Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

This is quite likely a very unpopular idea, but I have to defer to Belichick, who let Vinatieri go after 10 seasons and replaced him with Gostkowski, who has now been with the Patriots for 12 seasons. That answers the question for me.

rhickok1109 wrote:This is quite likely a very unpopular idea, but I have to defer to Belichick, who let Vinatieri go after 10 seasons and replaced him with Gostkowski, who has now been with the Patriots for 12 seasons. That answers the question for me.

I don't know why it would be unpopular. Too me, Gostkowski is the better kicker. The equalizer -if you switch the conversation to things like "fame"- are things like "clutch" or who's had the more known/famous FG's, which is of course Vinatieri. One could say they would want Gostkowski but if they had to have a K to make a kick with the game on the line then they'd want Vinatieri. But if you can only pick one for the entirety of a game/season/career I'd want Gostkowski.

Statistically, Gostkowski is a little better than Vinatieri. I'll use some of the analytics I use to evaluate kickers. Gostkowski has a big edge in career points per game 8.77 to 7.33; in fact, Gostkowski's 8.77 kicking points per game is the highest of any kicker in pro football history, Vinatieri is number 18. (I did a list of the top 25 in kicking points per game, and all 25 of them played in the 21st century and I think the only one of the list who hasn't played in the past five seasons is Mike Vanderjagt.)

Kicking Percentage (or K%) is a simple percentage I came up with for evaluating kickers. The formula is:

K% = 100* (3*FGM + XPM) / (3*FGA + XPA)

In short, it is a simple ratio (multiplied by 100) of how many points a kicker scored within the context of how many points he would have scored had he been successful on all of his field goal and extra point attempts. Vinatieri's career K% is 88.4 (14th all time), while Gostkowski is 91.5 (2nd all time, tied with Chris Boswell and Dan Bailey). Jason Tucker is number one with 92.5.

Vintieri's career Points Above League or PAL is 56.59, meaning over the course of his 22-year career, I roughly estimate he has scored about 56.59 points more than another kicker has who played the same seasons and kicked the same number of field goals and extra points in each season. Gostkowski's career PAL after 12 seasons is 52.97, 17th all time, while Vinatieri is 15th all time.

I adjust PAL for context in two different ways; the first is by dividing by kicking points scored and multiplying by 100, and the second is by dividing PAL by games played and multiplying by 16. Putting PAL in the context of "PAL per 100 Points Scored", Vinatieri has a career score of 2.3, and Gostkowski has a career score of 3.3, neither of which are in the top 25. By comparison, Nick Lowery came in at 7.7, Lou Groza came in at 7.1, Jim Bakken came in at 7.0 and Garo Yepremian came in at 6.9. Using the context of "PAL per 16 games", Vinatieri has a career score of 2.67, while Gostkowski has a career score of 4.61. Again, neither make the top 25. Nick Lowery has a career PAL per 16 games of 8.05, Justin Tucker is at 7.50, tied with Vanderjagt, Jim Bakken is at 6.83, Lou Groza is at 6.67, and Yepremian is at 6.52.

PAL2 is a more accurate version of PAL, where it examines every field goal attempt and examines how successful the rest of the league that season was in attempts from the same distance. Over the course of his career, Vinatieri's PAL2 is 38.74 and Gostkowski is at 26.78; neither is in the top 25. (Lowery is number one at 136.26.) One thing I have found in studying PAL and PAL2 is that if PAL2 is higher than PAL, the kicker is generally underrated, but if PAL is higher than PAL2, (as in the case of Gostkowski and Vinatieri) the kicker is generally overrated.

Applying the same context metrics to PAL2, dividing by points scored and multiplying by 100, Vinatieri comes in at 1.6, Gostkowski at 1.7, which is nowhere near the top 25. The leader, surprisingly, is 80's kicker Donald Igwebuike with a career score of 9.2, followed by Sam Baker at 8.3, Lowery at 8.0, Bakken at 7.3, and Yepremian and Jan Stenerud at 7.1. Rating by career PAL2 per 16 games, Vinatieri scores a 1.83 while Gostkowski scores a 2.33, neither cracks the top 25. The high scores are Igwebuike at 8.80, Tucker at 8.76, Lowery at 8.32, Baker at 7.48 and Stenerud at 7.30.

My final analysis is that while both Vinatieri and Gostkowski are probably the two most prolific kickers of all time, from a statistical standpoint, neither is among the top 15 kickers of all time. I think there are a number of kickers, who, given the situations that Vinatieri and Gostkowski have been given, playing for great teams, would have been much more successful than Vinatieri and Gostkowski have been.

I think everything I included in my previous post to this thread was brought to light with Gostowski's sub-par performance in Super Bowl LII. Earning All-Pro Honors from being part of a high-powered offense and getting alot of FG and XP attempts is one thing, even being able to kick the ball very far certainly makes Gostowski stand out from his peers. But his repeated failure to convert basic and clutch kicks in big-game moments is why he clearly an inferior overall kicker to Adam Vinatieri.

If the Pats had not gone cheap and had kept Vinatieri, they might very well have 8 or 9 Super Bowl titles by now.

All-time clutch kickers are very few, and Vinatieri has made more big kicks than anyone. He's an HOF Kicker if there ever was one. And he can still hit from 50+ at this age. While I certainly appreciate the stat-analysis that was included in this thread, by the eye test I'd bet on Vinatieri in a clutch moment to decide a game. Pats made a big mistake to get rid of their lucky rabbit's foot.

I’ve never been a fan of the “eye test,” myself. Unless that includes good quality film study.

Who would be #3 after Gostkowski and Vinatieri.

John Smith? Matt Bahr? Only there for 2 1/2 years but did pretty well.

Tony Franklin perhaps

sheajets wrote:Who would be #3 after Gostkowski and Vinatieri.

John Smith? Matt Bahr? Only there for 2 1/2 years but did pretty well.

Tony Franklin perhaps

Gino Cappelletti?

superbowlfanatic wrote:I think everything I included in my previous post to this thread was brought to light with Gostowski's sub-par performance in Super Bowl LII. Earning All-Pro Honors from being part of a high-powered offense and getting alot of FG and XP attempts is one thing, even being able to kick the ball very far certainly makes Gostowski stand out from his peers. But his repeated failure to convert basic and clutch kicks in big-game moments is why he clearly an inferior overall kicker to Adam Vinatieri.

If the Pats had not gone cheap and had kept Vinatieri, they might very well have 8 or 9 Super Bowl titles by now.

It would help if you could actually a case where Gostkowski missed a kick that prevented the Patriots from winning a Super Bowl.

BTW, it was pretty clear that his miss against the Eagles was caused by a very bad snap.

rhickok1109 wrote:

superbowlfanatic wrote:I think everything I included in my previous post to this thread was brought to light with Gostowski's sub-par performance in Super Bowl LII. Earning All-Pro Honors from being part of a high-powered offense and getting alot of FG and XP attempts is one thing, even being able to kick the ball very far certainly makes Gostowski stand out from his peers. But his repeated failure to convert basic and clutch kicks in big-game moments is why he clearly an inferior overall kicker to Adam Vinatieri.

If the Pats had not gone cheap and had kept Vinatieri, they might very well have 8 or 9 Super Bowl titles by now.

It would help if you could actually a case where Gostkowski missed a kick that prevented the Patriots from winning a Super Bowl.

BTW, it was pretty clear that his miss against the Eagles was caused by a very bad snap.

He missed an extra point in SB 51 where the Pats saved his bacon by pulling off 2 2-pt-XP's.
He missed 2 kicks in this year''s Super Bowl, only 1 of which was a bad snap. And he still could have made that kick, since it was short and no one blocked it - any decent kicker should be able to make a no-step kick - that is how we all warm up to start with. He's not mentally tough enough to come through in big spots.
He missed an XP vs. Broncos in AFC title game, and Pats failed 2-pt XP to tie at end as result, adn could have gone to OT and made it to SB 50.
These are SO obvious - how could anyone whose paying attention forget them !?!
Vinatieri never put his team in any holes like these. There is no comparison. Vinatieri is the much better clutch kicker.

I was at SB52 and watched Gostkowski warm up. Many of his kicks were wide right and he could not hit a FG beyond 48 (he kept missing 53 yarders) He simply is not mentally tough enough in big spots, simple as that. Yes he is prolific and scores alot of points, and makes FG's when the game is not on the line. But to choke on XP's like he has the past 3 years since the kick conversion line has been moved back just shows what he is really made of.

superbowlfanatic wrote:

rhickok1109 wrote:

superbowlfanatic wrote:I think everything I included in my previous post to this thread was brought to light with Gostowski's sub-par performance in Super Bowl LII. Earning All-Pro Honors from being part of a high-powered offense and getting alot of FG and XP attempts is one thing, even being able to kick the ball very far certainly makes Gostowski stand out from his peers. But his repeated failure to convert basic and clutch kicks in big-game moments is why he clearly an inferior overall kicker to Adam Vinatieri.

If the Pats had not gone cheap and had kept Vinatieri, they might very well have 8 or 9 Super Bowl titles by now.

It would help if you could actually a case where Gostkowski missed a kick that prevented the Patriots from winning a Super Bowl.

BTW, it was pretty clear that his miss against the Eagles was caused by a very bad snap.

He missed an extra point in SB 51 where the Pats saved his bacon by pulling off 2 2-pt-XP's.
He missed 2 kicks in this year''s Super Bowl, only 1 of which was a bad snap. And he still could have made that kick, since it was short and no one blocked it - any decent kicker should be able to make a no-step kick - that is how we all warm up to start with. He's not mentally tough enough to come through in big spots.
He missed an XP vs. Broncos in AFC title game, and Pats failed 2-pt XP to tie at end as result, adn could have gone to OT and made it to SB 50.
These are SO obvious - how could anyone whose paying attention forget them !?!
Vinatieri never put his team in any holes like these. There is no comparison. Vinatieri is the much better clutch kicker.

I was at SB52 and watched Gostkowski warm up. Many of his kicks were wide right and he could not hit a FG beyond 48 (he kept missing 53 yarders) He simply is not mentally tough enough in big spots, simple as that. Yes he is prolific and scores alot of points, and makes FG's when the game is not on the line. But to choke on XP's like he has the past 3 years since the kick conversion line has been moved back just shows what he is really made of.

Gostkowski is 34 of 38 on FGs in the playoffs, 89.5%. He's missed 4 in 25 games. Vinatieri is 56 of 68, 82.4%. He's missed 12 in 30 games. With the Patriots, he was 26 of 34, 76.5%, and he missed 8 in 17 games.