t that great either to be fair so that was certainly a factor too. He was probably seeing a lot more punts from midfield and the opponents’ 45 than from his own 30.

Also worth noting that while Lechler’s rankings of 16th and 9th for net average the last two seasons in Houston don’t jump off the page, he had a combined 62 punts Inside the 20, compared with only 8 Touchbacks. In 2016, his 30/3 gave him a career best 10/1 ratio for Inside 20/TB, while his 18th and final season was the second best (41.3) of his career for net average (career high 43.9 in 2009). Lechler was still an excellent punter but his rankings were hurt by the overall strength and improvement of punters in recent years. Heck maybe we’ll have a thread on Michael Dickson in 2036.

[JohnTurney]

Lechler's gross was 3.9 above NFl avg
net was above NFL avg by 1.7

2.1 yards worse than NFL avg in pun return avg. Certainly coverage and punt have something to do with that

anyway, his gross minus net is below avg.

About have the things he's above avage, and others below

[ChrisBabcock]

He just officially announced his retirement. I think 6 AP1s should get him in someday. But it will take awhile, like Guy.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... i?id=98pTT

[sluggermatt15]

I mentioned before and so have other members, but it's very difficult to grade punters for the HOF. I think he gets in though. The All-Pros definitely help.