LUCKIEST single-season teams?

[JameisBrownston]

The 2024 Chiefs are quickly putting themselves on this list

[readjack]

The 2001 Bears would certainly qualify. Their 13-3 season was a big fluke.

Week 2: They were down 10-3 going into the fourth quarter, and the score was tied at 10 with 6:38 left when the Vikings tried a fake punt that failed. The Bears got the ball on the Minnesota 45, and went down to get a TD to take the lead. The Vikings had a late drive going, and had a second and three on their own 48 when a holding call negated a 17-yard Culpepper connection to TE Byron Chamberlain.

Week 4: Down 13-6, the Cardinals had two drives in Chicago territory short-circuited by a penalty and a fumble (returned 69 yards for a TD by R.W. McQuarters). That turned out to be the difference (the Cardinals had 16 first downs to 13 for Chicago, and they out-gained them 288-253. They also won the turnover battle (3 to 1), but the one fumble was costly, as I just described.

Weeks 7-8: These wins against the 49ers and Browns in OT are the prime example of what a fluke team this 01 Bear team really was.

In Week 7, the 49ers increased their lead to 31-16 on a 40-yard Jose "baby" Cortez FG after a 7+-minute root canal drive (they had a 3rd and 3, but Garcia went deep to TO and overthrew him). The Bears went on to score 15 unanswered points in regulation, and send the game into OT. In the extra frame, the Bears got a fluky INT TD on the first play from S Mike Brown after the ball went up in the air off of TO.

In Week 8, the Browns had a 21-7 lead over the Bears with 32 seconds left. The Shane Matthews Band hit Marty Booker with a TD pass to cut it to seven. Then, after getting an onside kick on a fluky bounce, tied the game on a Hail Mary pass that James Allen caught off a deflection. They also win in OT with another deflected pass returned for a TD by S Mike Brown.

Week 12: They trailed the 0-10 Lions 10-6 before taking a 13-10 lead with 5:37 left on a Leon Johnson TD run. The Lions (led by QB Mike McMahon) drove the ball down to the Bear 21 before they had three incompletions (one on third down to Johnnie Morton was overturned) and a missed Jason Hanson 40-yard FG.

Week 15: The Redskins were trailing 20-13 late in the game and had a first and ten on Chicago's 12 when Tony Banks completed a nine-yard pass to Rod Gardner. The Bears were called for defensive holding, but instead of having a first and ten at the six, they took a second and one at the three. They weren't able to get it in, and Chicago held on.

I knew my '01 Bears would be here

Listen, I don't trust any Bears team that gets swept by the Packers and I don't trust any Packers team that we sweep. So that's the '01 Bears and the '07 Packers down the tubes. Clearly we hit a bunch of breaks in '01 with some improbable wins. I interviewed the great Mike Brown about his two games:

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2021/ ... n-urlacher

So while we weren't quite on the level of a 13-3 division champ with a bye week, we also were an outstanding defense with a rock solid offense. The whole offensive line started all 16 games + the playoff game. Jim Miller and Shane Matthews were pros who had their deficiencies for sure but were players who the team believed in. Fantastic ground game. Some playmakers at WR.

I'm too much of a homer to call us a "fluke." We had good fortune, we made our own luck and we had that intangible, powerful self-belief. But clearly we were not a 13-win team in the traditional sense. More like a really solid 10-win club. Our unprecedented injury slate in 2002 combined with 16 road games shot that season to hell and isolated 2001 even further. So it goes. Fun while it happened!

[conace21]

I know that I am reviving another old thread, but bear with me.

Another 90's Bills team that should be on here is 1993:

Week 2: Dallas was missing Emmitt, but they still could have won this game. Kevin Williams had a key fumble on a punt in the fourth quarter (that led to a go-ahead FG), and Aikman threw an ill-advised pass over the middle with 15 seconds left that was intercepted by Matt Darby (they had the ball at the ten, and should have played for the FG, even though Lin Elliott missed two that day).
Week 5: They get a fluky INT return for a TD by Henry Jones, and Aaron Pierce fumbles a ball out of thin air late in the game in the red zone with the Giants down 17-14 and a chance to send the game into OT at the very least.
Week 15: The Eagles had four fumbles, including one that led to a Steve Christie FG that broke a 7-7 tie in the fourth quarter. Also, they played against Bubby instead of Randall Cunningham, and Matt Bahr missed two FG's, including a 45-yarder at the gun.
Week 16: They got to play against Scott Mitchell and Steve DeBerg instead of Marino. Dolphins were only down by six at halftime, but five turnovers were too much as they played a sloppy game.
Week 17: Thurman Thomas got awarded for a TD when he fumbled it before the ball crossed the plane. Also, Cary Blanchard missed three FG's.

I think you're exaggerating the amount of luck the 1993 Bills received and underestimating how much the Bills contributed to that luck.

Week 2 - Kevin Williams didn't just fumble the ball out of nowhere. The Bills coverage team gang tackled him, and forced the fumble. And while Aikman forced the final throw, it was a great play made by Matt Darby to deflect the ball in the air and intercept it.

Week 5 - The Henry Jones interception came off a high pass bouncing off a receiver's hands, but he made a great run (with some fine blocking by teammates) to take it back 86 yards for a score. The Aaron Pierce fumble didn't come out of thin air, nor was it late in the game. It came off a hard tackle by Darryl Talley early in the third quarter, just outside the 20 yard line. New York did get the ball one final time after Buffalo took a 17-14 lead. The drive ended with a Bruce Smith sack on 4th down.

Week 15 - The Eagles might have been the lucky team that day and they still couldn't pull off the win. They faced a Bills team that was missing three starters (Andre Reed, Jeff Wright, Mark Kelso) and then lost Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas during the game. They faced a Bills team that missed three field goals (to their two.)

And three out of the four Eagles fumbles were forced by Bills players. (The Eagles also fumbled the opening kickoff, unforced, but Steve Christie missed a field goal, so there was no impact on the game.)

[7DnBrnc53]

Week 2 - Kevin Williams didn't just fumble the ball out of nowhere. The Bills coverage team gang tackled him, and forced the fumble. And while Aikman forced the final throw, it was a great play made by Matt Darby to deflect the ball in the air and intercept it.

The Bills made the plays, but they got lucky that the other team wasn't playing smart.

Week 5 - The Henry Jones interception came off a high pass bouncing off a receiver's hands, but he made a great run (with some fine blocking by teammates) to take it back 86 yards for a score. The Aaron Pierce fumble didn't come out of thin air, nor was it late in the game. It came off a hard tackle by Darryl Talley early in the third quarter, just outside the 20 yard line. New York did get the ball one final time after Buffalo took a 17-14 lead. The drive ended with a Bruce Smith sack on 4th down.

Pierce just laid it out on the carpet, though. It wasn't knocked out. Have to take care of the ball. Also, the Jones play was still a fluke. Have to catch the ball there.

Week 15 - The Eagles might have been the lucky team that day and they still couldn't pull off the win. They faced a Bills team that was missing three starters (Andre Reed, Jeff Wright, Mark Kelso) and then lost Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas during the game. They faced a Bills team that missed three field goals (to their two.)

Wright and Kelso weren't that great, especially because Kelso was FS (he should have been SS, with Jones at FS). And, the Bills got lucky again (as I said) because they didn't have to face a superstar, and they faced more bad FG kicking.

[rhickok1109]

Here are things that cannot be blamed on luck:
Interceptions
Fumbles
Dropped passes
Missed kicks
Muffed kicks
Penalties

Here are things that can be blamed on luck:
Coin tosses
A missed kick that is blown just wide at the very last instant by an inexplicable gust of wind (if this happens in a playoff game, it becomes immortalized as the "God's Breath Play")
A perfectly thrown pass heading for a wide open receiver who is about to score the winning TD is attacked in mid-flight by a nearsighted eagle, causing it to fall harmlessly to earth as time expires (if this happens in a playoff game, it becomes immortalized as the "Bird of Pray Play")