2025 NFL season predictions

[Brian wolf]

Just hoping there isnt another Swiftie Super Bowl Moment ... please Buffalo or Baltimore, stop the Chiefs from getting there.
Would love to see the Chargers making the SB.

[Reaser]

Instead of 'what six new teams will make the playoffs?" I think we'll see a lot of the same this season. The Bengals the best bet to grab a spot in the AFC but I have them coming up a game short. In the NFC the only real difference is that I think the 49ers will have a bounce-back season, the Vikings take a step back and the last wild card spot a 3-way battle between NFC West teams, potentially even getting the last spot with a losing (8-9) record. And if could be the Rams which would be another repeat playoff team though I got the Seahawks by a game. Same/similar playoffs with a couple different matchups and difference in who is home/away, but ends with a repeat champion.

AFC
West: (3) LAC 13-4, (5) KC 12-5, (7) DEN 10-7, LV 7-10
North: (2) BAL 14-3, (6) PIT 10-7, CIN 9-8, CLE 3-14
South: (4) HOU 11-6, JAX 6=11, TEN 4-13, IND 4-13
East: (1) BUF 14-3, MIA 9-8, NE 8-9, NYJ 4-13

NFC
West: (3) SF 13-4, (7) SEA 9-8, LAR 8-9, ARI 8-9
North: (1) DET 14-3, (5) GB 12-5, MIN 7-10, CHI 5-12
South: (4) TB 12-5, ATL 8-9, CAR 3-14, NO 2-15
East: (2) PHI 14-3, (6) WAS 10-7, DAL 5-12, NYG 4-13

Super Bowl: Eagles over Ravens

[JWL]

Feel free to not count my picks since they were posted here after the Week 1 games and one game from Week 2, but the below stuff is what I sent to coworkers who entered an over/under contest with me this season. In addition to sending a spreadsheet with everyone's picks I also wrote a bunch of stuff about the NFL.


NFC
Division winners- Eagles, Vikings, Buccaneers, Rams
Wild Card teams- Packers, 49ers, Lions

I see the Lions as a 10-win team this year. The loss of coordinators and the hangover of winning 15 games and bowing out right away in the playoffs are concerns. If they miss the playoffs entirely I won’t be surprised. Maybe the Falcons or Cardinals could sneak in. The Cardinals fixed their defense a lot but their quarterback Kyler Murray is not really good.

I took the 49ers under 10.5 wins but I think they will win 9 or 10 games and make the playoffs.

I don’t think the Giants will be good. Daboll is back. To paraphrase The Police- A year has passed since I wrote my note. You should have known this right from the start.

The Cowboys chose to trade a top player a few days before the season started when they dealt Micah Parsons to the Packers.

Dear Cowboys,

Good luck with that choice!

Your pal,

John



AFC
Division winners- Bills, Ravens, Jaguars, Broncos
Wild Card team- Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers

My AFC picks had too much chalk and I don’t love the Texans so I decided to go with the Jaguars in the AFC South. Maybe their goofy new head coach will pan out at least for a year as sometimes a new head coach pays off.

I do like Cam Ward as the new Titans quarterback. The team has a bunch of holes but Ward might be good enough to help them win 6 or 7 games.

Super Bowl
Rams over Bills



The paraphrasing from "Message In a Bottle" was due to this writing earlier in the commentary-

Giants

To get to my 2025 Giants thoughts we first need to reexamine an abridged version of stuff I wrote about the Giants head coach last year on December 4 (those of you who were in the season-long contest last year got this writeup in my “midseason report” even though it was more like three fourths of the way through the season if we include the playoffs of part of that)-


Brian Daboll
Head coaches who coach their teams to a winning percentage of under .250 in anything other than their first season coaching a particular team? Those head coaches proved they couldn’t coach that team. The Giants winning percentage as of this writing is .167. Is this Daboll’s first year coaching the Giants? It is not. Therefore, we have a problem.

I did the research maybe a dozen years ago. I think I have a spreadsheet somewhere. If memory serves, John McKay was the only head coach of the first 90 who had a winning percentage of under .250 in a non-1st year season with a particular team and rebound from it to take that same team to the playoffs in a later year. One of 90. McKay had an excuse. He was coaching an expansion team and was given great leash.

{John McKay's coaching record from Pro Football Reference appears here in the actual e-mail I sent but I'm not going to try to post it here]

You can see the sub .250 winning percentage in 1977 in what was not his rookie year as the team’s head coach. He took the team to the NFC title game two seasons later. We later can see he had another sub .250 season in 1983. He should have been canned after that season. When you coach a team to that horrific of a record? Unless you have an expansion team excuse, you have no excuse. Time to go.

The problem with being sub .250 is a real concern. It is not me looking at old football records and recognizing a pattern. Sure, old head coaches who had bad seasons 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago have nothing to do with Daboll. The problem is being sub .250 speaks to not being prepared, not having proper attention to detail, and it means losing control of your team.


Okay, back to September 2025.

The Giants head coach is still Brian Daboll.

He finished last season with a .176 winning percentage.

That is a problem.

The Giants are all of a sudden going to be good?

Why?

Because they added some nice defensive players?

I’m not buying it.

I thought the decision to sign Jameis Winston was fine. Then they signed Russell Wilson four days later. I didn’t understand the Wilson signing. Right now Winston is a better quarterback. He is also by all accounts I’ve ever heard a better teammate than is Wilson. Wilson has never shown any ability or desire to work with a young quarterback. Don’t be surprised if he mopes or asks for a trade or release if he gets benched by Daboll at some point.

[JWL]

Hi everyone, hope you are all doing well!

Out of curiosity, what predictions do you all have for the 2025 NFL season that is soon to be upon us?

Also if I’m not mistaken they changed the kickoff and touchback rules to encourage more returns. Do you think that will work? And if so, what teams do you think could benefit the most from said rule change?

I don't know who it will benefit. I'm just glad the kickoff rule was altered so that touchbacks would go out to the 35-yard line. Surely this would increase the number of returns. 2024 was not good. Some teams like the Saints and Commanders liked returning kickoffs and kicking so that their opponents would have to return kicks. Other teams didn't like returns at all. The Rams at one point in December I think had only returned a single digit number of kickoffs. They started returning, or to word it differently, having to return kickoffs a little more late in the season.

I have no issue at all with the "dynamic kickoff." I liked it when it was in the XFL. I wanted the NFL to adopt it. The NFL did but took a half measure in 2024. They have fixed it, I believe. The setup looks weird because we are not used to it but change happens in many walks of life. To me, it is fine.

[JWL]

some Jets commentary I made after Week 1

The Jets
First, from last year’s midseason report, let’s look at what I wrote about the Jets and their trade for Davante Adams-

Davante Adams
Adams has been one of my favorite wide receivers. You’d think I’d like him being traded to the Jets. The problem was the timing.

I wrote the following in my fantasy football league’s chat board right after midnight on 10/15. Moments earlier, the Jets had lost on Monday Night Football to fall to 2-4.

At 2-4, hopefully this ends the Davante Adams talk. At 3-3 maybe you consider it. You don’t at 2-4 if you are a right-thinking organization.

Naturally, the Jets, a dopey-thinking organization, traded for Adams about 11 hours after I wrote that. You cannot make it up except with the Jets you can make it up. Any of you can now say, John will go and say the Jets shouldn’t do this dumb thing so you know the Jets will go and do that dumb thing shortly thereafter.



Back to 2025. How about the Jets stop making me write things like this? Wouldn’t that be different and nice for a change?

Through Week 1, they hadn’t done this. I didn’t care about who made the roster this season except for one spot. I did not want Xavier Gipson to make the team. In the 4th quarter of the Week 1 game vs Pittsburgh, as Gipson fielded a kickoff, I said to myself, “This will be a fumble here.” A second later? A fumble occurred. It swung the game in the favor of the Steelers. The Jets did end up taking the lead later at 32-31 but it could still be viewed as the key play in the game.

New Jets head coach Aaron Glenn voiced displeasure to the media after the game. It pointed to Gipson likely being released before Week 2.

Gipson ended up being released before Week 2.

The prior Jets head coaches during this decade and a half of no playoffs would still have Gipson on the team. This might be the turning point- the Xavier Gipson release! Maybe, finally, accountability is back?

Gipson sure seems like a nice guy and it is sad he had to go but it is a business. He had an all-time great Jets moment when he ended the Week 1 2023 game (the Aaron Rodgers Achilles game) with a punt return touchdown in overtime so he’ll always have that. He showed shaky hands and that’s why I didn’t want him on the team this year. Teams should not employ kickoff or punt returners who are not sure-handed.

Gipson also put the ball on the ground following a kickoff return earlier in the game. I dislike when football announcers, other media members, and fans use “he put the ball on the ground” as a longer, cool guy way to say “he fumbled” so I certainly don’t engage in that type of talk but I wrote it here because I am not using it in the cool guy way. Gipson literally placed the ball on the ground.

He did not appear to be touched after a long return when he lost his balance trying to avoid a teammate. A fellow Jet fell on the ball so no harm was done but this had to have played a factor in why Gipson was released. Glenn had said it was not only about the 4th quarter fumble as to why Gipson was let go. Interestingly, this “fumble” was not technically ruled a fumble. The TV announcers thought it was a fumble. The officials must have decided that Gipson “gave himself up” on the play. Regardless, it was poor judgment on the part of Gipson.

Brandon Stephens, the cornerback opposite Sauce Gardner, had a terrible game. Safety Tony Adams and nickel cornerback Michael Carter II also had some issues. Stephens really should be converted to safety. He’s too sloppy as a cornerback but he is tough and can tackle. Adams misses too many tackles. I think it is only a matter of time before rookie Malachi Moore takes over for Adams. Since Stephens was signed to a pretty good deal in free agency he has more rope but if he continues to be smoked, then rookie Azareye’h Thomas is going to get some playing time on defense. In Week 1, Thomas was only used on special teams.

[JWL]

some commentary on random players I think can pop this year-

SirVocea Dennis
Dennis is a third-year linebacker for the Buccaneers. He attended the Peddie School for one year. It is a boarding school in Hightstown [edit- this writing was originally written for an audience of New Jersey residents]. He is one of four active players who attended that school at one point (Elic Ayomanor of the Titans and John Metchie and Jahan Dotson of the Eagles are the others). I spent a week at the Peddie School at a baseball camp when I was 11. I enjoyed my time there. Thus, I’ll root for any player who went to that school.

Anyway, Dennis is a potential Pro Bowl linebacker. I made sure to get him in the fantasy football league I am in that has individual defensive players (most fantasy leagues only use offensive players and kickers) because I had an inkling he could blossom this season. In Week 1, he had 10 tackles.




J.J. McCarthy
I took the Vikings over because of this guy. The Vikings won 14 games with Sam Darnold. Although McCarthy had not played in a regular season game until this past Monday, I believe he is better than Darnold. How could the Vikings go from 14 wins with Darnold to under 9.5 with McCarthy? I cannot envision it.

The fact that McCarthy did not play as a rookie I see as fine. Not fine for him personally as dealing with the injury and the rehabilitation was surely mentally and physically taxing but fine in that he did not have a rookie season where he was thrown to the wolves and maybe had to struggle. Daunte Culpepper and Carson Palmer are quarterbacks who, like McCarthy, were drafted in the 1st round and did not throw a pass as a rookie. Both of them played well in their 2nd season. It doesn’t worry me at all that McCarthy did not play last year.


I had the above noted in my season predictions e-mail.

Others I think are interesting to watch-

Raiders DE Malcolm Koonce
He missed all of last season due to injury after looking like he might pan out during the 2023 season. A double digit sack season is a legitimate expectation.


Titans linebacker Cedric Gray
Not sure how good he will be because I wasn't making it a point to watch the disgusting 2024 Titans but this guy might be all right. Then again, maybe not.


Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka
He's my pick for the rookie with the most receptions this season. He already seems to have the polish of a 3rd year pro.


Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Ngijba
He is one of my favorite players. I wrote this about him last year-

This is the player I wanted the Jets to draft in the 1st round of the 2023 draft. Instead, the Jets drafted a pass rusher in Will McDonald IV. I love the idea of drafting pass rushers in the first round so I couldn’t complain. McDonald IV was not used much as a rookie because being a finesse player he is not great against the run and the Jets had a better option to deploy on obvious passing downs (Bryce Huff). McDonald IV is a regular this season and is among the league leaders in sacks. He would function better if/when the team replaces Javon Kinlaw with a better interior lineman.

Smith-Njigba didn’t make much of a dent in 2023. The reason was the Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Waldron did not run a fancy offense. Smith-Njigba did not run a lot of routes. Next Gen Stats shows routes run by receivers. Smith-Njigba in 2023 had seven or so routes. In 2024, he has about two dozen. His 2023 chart was like vanilla ice cream. His 2024 chart is like vanilla ice cream with rainbow sprinkles, hot fudge on the side, and a cherry on top.

To make an analogy to animals (when writing about animals, I make analogies to football, when writing about football, I make analogies to animals), Smith-Njigba in 2023 was like a dog cooped up in an apartment all day and only taken out for a 10-minute walk. Smith-Njigba in 2024 is like a dog that lives in a house with a fenced-in backyard, is given unsupervised backyard time for a couple half hour sessions, and also goes on a walk with its owner into the woods for 45 minutes.

Waldron was gone after the 2023 season. If you want to know what Smith-Njigba thought about it, check out-
https://youtube.com/shorts/WpncHaPe7p8? ... -J3GF7pweg or enter “Jaxon Smith-Njigba Shane Waldron” into the YouTube search bar.


The entire Broncos defense
Patrick Surtain II, Zach Allen, and Nik Bonitto are the stars but John Franklin-Myers, Brandon Jones, Jonathan Cooper, Riley Moss, and Kris Abrams-Draine are all good too. I think the Rams and Broncos might have the best defenses this season.


Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr.
This guy was fun to watch at Indiana and Washington due to being a lefty and having an odd throwing motion at that. Because of that it is like double weirdness when watching him throw the ball. I don't particularly care for his team but he is one of the quarterbacks for whom I will hope to see succeed.


Ravens WR Zay Flowers
He was banished for consideration for me in fantasy football in 2024 due to his egregrious penalty in the 2023 AFC Championship Game which helped annoy most of the country what with having to see and hear about Taylor Swift for two more weeks. Flowers paid his price in my fantasy world. Now he is back. I made sure to draft him. After one week- so far, so good.

[Brian wolf]

Flowers doesnt need to run anymore jet sweeps.

McCarthy will be fine if the Vikings run at least 25 carries a game.

Penix needs healthy receivers. He has to get better on accuracy and should.

[JameisBrownston]

Tampa Bay will be this year what Cincinnati was last year- incredible offensive team that will miss the playoffs because of a horrendous defense and shaky coaching

I agree, except they can't really miss because the division is the worst in football. Emekatron is gonna get Baker some MVP votes.

[CSKreager]

Tampa Bay will be this year what Cincinnati was last year- incredible offensive team that will miss the playoffs because of a horrendous defense and shaky coaching

I agree, except they can't really miss because the division is the worst in football. Emekatron is gonna get Baker some MVP votes.

Baker is a fake tough guy who only looks good against easy schedules but folds against real contenders

Emeka is going to be a Tampa mistake- they will regret not drafting defense

The Bucs need a pass rusher, not another toy for Baker to pad his stats

[Brian wolf]

I think Reddick will rebound for TB this season ...