Aaron Donald returns to play, PFHOF class implications

[PaulPFHOF]

I do think one of the strongest fall outs from the class of 2026 election will be more power, oversight and control by the Hall over the voters and clear strong directions to keep their focus on the best candidates based on performance/outcomes on the field-failure to do so I think will result in the Hall being quicker in future years to remove voters before next cycle.

But in the case of ABrown he crossed a very serious and public line when he simply walked off the field during a game-if questioned why he was not elected, voters could point to that which is very relevant and based on conduct while on the field. Could be enough to hold off electing him for years.

[conace21]

We have to remember though ... the HOF has been getting on to voters about leaving off-the-field exploits outside their thinking on a players deserving on-field play. Ray Lewis was such a great player, they ignored the murder case, though they havent ignored Darren Sharper's criminal charges. You simply cant have a double standard or inconsistency with the bylaws. Admittedly, Lewis wasnt proven to have done "more" than what he was charged with, but witnesses had changed their tune.

It's been pretty clearly established that Ray Lewis didn't murder anyone. A jury determined that his two friends stabbed two men, but that they did so in self defense.

You can certainly be skeptical of the self defense claim, but there is absolutely no evidence that Ray Lewis ever held a knife that night.

The fact is Lewis is a criminal and he is a member of the HOF. Brian is correct, a double-standard does exist.

George Preston Marshall is widely regarded as one of the biggest racists in football history. He was the last owner to integrate his team and he is a member of the HOF.

A double standard indicates two standards for the same thing.

Lewis pled guilty to obstruction of justice. That's a far cry from sexual assault or murder.

[PaulPFHOF]

I played around with a new long term prediction of PFHOF classes for 2027 through 2031 based on new rules-mine is based on 6 per year, but very possible in years with 2-3 very strong first ballot contenders (for example 2027 with Gronk,AP,BenR) we could see classes of 5

25 votes, select 6 out final 7=total votes 150, finalist needs 20 for election (80%)
prediction is based on 6 elected per year (votes estimated) *1st ballot

2027 Gronk* (25)/AP*(22)/Suggs (22)/WAnderson(22)/Yanda(20)/BBelichick (23)

2028 Brady*(25)/Watt(25)*/DWoodson(22)/Holt(22)/RSherman(20)/MShanahan (23)

2029 JKelce* (22)/BenR(22)/Witten(22)/JEvans(22)/KWilliams(20)/MHolmgren (22)

2030 ZMartin* (22)/Eli (21)/PPeterson(22)/Gore(22)/RHarrison(22)/TCoughlin (23)

2031 BWagner*(24)x/Jjones(23)/Wayne(20)/JPeters(20)/SGilmore(20)/AReid (24)

x if he does not return to play in 2026-current status unknown

A few observations-yes these are nearly impossible to be perfect with, very possible order is different, some others possible, some wait even longer past 2031..so its just intended as one example of how this may look. And you can see how just the distribution of a few votes can make difference between elected (20) and not. Could be huge impacts if 2-3 players get 23-25 votes which leaves less for others to clear 20 votes needed for election.

Also you will not see any seniors or contributors here, Kraft is the most likely one, I just decided to focus on players and coaches under assumption that voters will focus more on those catagories-each of which have deep pools of very deserving candidates (coaches compete with players, have no direct path to election but figured these 5 would have very good chances if math gets to 6 elected-most optimistic outcome each year but far from assured)

And interesting that from 2028 through 2031 (four elections) there are really only 2 (3 if Wagner does not play in 2026 and ends up retiring) strong 1st ballot contenders in OC JKelce (2031) and OG ZMartin (2030), both are certain PFHOFers and worthy as first ballot but they also play at two positions (OC/OG) where few have been elected first ballot. They may be elected as such-I decided to go ahead and predict-mostly because they are the only strong 1st ballot contenders those years, but yes very possible they end up waiting a few more years. Although in defense of my decision to predict themas 1st ballot, when they retired actual voters spoke highly of their resumes as PFHOF worthy, that might or might not hold meaning with new group of voters-only time will tell.