Best defense with a double-digit lead?

[JohnH19]

Great stuff, Evan! The only other team in that league over the 1968-79 period would be the Raiders.

The Vikings blew all of their double digit leads in the years from 1969-76 when they only gave up an average of 12-13 points per game so I doubt that any team can improve on their record of four losses and a tie.

SB 11 may have been very interesting if Brent McClanahan would have scored rather than fumbled on the Raiders goal line with the game still 0-0.

[Reaser]

Good stuff, Evan.

That's what I was wondering about; year-to-year, opportunities, and then 'blown leads'.

At the very least, it's interesting.

[oldecapecod11]

Reaser » Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:16 pm
"Good stuff, Evan..."

And not unusual...
Evan saved some great threads from the old forum - threads that would have otherwise been discarded.
They are listed in the threads here that show the data saved from the purge.

[Rupert Patrick]

Okay so here is what I found:

1968-1979 (Paul Krause's era with the Vikings)
Records in games where at any point they held a lead of 10 points or more (including post-season):

(individual season totals snipped for brevity)

Minnesota Vikings
Total from 1968-79 - 98-4-1, .956 winning percentage

Los Angeles Rams
Total 1968-79 - 98-10-2, .900 winning percentage

Dallas Cowboys
Total from 1968-79: 116-7, .943 winning percentage

So, we're talking about very little to pick from between these three great teams. The Vikings were a little more reliable with a 10-point lead, but the sample sizes of the "blown lead" games are still very small, so the difference between the Vikings' 4 losses, the Cowboys' 7 losses and the Rams' 10 losses could be attributable to any number of things. That's my two cents at least.

These winning percentages seem impressive, but they lack context. It kinda reminds me of the old baseball stat about Nolan Ryan having a record of something like 97-1 when he had a lead going into the eighth inning, but the stat lacked a context of how often all teams win when they have a lead going into the eighth. I would be curious what record the Browns or Eagles or Falcons (or the league as a whole) had over that span when they had a lead of ten or more points. I would speculate that a team who has a ten or more point lead at any point probably wins over 90 percent of the time, regardless of if the team is a good team or not.

[Veeshik_ya]

These winning percentages seem impressive, but they lack context.

Tried saying this earlier but it got it got lost in the ether.

[JohnH19]

These winning percentages seem impressive, but they lack context.

Tried saying this earlier but it got it got lost in the ether.

While it's true that the numbers lack some context because we only know the records of three teams, I'll bet you dollars to donuts that no other team can touch the Vikings' 98-4-1 (.956) record in that particular 12 year span. I mean how close to perfect can you be? Dallas's 116-7 (.943) is also very impressive. I don't agree that the Rams are close to Minnesota and Dallas with their 98-10-2 (.900) record. That's a big difference in winning percentage. The only other team that may be able to compete is Oakland but their defense wasn't as dominant as the aforementioned three during that period.

I get what Rupert is saying about baseball teams winning games in which they lead after seven innings. Even bad teams have what appear to be good records but they don't lead nearly as often as good teams and they do tend to blow more of those leads on a percentage basis. The same thing applies to teams that score first in football, baseball and hockey (basketball probably has a lower percentage because of the scoring frequency). They usually win but a poor team is more likely to blow the lead.

[Evan]

I agree that more information would make this more meaningful. I'll try to work up the Browns, Eagles and Falcons over the same period.

[Evan]

Here is Philadelphia (record in games in which they had a 10-point lead at any point in the game, including post-season):

1968 - 2-0
1969 - 4-1
1970 - 2-1
1971 - 6-1
1972 - 2-0
1973 - 2-2
1974 - 6-1
1975 - 3-1
1976 - 3-1
1977 - 4-1
1978 - 4-2
1979 - 9-0
Total from 1968-79 - 47-11, .810 winning percentage

[Evan]

Here is Oakland:

1968 - 11-0
1969 - 12-0
1970 - 7-1-1
1971 - 8-0-1
1972 - 7-0-1
1973 - 9-0
1974 - 9-0
1975 - 10-1
1976 - 12-0
1977 - 9-0
1978 - 6-2
1979 - 7-0
Total from 1968-79 - 107-4-3, .952 winning percentage

[Bryan]

Here is Philadelphia (record in games in which they had a 10-point lead at any point in the game, including post-season):

1968 - 2-0
1969 - 4-1
1970 - 2-1
1971 - 6-1
1972 - 2-0
1973 - 2-2
1974 - 6-1
1975 - 3-1
1976 - 3-1
1977 - 4-1
1978 - 4-2
1979 - 9-0
Total from 1968-79 - 47-11, .810 winning percentage

Funny that two of their "perfect" seasons were the 2-12 1968 season and 2-11-1 1972 season. I remember there was some hubub about the 1971 Eagles defense being one of the top "up-and-coming" defenses in the NFL with young stars like Rossovich, Bradley, Keyes, Steve Zabel, Richard Harris...that didn't quite pan out.