1978 Team DVOA and Other Detailed Metrics

[SeahawkFever]

The website FTN Fantasy recently released a couple of posts showing the play by play advanced metric DVOA (which I attempted to emulate with Score% Differential) for teams in the 1978 season: https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/1978-team-dv ... ys-rivalry

Here were their results:
1978 Dallas Cowboys 26.9%
1978 Pittsburgh Steelers 25.5%
1978 Los Angeles Rams 23.0%
1978 Denver Broncos 19.1%
1978 San Diego Chargers 16.5%
1978 Miami Dolphins 15.0%
1978 Oakland Raiders 12.0%
1978 New England Patriots 10.6%
1978 New York Jets 2.7%
1978 Cleveland Browns 2.5%
1978 Green Bay Packers 2.4%
1978 Philadelphia Eagles 2.1%
1978 Houston Oilers 1.1%
1978 New Orleans Saints -0.8%
1978 Washington Redskins -2.7%
1978 St. Louis Cardinals -5.3%
1978 Seattle Seahawks -6.5%
1978 Kansas City Chiefs -6.5%
1978 Cincinnati Bengals -7.2%
1978 Detroit Lions -7.2%
1978 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.6%
1978 Chicago Bears -7.8%
1978 Atlanta Falcons -8.1%
1978 New York Giants -10.4%
1978 Minnesota Vikings -14.4%
1978 Buffalo Bills -14.9%
1978 Baltimore Colts -28.9%
1978 San Francisco 49ers -31.5%

Here were my results of Score% for 1978 by comparison:
1978 Dallas Cowboys 0.188878
1978 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.138505
1978 Miami Dolphins 0.107395
1978 San Diego Chargers 0.088299
1978 New England Patriots 0.079955
1978 Denver Broncos 0.048558
1978 Los Angeles Rams 0.038943
1978 Philadelphia Eagles 0.026266
1978 Oakland Raiders 0.021276
1978 New York Jets 0.013488
1978 Houston Oilers 0.012349
1978 Minnesota Vikings 0.007226
1978 Detroit Lions -0.0093
1978 Seattle Seahawks -0.01027
1978 Washington Redskins -0.011
1978 New Orleans Saints -0.02076
1978 Green Bay Packers -0.02176
1978 Cincinnati Bengals -0.02511
1978 Cleveland Browns -0.02632
1978 New York Giants -0.03202
1978 St. Louis Cardinals -0.03226
1978 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.0464
1978 Chicago Bears -0.04916
1978 Kansas City Chiefs -0.05966
1978 Atlanta Falcons -0.06125
1978 Buffalo Bills -0.07531
1978 San Francisco 49ers -0.1345
1978 Baltimore Colts -0.14917

This season my metric would have agreed with theirs on the top two teams, then on five of the next six (they had the Raiders in the top eight, I had Eagles in the top eight).

The biggest discrepancy we have appears to have been the 1978 Vikings who I had as statistically average relative to opposition and 12th out of 28 whereas they had Minnesota being the fourth worst team in the league.

The site also calculated advanced metrics for individual skill position players: https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/1978-player- ... -the-ghost

Due to the play by play nature of their analyses here, I don’t know how much further back they could go than 1978 for Team DVOA.

[JohnTurney]

The website FTN Fantasy recently released a couple of posts showing the play by play advanced metric DVOA (which I attempted to emulate with Score% Differential)

do you run a correlation ratio? WOuld be interesting to see how close the are in terms of rankings

[SeahawkFever]

The website FTN Fantasy recently released a couple of posts showing the play by play advanced metric DVOA (which I attempted to emulate with Score% Differential)

do you run a correlation ratio? WOuld be interesting to see how close the are in terms of rankings

I got a correlation of 90.64% between my formula and theirs when I put both into excel.

The entire range of 1979-2023 was about a 94% correlation as well.

[JohnTurney]

I got a correlation of 90.64% between my formula and theirs when I put both into excel.

The entire range of 1979-2023 was about a 94% correlation as well.

Well, given the inexact nature of stats, that makes a highly correlated data set even more so with the "give and take" of the source data.

Your method is very useful, IMO