Teams since 1941 ranked by "Luck" rating

[7DnBrnc53]

In the luckiest list, I don't see the 1995 Chiefs and 1993 Bills.

Also, for the unluckiest, I agree with the 83 and 89 Bengals (they seemed to have bad luck the rest of the 80's after their stellar 1981 and 82 seasons) and 1995 Broncos.

[74_75_78_79_]

Strange Mackovic era in KC.

In '83 they finished 6-10, yet the #9 offense and #14 defense. +19 PD with 5.2 Y/P on offense, allowing 4.9 on D. Sure sounds like a candidate for "most unluckiest"! Not to mention, off-paper, tragically losing Joe Delaney before the season.

In '84 & '85 they finish 8-8 & 6-10 respectively whilst having the same exact Y/P on both offense and defense in each season.

Yet in '86, Mack's winning season/playoff year at 10-6, KC was 28th in offense and a negative Y/P (offense 4.2, defense 4.5)! Go figure. The finale win over the Steelers perhaps 'Exhibit A' to the strangeness of this campaign.


And I've mentioned those '12 Colts before...11-5, minus-30 PD, 5.2 Y/P on offense, but allowing 6.0 on D! 41-21, 35-9, and 59-24 blowouts at Chicago, at Jets, and at Pats respectively the main culprits. Yet, strangely, in their 1st Rd bounce-out in Baltimore, 24-9, they put up more 1st downs than the Ravens at 25 to 18, and had the ball for more than 37 minutes!

[7DnBrnc53]

1981 New England Patriots

You Tuber CCC Productions has a series that counts down the most disappointing teams ever. He has the 81 Pats at 18th:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMf3073b3LI

1982 Kansas City Chiefs

The 1981 Chiefs would also be a good candidate for one of the unluckiest teams.

[CSKreager]

No 2003 Panthers?

[SeahawkFever]

No 2003 Panthers?

By my count there are 378 teams since 1941 with a higher luck rating than the 2003 Panthers including the Patriots, Bears, Chiefs, and Bengals in the same season.

The Cowboys had the same favorable margin of luck by the metric.

[CSKreager]

No 2003 Panthers?

By my count there are 378 teams since 1941 with a higher luck rating than the 2003 Panthers including the Patriots, Bears, Chiefs, and Bengals in the same season.

The Cowboys had the same favorable margin of luck by the metric.

Carolina won 9 regular season games by 8 points or less

[SeahawkFever]

No 2003 Panthers?

By my count there are 378 teams since 1941 with a higher luck rating than the 2003 Panthers including the Patriots, Bears, Chiefs, and Bengals in the same season.

The Cowboys had the same favorable margin of luck by the metric.

Carolina won 9 regular season games by 8 points or less

They did, but their record relative to the league isn’t quite as far off from their stats relative to the league when compared to the other teams I mentioned were (as far as record outperforming statistical dominance).

2003 Patriots in particular had the best record in the NFL at 14-2, but had eight wins of eight points or less, and one 31 point loss (they showed up as only ninth by score percentage; Carolina by contrast shows up as right behind them by the metric but has the seventh best record so not as huge an overperformance).

[Ten Minute Ticker]

Luck is just a function of how you performed against your score differential, right? Or is there more to it?

I’m sure as heck not going to do it, but it would be interesting to see how coaches rate in “luck”. I see the early 90s Colts high on the list, so Ted Marchibroda would score high for that era.

[SeahawkFever]

Luck is just a function of how you performed against your score differential, right? Or is there more to it?

I’m sure as heck not going to do it, but it would be interesting to see how coaches rate in “luck”. I see the early 90s Colts high on the list, so Ted Marchibroda would score high for that era.

Luck is in fact the difference between the percentile of your score% differential and the percentile of your win percentage that season.

If a team for example had the best record but average stats, then their “luck” would be very high (ex: 2022 Vikings).

If a team had a middling record but good stats, then their “luck” would be very low. (ex: 1983 Chiefs)

If the team’s stats are the same percentile relative to the league as their record (ex: 1991 Colts were the worst team by both stats and record, or the 1985 Bears were the best by both), then their result will be zero.

As for coaches. Didn’t pay too much attention to that when I initially made this post, but I can go look back.

Any coaches who you would be intrigued to hear the cumulative career “luck” of in the regular season?

[SeahawkFever]

Out of curiosity, are the 2025 Cardinals looking like a quintessential "unlucky team", or a team that will lose a ton of close games and underperform its stats by record?

They just had their fifth straight loss by one possession.