YARDS PER PLAY!

[74_75_78_79_]

I initially posted this on the ongoing 1996 season thread. Figuring this post could grow some serious legs thus go in so many places other THAN that very 1996 season, I thought that I should respect Shinobi's 'passion-project' that should simply apply to the 1996 season, and just respond to TMT's post on that thread and make a new, different thread altogether!

The argument that I see posted on this site a lot, and in this discussion specifically, is “the league is weak” used as a mallet to beat the allegedly overrated team over the head with.

I understand it as a point of comparison, but only to a point. What I rarely see acknowledged is that the supposedly overrated team does sometimes have a direct bearing on why some of its opponents were weak, statistically or otherwise.

For example, team stats and overall records for NFC Central teams were used against this Packers team. The Central
teams did have to play those Packers twice so of course their numbers are going to be low. Green Bay went 7-1 against the Central that season.

It seems a bit logically dubious to say a league is “weak” when one team is more dominant than the rest. It’s a sort of backdoor demerit for being that good.

Semi-related, I also think total yardage is a dubious stat in a team comparison context. It doesn’t take into account how much a team runs or passes the ball based on game context. Average per play, per pass attempt, per rushing attempt, is a lot more accurate.

Y/P is my jam! I wish on the Pro Football Reference site, they'd offer the ranking of each team's offense Y/P, defense Y/P, and net Y/P for that season.

(I also wish the site didn't have so many crazy pop-ups along with being real slow at times, as well as slowing down your browser)

I just discovered that the '96 Packers were actually #5 in offense yardage-wise; but, yes, tops in defense! The #1 in both all this time was by points. Now the '77 Cowboys were #1 in both yardage-wise, but #2 in offense and #8 in defense points-wise.

I do think yardage bears more weight/cred than points, but Y/P - to me - trumps both at the same time!

The '96 Pack were 5.3 per-play on offense, and gave up 4.2 on defense. That's a net of +1.1! I'd imagine that's pretty solid. Then again, I have yet to go through a gauntlet of such numbers from All-Time Great - or simply just mere playoff - teams in history. The '97 Packers were a net +1.0 (5.6 O, 4.6 D).

The '77 Cowboys were a net +1.3! (5.0 O, 3.7 D). And then you got the '78 Cowboys (O&D both #2 in yardage) at 5.4 O and 4.1 D - another net +1.3!

Let's look at the '90s World Champs...(offense, defense, net)...

'90 Giants - 5.0, 4.6, +.4
'91 Redskins - 5.8, 4.5, look, another +1.3!
'92 Cowboys - 5.5, 4.5, +1.0
'93 Cowboys - 5.6, 4.7, +.9
'94 Forty Niners - 5.8, 4.9, +.9
'95 Cowboys - 5.8, 5.0, +.8
'96 Packers - as already noted - 5.3, 4.2, +1.1
'97 Broncos - 5.5, 4.9, +.6
'98 Broncos - 5.9, 4.9, +1.0
'99 Rams - 6.5, 4.7, +1.8!!

And several notable non-SB-winners of the decade...

'96 Broncos - 5.3, 4.7, +.6
'90 Bills - 5.7, 4.7, +1.0
'93 Oilers - 5.3, 4.9, +.4
'94 Cowboys - 5.2, 4.3, +.9

Yes, its only stats. Stats mean something but never the Alpha and the Omega. This doesn't mean the '99 Rams are best of the decade (though, again, WhatifSports has them as the Best-Ever). But, again, I like this better than just plain yardage, and just plain yardage is better than points, again IMO.


EDIT - just looked up the 1941 Chicago Bears who, IMO, (Steeler-fandom aside) are the Greatest NFL Team of All-Time cross-ALL-eras...

6.0, 4.0, 2.0!!!!

[Mountaineer Todd]

Yards per play is as flawed a statistic as total yards. To illustrate, let's say one team starts at their own twenty. The run the ball on every play gaining five yards each time. They drive this way eighty yards down the field to a touchdown. That's sixteen plays for 80 yards, an average of 5.0 yards per play. The other team takes over on their own twenty. They complete a pass for fifty yards to a receiver, but the receiver is hit and fumbles, and the first team recovers. So we have team A with a 5.0 YPP average, and team B with a 50 yards per play average. But team A has points on the board, and team B still has a goose egg. An extreme example, but it illustrates the problems with using YPP in and of itself.

Another aspect, let's say, that instead of fumbling, team B's receiver took it to the house for an 80-yard touchdown. So now we have team A with a 5.0 average per play, and team B with a whopping 80 yards per play. But the two teams are still equal on the scoreboard. This is why, as the late great Bob Carroll pointed out, a better metric is the yards PER DRIVE, as opposed to per play. This led me to create my own statistic, Adjusted Yards Per Drive, which I've detailed in the past on this forum.