Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

74_75_78_79_ wrote: ↑Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:05 am
Of course you had your first MNF game, and I just saw in Pro Football Reference that Dallas was actually favorite by 5.5. I’m pretty sure I remember seeing in the paper leading up to the game that Steelers were favorite.

A quick check of papers on the morning of the game consistently show Dallas as 4.5 to 5-point favorites.

ChrisBabcock wrote: ↑Sat May 17, 2025 9:11 am That's an interesting final outcome for the NFC West they have there. Two 8-8s and two 7-9s.

Yeah, again, a weird way to 'make up' those games; either use a stat engine or come up with your own opinion on how each game goes. Who does win that division had '82 went full? I always couldn't help but to think that San Fran rallies in the end and eeks it out for the 1st Rd bye! But who knows? Sure-enough the Rams have another bad season in 'Year One' before Robinson and Atlanta should at least win 9 games. The Saints? Hard to say but likely a fringe playoff team as they actually were.

Throwin_Samoan wrote: ↑Sat May 17, 2025 9:26 am

74_75_78_79_ wrote: ↑Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:05 am
Of course you had your first MNF game, and I just saw in Pro Football Reference that Dallas was actually favorite by 5.5. I’m pretty sure I remember seeing in the paper leading up to the game that Steelers were favorite.

A quick check of papers on the morning of the game consistently show Dallas as 4.5 to 5-point favorites.

Great dig-up! Yeah, perhaps it was 6th-grade me simply being surprised that back-to-back NFCCG-participant, Dallas, at home was "just" favorite by that much over a team that was 9-7/8-8 the past two years and I ended up remembering it wrong. It sure was a pleasant surprise, though, seeing the 'Burgh pull through; and by more than a TD even! A shame that 57-day-hiatus.

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I'm thinking about the Raiders of that very year. For some time I've agreed with 7Dn and others in that they really weren't their 8-1 record and had '82 went full that they have a winning record but perhaps 9 or 10 wins and not winning the AFC West. But then I also would point out they sweeping San Diego along with clobbering the Falcons at Fulton, 38-14, before the games stopped.

Yes they were #22 in overall defense, but that wasn't on the run-D (nor Lester Hayes either) which were #2 in yards allowed (778) and #4 in Y/A at just 3.3. The Raiders gave up more yards than they gained but their D was on the field many plays more thus still a positive in Y/P at 5.1 to 4.7. They were #1 in both forced turnovers and rushing TDs with Marcus Allen scoring 11 of the 15; and not to mention another 3 receiving TDs which brings me back again to opining that he really should have won MVP (it would have made him the first, and I believe still, the only player to win the Heisman and NFL MVP in back-to-back seasons!

Stats don't always tell the full tale. They likely have the same stats had '82 went full yet still maybe finish with 12 or 13 wins anyway. They let the Browns hang around for a while in the 1st Rd but is it really a disgrace (they did pull away, in the end) two years removed from that 'Cardiac' season with another winning season on the way the following year? Raiders did come close to beating the Jets who, indeed, were more than a fine team; NYJ likely finishing 11-5 or 12-4 in a full '82.

An AFCCG meeting between the Raiders and Dolphins is intriguing. I'd like to think Miami wins but, remember, this was in the midst of the Raiders' hold on them. And the game would have been in LA. And how would the Raiders have done against Washington one year before their actual SB meeting? I lean even more-so on Washington than I would Miami. They were more balanced than they were in '83 and they definitely had a better defense. But Alzado, Long, Hendricks, Millen, Martin up against the Hogs and peak-Riggo fun to think of.

If given the time, a "labor-of-love" passion-project is in order. One that involves getting the original, actual entire 1982 schedule. Starting with Week #3, look at and predict the outcome of every game while further tallying each team's already-two-weeks-in-W/L record in the standings.

And here were the standings after two weeks...

AFC
East: Miami 2-0, Buffalo 2-0, New England 1-1, NY Jets 1-1, Baltimore 0-2
Central: Pittsburgh 2-0, Cincinnati 1-1, Cleveland 1-1, Houston 0-2
West: LA Raiders 2-0, Kansas City 1-1, San Diego 1-1, Denver 1-1, Seattle 0-2

NFC
East: Washington 2-0, Dallas 1-1, Philadelphia 1-1, St. Louis 1-1, NY Giants 0-2
Central: Detroit 2-0, Green Bay 2-0, MInnesota 1-1, Chicago 0-2, Tampa Bay 0-2
West: Atlanta 1-1, New Orleans 1-1, San Francisco 0-2, LA Rams 0-2

And here's the original slate for Week #3...

Thursday Night
Atlanta (1-1) at Kansas City (1-1)

Sunday
Buffalo (2-0) at Houston (0-2)
Dallas (1-1) at Minnesota (1-1)
LA Rams (0-2) at Philadelphia (1-1)
Miami (2-0) at Green Bay (2-0)
NY Giants (0-2) at Pittsburgh (2-0)
NY Jets (1-1) at Baltimore (0-2)
St. Louis (1-1) at Washington (2-0)
Tampa Bay (0-2) at Detroit (2-0)
Denver (1-1) at New Orleans (1-1)
Seattle (0-2) at New England (1-1)
Chicago (0-2) at San Francisco (0-2)
Oakland (2-0) at San Diego (1-1)

Monday Night
Cincinnati (1-1) at Cleveland (1-1)

Dolphins at Packers the only 'battle of 2-0s' here! Would have been a fun match!

The only 0-2 vs 0-2? It would have been the first Ditka vs Walsh showdown instead of having to wait until the following year! If the defending-Champs were to start their rally, this would be the time to do so; but no real panic anyway considering Falcons/Saints tied for 1st at just 1-1.

Raiders at the Murph would be getting far greater attention for the late slot!

As I said before, that Giants game I never saw with much optimism. Let-down written all over it. Especially considering that they're 0-2 and must win.

Cincy at Cleveland on MNF instead of You-Know-What. This ought to butterfly away Dorsett's famous 99-yarder (and, just maybe, a Minny win)!

Now if I could just simply click my picks for each game, a la schedule predictor (while seeing the standings change with each click), then turn the page to Week #4, then #5, then #6...

1982 Week 3 (hypo) predictions;

Thursday Night: Chiefs 21, Falcons 17

Sunday:

Bills 24, Oilers 10
Vikings 20, Cowboys 17 (OT)
Rams 31, Eagles 17
Packers 34, Dolphins 24
Steelers 28, Giants 10
Jets 28, Colts 3
Redskins 24, Cardinals 17
Lions 21, Bucs 7
Saints 17, Broncos 7
Patriots 21, Seahawks 10
49ers 27, Bears 17
Raiders 38, Chargers 34

Monday Night: Bengals 27, Browns 14

Standings

AFC East: Buffalo 3-0, Miami 2-1, Jets 2-1, Pats 2-1, Colts 0-3
AFC Central: Pittsburgh 3-0, Cincinnati 2-1, Cleveland 1-2, Houston 0-3
AFC West: L.A. Raiders 3-0, Kansas City 2-1, San Diego 1-2, Denver 1-2, Seattle 0-3

NFC East: Washington 3-0, Dallas 1-2, Philadelphia 1-2, St. Louis 1-2, Giants 0-3
NFC Central: Detroit 3-0, Green Bay 3-0, Minnesota 2-1, Chicago 0-3, Tampa Bay 0-3
NFC West: New Orleans 2-1, Atlanta 1-2, San Fran 1-2, Rams 1-2

7DnBrnc53 wrote: ↑Sun May 25, 2025 1:22 pm 1982 Week 3 (hypo) predictions;

Thursday Night: Chiefs 21, Falcons 17

Sunday:

Bills 24, Oilers 10
Vikings 20, Cowboys 17 (OT)
Rams 31, Eagles 17
Packers 34, Dolphins 24
Steelers 28, Giants 10
Jets 28, Colts 3
Redskins 24, Cardinals 17
Lions 21, Bucs 7
Saints 17, Broncos 7
Patriots 21, Seahawks 10
49ers 27, Bears 17
Raiders 38, Chargers 34

Monday Night: Bengals 27, Browns 14

Standings

AFC East: Buffalo 3-0, Miami 2-1, Jets 2-1, Pats 2-1, Colts 0-3
AFC Central: Pittsburgh 3-0, Cincinnati 2-1, Cleveland 1-2, Houston 0-3
AFC West: L.A. Raiders 3-0, Kansas City 2-1, San Diego 1-2, Denver 1-2, Seattle 0-3

NFC East: Washington 3-0, Dallas 1-2, Philadelphia 1-2, St. Louis 1-2, Giants 0-3
NFC Central: Detroit 3-0, Green Bay 3-0, Minnesota 2-1, Chicago 0-3, Tampa Bay 0-3
NFC West: New Orleans 2-1, Atlanta 1-2, San Fran 1-2, Rams 1-2

Nice! Maybe you should do the week-by-week, 7Dn! However, I'd pick quite a few differently, but what do I know? It'd still be cool seeing yours and others'.

Especially if you actually think my Steelers keep it going in an actual convincer against Parcells, Belichick, Erhardt, Crennel, Austin, etc...what a STAFF! The Lawrence Taylor vs Ham/Lambert game that never was (though LT did dismantle Bradshaw that pre-season).

The others I would have went the other way on? I'm thinking the Killer B's actually get the best of Dickey at Lambeau, but it would have been a close game. Shula & Co would have that extra day to prepare as well.

And I'm thinking of a Danny White 4th Q comeback instead (whilst, again, no 99-yard TD). Big D, quite Super Bowl-caliber still, already lost a game. It would be quite a while until they'd lose their second, I think.

Rams by two TDs at the Vet?? They'd be winners again the next year, but a second-straight bad season here. And though I see the Eagles losing a bunch of close games in a full '82 as well (picking up where they left off in '81, can Vermeil fight on through the burnout for an entire season? I'm sure he'd make it to the end) they keep things optimistic for at least another week in what would actually be they winning by two TDs here instead. Sid was back again helping Jaws and the offense.

I feel the simple TB's 0-2 desperation out-does 2-0 Lions even if at Pontiac (hey, you know what happened in the finale the year before). Or maybe revenge motivates the Lions all the more, so it really can go that way as well.

I was thinking Atlanta in the Thursday Nighter at Arrowhead. Chiefs likely don't do well either in a 16-gamer. But, perhaps, the Levy era in KC breathes one last extra breath (2-1) on prime time in front of their home crowd (they finally beat SD the week before).

Neat picks just the same! I guess you see '82 (1 BJ - Before John) would still be a one-BAD-year-wonder season at Mile High.

74_75_78_79_ wrote: ↑Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:21 pm Despite many great seasons starting again in ’83 through the remainder of 20th Century, it seems that NFL football took a slight step back after that notorious 9-game campaign, never to be quite up to par with ’81 and its preceeding years. Perhaps it then took yet another slight step back after ’87.

’98, to me, was the last truly great season; maybe better than ’83 or any of the others leading up to it.

I too consider 1998 to be one of the last truly great seasons, but for me there was one more after that year: 2004. To me, this was the pinnacle of Brady vs. Manning. One won his 3rd Super Bowl in 4 seasons, cementing a dynasty. One was named league MVP after putting up incredible passing numbers, including breaking the passing TD record. One guy wins, the other guy puts up numbers. This was the narrative early in their careers and 2004 displayed it perfectly.

Then of course you had the Eagles finally making the Super Bowl after losing the NFC Championship Game the prior 3 seasons.

The list of head coaches this season was incredible, from old legends (Bill Parcells, Joe Gibbs, Dick Vermeil, Marty Schottenheimer) to modern day titans (Andy Reid, Bill Belichick, Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan, Jon Gruden, Tony Dungy, Tom Coughlin, Bill Cowher).

It was the height of the diva receiver era led by peak Terrell Owens, with Randy Moss, Joe Horn, and Chad Johnson also being key contributors on their teams.

That Ravens defense with Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Deion Sanders coming out of retirement.

It was the final season for the career rushing leader, Emmitt Smith, and the career receiving leader, Jerry Rice.

It was the final season of Brett Favre being "The Man" in Green Bay before Aaron Rodgers was drafted.

And then, of course, you had one of the most memorable drafts with Eli Manning maneuvering himself away from San Diego to New York.

I was 11 in 1982. I am a Packers fan and it always made me mad when I was younger that the Packers' lone playoff season of the 80s has been discounted as a strike fluke of sorts.

I get it now that I'm older, but of the Packers teams from 1981-85 that largely went 8-8, I think the 1982 team was still the best.

The 1981 team had a fifth-place schedule and an offense that hadn't quite hit overdrive.
The 1983 team had an offense that was awesome at times, but the defense was atrocious.
The 1984 team had a much-better defense, but age was catching up to Lynn Dickey and the team started terrible and finished strong.
The 1985 team was a repeat of 1984, but with serious QB issues as Dickey benched himself at one point replaced with dreck like an old Jim Zorn and second-year Randy Wright.

The 1982 team had peak James Lofton, good Lynn Dickey, still solid (if declining) John Jefferson, underrated Paul Coffman and a solid running back combo in Eddie Lee Ivery and (also underrated) Gerry Ellis, a good two-way threat.

The defense ranked 11th in the NFL - yes, taken with a grain of salt given the sample size - with a solid linebacking corps and a secondary that hadn't melted down yet like it would in '83 (perhaps in direct correlation to whether Maurice Harvey was playing or not). Ezra Johnson was still a pass-rushing threat and they got a one-year wonder season out of Casey Merrill.

They also had X-factor Gary Lewis, kick blocker extraordinaire.

The 1982 Packers were much like their early 80s counterparts. Won some games they shouldn't have, lost (or tied against a putrid Colts team) some they shouldn't have. Then again, it was a totally bizarre schedule. Packers only played one regular season game at Lambeau and three in Milwaukee. There were also three road games to finish.

The games they didn't play were:
Miami - probably a loss. Miami's defense would have given them trouble home or away.
Philly at Milwaukee - Maybe a win. That was when Philly declined, but in the normal run of the schedule, maybe the Eagles pull themselves out?
Chicago home and away - Probably a split, but that game was unpredictable at the time. Plenty of weird results at both places until the Bears finally began a run of season sweeps in 1985.
Tampa Bay home and away - Another split. Bucs were still decent.
at Minnesota - Probably a loss.

Those results would have put the Packers at 8-7-1. No idea where that would put the Packers against the rest of the division. Someone probably sneaks the NFC Central at 9-7. Season for Green Bay might have hinged on whether it could sweep the Bears (decent chance) or the Bucs (not as much). Then again, pro-football-reference rates the Packers better via their SRS rating than all but the Dolphins of the teams they didn't play.

Maybe it's best they did have their 5-3-1, a resounding playoff home win, and a relatively honorable loss to the Cowboys.

Nice! Maybe you should do the week-by-week, 7Dn! However, I'd pick quite a few differently, but what do I know? It'd still be cool seeing yours and others'.

I would not mind.

The others I would have went the other way on? I'm thinking the Killer B's actually get the best of Dickey at Lambeau, but it would have been a close game. Shula & Co would have that extra day to prepare as well.

Well, the Pack did have a weak defense, but is Miami going to play on offense the way they did in Week 1 against the Jets? Also, Arnsparger is a defensive genius, but the Dolphins didn't have a great secondary.

Rams by two TDs at the Vet?? They'd be winners again the next year, but a second-straight bad season here. And though I see the Eagles losing a bunch of close games in a full '82 as well (picking up where they left off in '81, can Vermeil fight on through the burnout for an entire season? I'm sure he'd make it to the end) they keep things optimistic for at least another week in what would actually be they winning by two TDs here instead. Sid was back again helping Jaws and the offense.

I don't know. I think that Vermeil will fall apart during the season. He is probably a ticking time bomb. Also, Bert Jones and the Rams can get it going that week.

Neat picks just the same! I guess you see '82 (1 BJ - Before John) would still be a one-BAD-year-wonder season at Mile High.

Probably. They didn't seem right that year from week one.

Ten Minute Ticker wrote: ↑Wed May 28, 2025 1:22 am I was 11 in 1982. I am a Packers fan and it always made me mad when I was younger that the Packers' lone playoff season of the 80s has been discounted as a strike fluke of sorts.

I get it now that I'm older, but of the Packers teams from 1981-85 that largely went 8-8, I think the 1982 team was still the best.

The 1981 team had a fifth-place schedule and an offense that hadn't quite hit overdrive.
The 1983 team had an offense that was awesome at times, but the defense was atrocious.
The 1984 team had a much-better defense, but age was catching up to Lynn Dickey and the team started terrible and finished strong.
The 1985 team was a repeat of 1984, but with serious QB issues as Dickey benched himself at one point replaced with dreck like an old Jim Zorn and second-year Randy Wright.

The 1982 team had peak James Lofton, good Lynn Dickey, still solid (if declining) John Jefferson, underrated Paul Coffman and a solid running back combo in Eddie Lee Ivery and (also underrated) Gerry Ellis, a good two-way threat.

The defense ranked 11th in the NFL - yes, taken with a grain of salt given the sample size - with a solid linebacking corps and a secondary that hadn't melted down yet like it would in '83 (perhaps in direct correlation to whether Maurice Harvey was playing or not). Ezra Johnson was still a pass-rushing threat and they got a one-year wonder season out of Casey Merrill.

They also had X-factor Gary Lewis, kick blocker extraordinaire.

The 1982 Packers were much like their early 80s counterparts. Won some games they shouldn't have, lost (or tied against a putrid Colts team) some they shouldn't have. Then again, it was a totally bizarre schedule. Packers only played one regular season game at Lambeau and three in Milwaukee. There were also three road games to finish.

The games they didn't play were:
Miami - probably a loss. Miami's defense would have given them trouble home or away.
Philly at Milwaukee - Maybe a win. That was when Philly declined, but in the normal run of the schedule, maybe the Eagles pull themselves out?
Chicago home and away - Probably a split, but that game was unpredictable at the time. Plenty of weird results at both places until the Bears finally began a run of season sweeps in 1985.
Tampa Bay home and away - Another split. Bucs were still decent.
at Minnesota - Probably a loss.

Those results would have put the Packers at 8-7-1. No idea where that would put the Packers against the rest of the division. Someone probably sneaks the NFC Central at 9-7. Season for Green Bay might have hinged on whether it could sweep the Bears (decent chance) or the Bucs (not as much). Then again, pro-football-reference rates the Packers better via their SRS rating than all but the Dolphins of the teams they didn't play.

Maybe it's best they did have their 5-3-1, a resounding playoff home win, and a relatively honorable loss to the Cowboys.

Great post! I always thought it was funny, for as bad as the 70s and 80s were for the Packers, over that 5-year span in the early 80s that Packers DID technically have a winning record...

Oszuscik wrote: ↑Tue May 27, 2025 10:20 am

74_75_78_79_ wrote: ↑Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:21 pm Despite many great seasons starting again in ’83 through the remainder of 20th Century, it seems that NFL football took a slight step back after that notorious 9-game campaign, never to be quite up to par with ’81 and its preceeding years. Perhaps it then took yet another slight step back after ’87.

’98, to me, was the last truly great season; maybe better than ’83 or any of the others leading up to it.

I too consider 1998 to be one of the last truly great seasons, but for me there was one more after that year: 2004. To me, this was the pinnacle of Brady vs. Manning. One won his 3rd Super Bowl in 4 seasons, cementing a dynasty. One was named league MVP after putting up incredible passing numbers, including breaking the passing TD record. One guy wins, the other guy puts up numbers. This was the narrative early in their careers and 2004 displayed it perfectly.

Then of course you had the Eagles finally making the Super Bowl after losing the NFC Championship Game the prior 3 seasons.

The list of head coaches this season was incredible, from old legends (Bill Parcells, Joe Gibbs, Dick Vermeil, Marty Schottenheimer) to modern day titans (Andy Reid, Bill Belichick, Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan, Jon Gruden, Tony Dungy, Tom Coughlin, Bill Cowher).

It was the height of the diva receiver era led by peak Terrell Owens, with Randy Moss, Joe Horn, and Chad Johnson also being key contributors on their teams.

That Ravens defense with Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Deion Sanders coming out of retirement.

It was the final season for the career rushing leader, Emmitt Smith, and the career receiving leader, Jerry Rice.

It was the final season of Brett Favre being "The Man" in Green Bay before Aaron Rodgers was drafted.

And then, of course, you had one of the most memorable drafts with Eli Manning maneuvering himself away from San Diego to New York.

I actually think 2004 was one of the weaker seasons since the Pats repeating seemed almost a foregone conclusion when Corey Dillon basically whined and cried his way away from an up and coming Cincinnati team to basically guarantee a cheap ring