Professional Football Researchers Association Forum

Todd Pence wrote:The 1977 Broncos are considered one of the greatest Cinderella teams of all time. But by your criteria, they are disqualified since they had a winning record the year before at 9-5. The winning slate, only the second in franchise history, did not earn them a playoff berth and indeed was actually considered a failure at the time. As one Broncos player put it "The worst we could have done with that schedule was 9-5."

I don't think the 1977 Broncos were a Cinderella team at all; I was 13 at the time and going into the 1977 season I expected them to win at least 9 games and be in the thick of the playoff hunt once again. In 1976 they were 7th in the league in offense (with Steve Ramsey at QB), 6th in defense, and after the two losses to Oakland, they lost at Cincinnati, at New England, and at Houston when Ramsey had a 5-19 passing day. In virtually every Cinderella team or surprise team, there is what I refer to as The Straw (going back to the famous Reggie Jackson comment when he joined the Yankees) in that a new player or players shows up on the scene that year who are either a missing piece, or are a proven leader or the team rallies behind them, or are dynamic in some way that it totally shakes up the team and turns them around completely. When a lot of teams make a great leap forward, as the 1977 Broncos did, there is a so-called Straw, and that was both Craig Morton and Red Miller. The Broncos were already a pretty good team before Morton and Miller got there, after they got there they were suddenly a championship calibre team, at least for one season. I was delighted to see Denver go to the Super Bowl, but not shocked. I put the 1977 Broncos into the class of a very good team making a great leap forward.

Jay Z wrote:Not to pick on Rupert, but I think I would have used a formula rather than the rigid criteria approach. The 1972 Packers are another team that would seem to qualify as a surprise team, with some obvious weaknesses and no follow-up at all. Yet they're out of consideration, because of a 8-6 record three years earlier.

I would like to see your formula.

Rupert Patrick wrote:

Todd Pence wrote:The 1977 Broncos are considered one of the greatest Cinderella teams of all time. But by your criteria, they are disqualified since they had a winning record the year before at 9-5. The winning slate, only the second in franchise history, did not earn them a playoff berth and indeed was actually considered a failure at the time. As one Broncos player put it "The worst we could have done with that schedule was 9-5."

I don't think the 1977 Broncos were a Cinderella team at all; I was 13 at the time and going into the 1977 season I expected them to win at least 9 games and be in the thick of the playoff hunt once again. In 1976 they were 7th in the league in offense (with Steve Ramsey at QB), 6th in defense, and after the two losses to Oakland, they lost at Cincinnati, at New England, and at Houston when Ramsey had a 5-19 passing day. In virtually every Cinderella team or surprise team, there is what I refer to as The Straw (going back to the famous Reggie Jackson comment when he joined the Yankees) in that a new player or players shows up on the scene that year who are either a missing piece, or are a proven leader or the team rallies behind them, or are dynamic in some way that it totally shakes up the team and turns them around completely. When a lot of teams make a great leap forward, as the 1977 Broncos did, there is a so-called Straw, and that was both Craig Morton and Red Miller. The Broncos were already a pretty good team before Morton and Miller got there, after they got there they were suddenly a championship calibre team, at least for one season. I was delighted to see Denver go to the Super Bowl, but not shocked. I put the 1977 Broncos into the class of a very good team making a great leap forward.

When the Broncos traded for Morton, this is the story: Lyle Alzado met Morton, and he said this to him: "Now we win a championship.".

7DnBrnc53 wrote:

I do feel confident that I found the two Super Bowl winners who were true Cinderella teams, the 1981 49ers and 1999 Rams. Both were shockers and the odds against them winning the Super Bowl before the season must have been astronomical.

These are teams that literally came out of nowhere, teams that nobody saw coming

On the subject of the 1981 49ers, one book I have from that year said that they were a team on the upswing (but didn't have the talent to challenge for a SB). 8-8 would probably have been a good prediction for them going into that year (they were 6-10 in 1980 after only winning two games in 1979). However, getting a defense practically overnight (Hacksaw, Lott, Wright, Williamson, Dean) accelerated their improvement.

As for the 1999 Rams, I remember seeing a prediction of 6-10 in one preview (Pro Football Weekly, I think). Miami and Minnesota were the picks by a lot of people for the SB that year.

although some may have seen the talent that was building up in Pittsburgh under Chuck Noll and in Buffalo under Marv Levy and knew that sooner or later they were going to come together.

Good point. You can also say that about the early-90's Cowboys.

I have a question, though: What would you call the 2001 Patriots, if they aren't a Cinderella team? That team wasn't picked to do jack that year. Mel Kiper said that they would go 0-16.

Kiper could really be a clown sometimes. The Patriots won 5 games the year before and 8 the year before that. They still had a good QB in Bledsoe and brought in some defensive vets who can still play in the offseason (Bryan Cox, Roman Phifer, Otis Smith, Anthony Pleasant) they were a 7 win team that had in waiting perhaps the greatest QB of all time. As well as some "other" advantages perhaps

Rupert Patrick wrote:

Jay Z wrote:Not to pick on Rupert, but I think I would have used a formula rather than the rigid criteria approach. The 1972 Packers are another team that would seem to qualify as a surprise team, with some obvious weaknesses and no follow-up at all. Yet they're out of consideration, because of a 8-6 record three years earlier.

I would like to see your formula.

I'd probably keep tweaking it until I got a result I liked. Seriously, in a "fun stat" subjective measure such as this, I'd play around until I felt I captured all facets of Cinderella or surprise teams.

What would you call a team that had losing seasons in each of the three previous campaigns but strictly had a winning record but no playoff berth? Two instant examples include ’66 Eagles and ’89 Packers. Any others?

74_75_78_79_ wrote:What would you call a team that had losing seasons in each of the three previous campaigns but strictly had a winning record but no playoff berth? Two instant examples include ’66 Eagles and ’89 Packers. Any others?

Since both those team fell back into losing records the following season, I don't see how they belong in this discussion. The Packers didn't get into the conference championship game for six years and the Eagles didn't even get into the playoffs for 12 years.

You're talking about "Cinderella teams" that turned into pumpkins about 7 pm

rhickok1109 wrote:

74_75_78_79_ wrote:What would you call a team that had losing seasons in each of the three previous campaigns but strictly had a winning record but no playoff berth? Two instant examples include ’66 Eagles and ’89 Packers. Any others?

You're talking about "Cinderella teams" that turned into pumpkins about 7 pm

Lol!

Now that their season is over, according to my definition of a Cinderella team, we can add the 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars to the list of Cinderella teams. Their previous three seasons they won (respectively) three, five and three games, and the fact that they beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh and went to Foxboro and gave the Belichick all they could handle before losing by four points, I don't see how one could not see them as a Cinderella team. That makes the Jags the 14th Cinderella team in pro football history.

The 2017 Rams fit the definition of a surprise team, as they were under .500 for three straight years and made the postseason but came up short of the league or conference championship game. There are 34 surprise teams.

I've been thinking about redefining a Cinderella team in that if a team's third season previous (for example, for the 2017 Jaguars, it would be the 2014 season), if they finish above .500 but do not play in a postseason game (which includes division tiebreaker games from the pre-Super Bowl era), they can qualify as a surprise or Cinderella team. I'll put that in the spreadsheet and see what happens. The problem I see is that a Cinderella team really has to happen at a fluke level, which statistically is between one in one hundred and one in two hundred. If I make the definition too broad where there are too many of them, then it doesn't work. Currently I have it at 14 Cinderella teams for 1,965 team-seasons from 1933-2017, which is one in 140 times it occurs. In a 32-team league we should expect to see one about every four or five years. The 2017 Jaguars are the first one since the 2003 Panthers, which is a long time since we have had one, but there were four in the 90's and four in the 80's, so I guess it was evening out.

EDIT: This redefinition added one new Cinderella team, the 2017 Eagles, so the number moves up at 15. However, the number of Surprise teams has increased from 33 to 43. The new teams who were added were the 1957 49ers, 1968 Vikings, 1972 Packers, 1991 Jets, 1997 Giants, 2008 Dolphins and Falcons, 2009 Bengals, 2015 Vikings and 2017 Rams. The odds of a surprise team is about 1 in 45, meaning it happens once every 1.5 seasons in a 32-team league, which seems about right.