Does Defense really win championships in the NFL?

[SeahawkFever]

You may have heard the saying: Defense wins championships.

I was curious to see how true that statement really is, so I looked at every Super Bowl since the 1970 merger, and specifically what the results were each time a top five offense faced a top five defense and vice versa.

Here are the results:

1970: Dallas vs Baltimore
Dallas: 10th offense and 4th defense
Baltimore: 6th offense and 7th defense

1971: Dallas vs Miami
Dallas: 1st offense and 7th defense
Miami: 4th offense and 3rd defense

Opposing top fives: Offense beat defense

1972: Washington vs Miami
Washington: 7th offense and 3rd defense
Miami: 1st offense and 1st defense

Opposing top fives: Offense beat defense

1973: Minnesota vs Miami
Minnesota: 9th offense and 2nd defense
Miami: 5th offense and 1st defense

Opposing top fives: Offense beat defense

1974: Minnesota vs Pittsburgh
Minnesota: 5th offense and 3rd defense Pittsburgh: 6th offense and 2nd defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beat offense

1975: Dallas vs Pittsburgh
Dallas: 8th offense and 9th defense
Pittsburgh: 5th offense and 2nd defense

1976: Minnesota vs Oakland
Minnesota: 9th offense and 2nd defense
Oakland: 4th offense and 12th defense

Opposing top fives: Offense beat defense

1977: Dallas vs Denver
Dallas: 2nd offense and 8th defense
Denver: 10th offense and 3rd defense

Opposing top fives: Offense beats defense.

1978: Dallas vs Pittsburgh
Dallas: 1st offense and 3rd defense
Pittsburgh: 5th offense and 1st defense

Opposing top fives: Wash- Offense beats defense, and defense beats offense

1979: Los Angeles vs Pittsburgh
Los Angeles: 15th offense and 11th defense
Pittsburgh: 1st offense and 5th defense

1980: Philadelphia vs Oakland
Philadelphia: 6th offense and 1st defense
Oakland: 7th offense and 10th defense

1981: San Francisco vs Cincinnati
San Francisco: 7th offense and 2nd defense
Cincinnati: 3rd offense and 12th defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

1982: Washington vs Miami
Washington: 12th offense and 1st defense
Miami: 10th offense and 2nd defense

1983: Washington vs Los Angeles
Washington: 1st offense and 11th defense
Los Angeles: 3rd offense and 13th defense

1984: San Francisco vs Miami
San Francisco: 2nd offense and 1st defense
Miami: 1st offense and 7th defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

1985: Chicago vs New England
Chicago: 2nd offense and 1st defense
New England: 10th offense and 6th defense

1986: New York vs Denver
New York: 8th offense and 2nd defense
Denver: 6th offense and 15th defense

1987: Washington vs Denver
Washington: 4th offense and 6th defense
Denver: 4th offense and 7th defense

1988: San Francisco vs Cincinnati
San Francisco: 7th offense and 8th defense
Cincinnati: 1st offense and 16th defense

1989: San Francisco vs Denver
San Francisco: 1st offense and 3rd defense
Denver: 8th offense and 1st defense

Opposing top fives: Offense beats defense

1990: New York vs Buffalo
New York: 15th offense and 1st defense
Buffalo: 1st offense and 6th defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

1991: Washington vs Buffalo
Washington: 1st offense and 2nd defense
Buffalo: 2nd offense and 19th defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

1992: Dallas vs Buffalo
Dallas: 2nd offense and 5th defense
Buffalo: 3rd offense and 14th defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

1993: Dallas vs Buffalo
Dallas: 2nd offense and 2nd defense
Buffalo: 7th offense and 5th defense

Opposing top fives: Offense beats defense

1994: San Francisco vs San Diego
San Francisco: 1st offense and 6th defense
San Diego: 5th offense and 9th defense

1995: Dallas vs Pittsburgh
Dallas: 3rd offense and 3rd defense
Pittsburgh: 5th offense and 9th defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

1996: Green Bay vs New England
Green Bay: 1st offense and 1st defense
New England: 2nd offense and 14th defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

1997: Green Bay vs Denver
Green Bay: 2nd offense and 5th defense
Denver: 1st offense and 6th defense

Opposing top fives: Offense beats defense

1998: Atlanta vs Denver
Atlanta: 4th offense and 4th defense
Denver: 2nd offense and 8th defense

Opposing top fives: Offense beats defense

1999: St. Louis vs Tennessee
St. Louis: 1st offense and 4th defense
Tennessee: 7th offense and 15th defense

2000: New York vs Baltimore
New York: 15th offense and 5th defense
Baltimore: 14th offense and 1st defense

2001: St. Louis vs New England
St. Louis: 1st offense and 7th defense
New England: 6th offense and 6th defense

2002: Tampa Bay vs Oakland
Tampa Bay: 18th offense and 1st defense
Oakland: 2nd offense and 6th defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

2003: Carolina vs New England
Carolina: 15th offense and 10th defense
New England: 12th offense and 1st defense

2004: Philadelphia vs New England
Philadelphia: 8th offense and 2nd defense
New England: 4th offense and 2nd defense

Opposing top fives: Offense beats defense

2005: Seattle vs Pittsburgh
Seattle: 1st offense and 7th defense
Pittsburgh: 9th offense and 3rd defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

2006: Chicago vs Indianapolis
Chicago: 2nd offense and 3rd defense
Indianapolis: 2nd offense and 23rd defense

Opposing top fives: Offense beats defense

2007: New York vs New England
New York: 14th offense and 17th defense
New England: 1st offense and 4th defense

2008: Arizona vs Pittsburgh
Arizona: 3rd offense and 28th defense
Pittsburgh: 20th offense and 1st defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

2009: New Orleans vs Indianapolis
New Orleans: 1st offense and 20th defense
Indianapolis: 7th offense and 8th defense

2010: Green Bay vs Pittsburgh
Green Bay: 10th offense and 2nd defense
Pittsburgh: 12th offense and 1st defense

2011: New York vs New England
New York: 9th offense and 25th defense
New England: 3rd offense and 15th defense

2012: San Francisco vs Baltimore
San Francisco: 11th offense and 2nd defense
Baltimore: 10th offense and 12th defense

2013: Seattle vs Denver
Seattle: 8th offense and 1st defense
Denver: 1st offense and 22nd defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

2014: Seattle vs New England
Seattle: 10th offense and 1st defense
New England: 4th offense and 8th defense

Opposing top fives: Offense beats defense

2015: Carolina vs Denver
Carolina: 1st offense and 6th defense
Denver: 19th offense and 4th defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

2016: Atlanta vs New England
Atlanta: 1st offense and 27th defense
New England: 3rd offense and 1st defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

2017: Philadelphia vs New England
Philadelphia: 3rd offense and 4th defense
New England: 2nd offense and 5th defense

Opposing top fives: Wash- Offense beats defense and defense beats offense

2018: Los Angeles vs New England
Los Angeles: 2nd offense and 20th defense
New England: 4th offense and 7th defense

2019: San Francisco vs Kansas City
San Francisco: 2nd offense and 8th defense
Kansas City: 5th offense and 7th defense

2020: Tampa Bay vs Kansas City
Tampa Bay: 3rd offense and 8th defense
Kansas City: 6th offense and 10th defense

2021: Los Angeles vs Cincinnati
Los Angeles: 7th offense and 15th defense
Cincinnati: 7th offense and 17th defense

2022: Philadelphia vs Kansas City
Philadelphia: 3rd offense and 8th defense
Kansas City: 1st offense and 16th defense

2023: San Francisco vs Kansas City
San Francisco: 3rd offense and 3rd defense
Kansas City: 15th offense and 2nd defense

Opposing top fives: Defense beats offense

2024: Philadelphia vs Kansas City
Philadelphia: 7th offense and 2nd defense
Kansas City: 15th offense and 4th defense

Final tally: 15 defense over 12 offense

So you could say defense does win championships more than offense does; at least going off of the Super Bowl matchups where a top five offense and defense by raw points faced.

However several of those teams were also very good on offense, and in general you could say that the more well rounded team won more often than offense or defense individually did.

What do you all think?

[Brian wolf]

I am still shaking my head that the Bears in 2006 had a #2 ranked offense with Rex Grossman? That defense could really force turnovers.

The worst defenses, the Cardinals in 2008 and the Falcons in 2016, both lost leads in the SB. Kyle Shanahan as OC or HC has lost 10 points or more leads in three SB games.

[SixtiesFan]

They used the phrase "Defense Wins Championships" very often in the 6os and 70s.

[SeahawkFever]

I am still shaking my head that the Bears in 2006 had a #2 ranked offense with Rex Grossman? That defense could really force turnovers.

The worst defenses, the Cardinals in 2008 and the Falcons in 2016, both lost leads in the SB. Kyle Shanahan as OC or HC has lost 10 points or more leads in three SB games.

Admittedly looking just at raw point totals has its issues, but for the sake of simplicity here, I went off of just that.

Looking at the 2006 Bears, ten of their touchdowns were returns or defensive touchdowns. The offensive component of my Score% stat finds the 06 Bears to be the eleventh best offense in the league that season; above the middle but not near the top five.

The 06 Colts who show up as a defense that is below 20th in the regular season are another interesting case here. They didn’t play very well in the regular season but they did in the playoffs. I’ve heard their safety Bob Sanders was a really impactful tackler, and that they were much worse on that end when he couldn’t play.

In 2007 when Sanders stayed almost fully healthy he was a Defensive Player of the Year and Indy had the number one defense.

[SeahawkFever]

They used the phrase "Defense Wins Championships" very often in the 6os and 70s.

Interestingly enough, in the 1970’s, five of the six times that a top five offense by raw points faced a top five defense by raw points; the team with the offense won.

From 1981 on, the defenses won more of these matchups in the Super Bowl (14 for the defense, 7 for the offense).

Could the league getting more situated to the Mel Blount rule have something to do with it?

[CSKreager]

Buddy Ryan's Eagles and the Dome Patrol Saints never won a playoff game. Rex Ryan's Jets never made a Super Bowl. Purple People Eaters went 0-4 on Super Sunday.

Those were well renowned defenses held back by a lack of the offense not coming up big to get a needed score or two.

In an NFLN Top 10 on Football Myths, Warren Sapp- who played on the legendary 02 Bucs- had this to say:

"Defense does not win championships. It will give you a chance and your offense has to win it for you."

[RichardBak]

I'm more inclined to say it's special teams that wins championships--specifically place-kicker and punter.