The Decline of Punting

[SeahawkFever]

Out of curiosity, has anyone done a study into where on the field and on what yardage to go teams would punt at, and how rare it is at midfield now?

Side note: Given the recent increase in teams going for it on fourth down, and therefore the reduced number of mid-field punts, a potential unbreakable record is the 1984 Raiders defense forced 117 punts on the season; about 7.3 per game.

[NWebster]

I've not looked at this, but it's probably a meaningful contributor to the increase in Gross Punting Averages. In a world where the Coffin Corner is no longer a thing and Punters can just go "bombs away" 100% of the time you'd expect averages to meaningfully increase - right? But I wonder if the overall increase dissappears if you control for the position on the field?

[JuggernautJ]

There's some interesting stuff regarding punting in this thread from not too long ago:
https://www.profootballresearchers.com/ ... php?t=7756

This little bit (from yours truly) helps to emphasize how much the strategy of punting has changed over the last 100+ years:

From Chris Willis' book The NFL's 60-Minute Men, page 80:
"...Lewellen punted 84 times in 1929. The breakdown was: 1st down (24 times); 2nd down (8); 3rd down (27); and 4th down (25)."

That gives us some idea of the ratio of punts/down during the time in which punting was used to establish field position.

[NWebster]

Alright, so I actually pulled the data, and I must say I was surprised how much punting has improved even when you control for many fewer Punts near the endzone.

A few interesting insights, from 2000 - 2004, there was no field position from which Punters across the league averaged over 50-yards per Punt, in 2024 there were 25 different yard lines from which the average was >50, including as far forward as the 39-yard-line from which Punters averaged 50.2 yards.

In 2000, 20% of Punts were on the other team's side of the field by 2024 that was just 13% (I actually thought that would be lower), from your own 40 on that was 44% of Punts in 2000 and 35% in 2024.

There has been a 6.7 Yard increase in Avg Punt from 2000 to 2024, but if you control for yard-line that difference drops to 4.6 Yards, so approximately 30% of the difference is due to Punters not having to Punt deep in opponent territory, but the remainder is truly just an improvement in Punting.

[sluggermatt15]

Out of curiosity, has anyone done a study into where on the field and on what yardage to go teams would punt at, and how rare it is at midfield now?

Side note: Given the recent increase in teams going for it on fourth down, and therefore the reduced number of mid-field punts, a potential unbreakable record is the 1984 Raiders defense forced 117 punts on the season; about 7.3 per game.

Nice observations.

Well teams are still going to punt on fourth and long, right? Fourth and 8, 9, 10+ yards to go, I mean. I think it would be interesting to see what the stats are on the percentages of teams that used to punt on 4th & 5 and shorter to go and what they are going for it now. And how (and if) that trend changes when it gets to 4th and long. What is the yardage to go (or "line") that teams draw between punting and going for it?

[NWebster]

Out of curiosity, has anyone done a study into where on the field and on what yardage to go teams would punt at, and how rare it is at midfield now?

Side note: Given the recent increase in teams going for it on fourth down, and therefore the reduced number of mid-field punts, a potential unbreakable record is the 1984 Raiders defense forced 117 punts on the season; about 7.3 per game.

Nice observations.

Well teams are still going to punt on fourth and long, right? Fourth and 8, 9, 10+ yards to go, I mean. I think it would be interesting to see what the stats are on the percentages of teams that used to punt on 4th & 5 and shorter to go and what they are going for it now. And how (and if) that trend changes when it gets to 4th and long. What is the yardage to go (or "line") that teams draw between punting and going for it?

A few more kernels - the shortest-field Punt last year was 2 from the opponents 35-yard line. In 2000, there were 31 Punts from the +35, and amazingly there was a single Punt from the +24. I literally wonder if the retirement of Big Ben effectively killed the pooch?

[LeonardRachiele]

In the past few years, playing defense has become much more difficult. Rule changes have generally been in favor of offense. Teams figure the opponent will move the ball anyway. Once you are at midfield it's best just to got for the first down especially in short yardage situations.

The other reason for the decline of punting is that 50-60 yard field goals are now quite common.