HOF prelim, 167 names

[Brian wolf]

Good points ... but lets say half of his forced fumbles were recovered by the defense, thats still 60 forced turnovers. Riley and Lebeau werent near 9 TDs on defense as well. His tackle numbers were better than I thought, and unlike Riley and LeBeau, who played when defenses had more leverage, Tillman took on a larger number of skilled receivers.

[Hail Casares]

Good points ... but lets say half of his forced fumbles were recovered by the defense, thats still 60 forced turnovers. Riley and Lebeau werent near 9 TDs on defense as well. His tackle numbers were better than I thought, and unlike Riley and LeBeau, who played when defenses had more leverage, Tillman took on a larger number of skilled receivers.

IIRC, only 12 resulted in turnovers. It was nowhere near half. So Tillman accounted for something like 50 career turnovers/takeaways. Fellow Bear DB Walt Harris is credited with 47 career takeaways.

Also, if we are making a HOF argument for a guy on the back of the turnovers/takeaways he produced..we need to have the actual number and not assume that 50% of his FF's were recovered by his teammates/himself.

The Riley/LeBeau comps start to fall flat when you take into consideration the era each played in as well.

[JohnTurney]

but lets say half of his forced fumbles were recovered by the defense, thats still 60 forced turnovers.

FF = 44

INTs = 38
FR = 7 on plays that fumble caused by someone else
FR = 25 on plays he forced fumble recovered by Bears, 4 of which was Tillman

70 turnovers total


Note: in double-checking the article -- https://www.charlestillman.org/page/page.aspx?ID=1052 I cam up with one less
24 rather than 25, so my total is 69.

But stathead may have missed one or I missed one... not going to take time to find the missing one --

No dog in the fight about Tillman but on responding to your point...
55-57% recovered by Bears
about 25% recovered by other teams
maybe 16-18 percent went out of bounds

Someone who wants Tillman to get to Hall of Fame could do a study. The article i linked to
has a lot more of a breakdown.

[ChrisBabcock]

Comparing him to Lebeau and Riley is off base. Both of those guys had over 60 career INT's. Tillman had less than 40.

Adjust this for era though and the numbers are very comparable.

[rewing84]

Heres my Modern Semi List

Eric Allen

Jared Allen

Willie Anderson

Tiki Barber

Anquan Boldin

Jahri Evans

Antonio Gates

Eddie George

London Fletcher

Rodney Harrison

Torry Holt

Luke Kuechly

Eli Manning

Steve Smith SR

Joe Staley

Terrell Suggs

Earl Thomas

Adam Vinatieri

Hines Ward

Ricky Watters

Richmond Webb

Kevin Williams

Steve Wisniewski

Darren Woodson

Marshall Yanda

[JameisBrownston]

Oh boy, Eli's up. Now for the moment of truth on whether an alright, big-name 1st overall QB who had a few incredible postseason moments is a HOFer now. Although I guess it's been done before with Namath, so I'm not holding my breath for much prudence. How many years was Namath kept waiting?

[rewing84]

Oh boy, Eli's up. Now for the moment of truth on whether an alright, big-name 1st overall QB who had a few incredible postseason moments is a HOFer now. Although I guess it's been done before with Namath, so I'm not holding my breath for much prudence. How many years was Namath kept waiting?

Namath got in on the 3rd try

[JameisBrownston]

Oh boy, Eli's up. Now for the moment of truth on whether an alright, big-name 1st overall QB who had a few incredible postseason moments is a HOFer now. Although I guess it's been done before with Namath, so I'm not holding my breath for much prudence. How many years was Namath kept waiting?

Namath got in on the 3rd try

If the voters can contain themselves on Eli for that long, I will see that as an absolute win. But not likely imo.

[rewing84]

Exactly if that happens that would be a miracle but highly unlikely

[readjack]

In a normal election with five modern players, there was a tendency to clear the queue of waiting players, but with a top seven list, voters may tend to elect the most worthy, which can help a first ballot case like Kuechly--though Patrick Willis had to wait--but we will see. Like Willis, he only played 8 seasons, but would his argument be stronger than a guard like Evans or receivers Wayne and Holt, who have waited a long time?

It may not even matter. Clark Judge hinted in his TOFTWO article that five will still get elected but it will be interesting voting.

The voting change is a really under-discussed aspect of this year's class. Mathematically the odds of a modern-era class under five just increased a ton. Under the old system, the final five all got voted in because once they reached that stage, they were only going against themselves. Let's say this year under the old system had a final five of Gates, J. Allen, E. Allen, Kuechly, Holt. They each get 80%+ on the yes-no and they all get in.

Under this year's system, let's say this is our final seven: Gates, J. Allen, E. Allen, Kuechly, Holt, Wayne, Woodson. Voters have to pick 5/7. If voters give every finalist between 35 and 38 votes, no one hits 80 percent, and the process moves to tiebreakers until three players reach the top.

Or, let's say Gates is on every ballot, but the WRs cut into each other and the DBs cut into each other. Let's say we end up with this, with the guys who get elected in caps:

50 votes (100%) - GATES
40 votes (80%) - J. ALLEN
40 votes (80%) - KUECHLY
38 votes (76%) - Holt
32 votes (64%) - E. Allen
30 votes (60%) - Wayne
20 votes (40%) - Woodson

In last year's system, Gates, both Allens, Kuechly and Holt all get in as the top 5. In this year's system, only Gates, Jared Allen and Kuechly get in. Or give Holt two more of Wayne's votes and now he gets in, but we're still at four modern inductees instead of five.

These scenarios are not locks by any means, but they're mathematically possible, and avoiding them requires a level of either consensus or coordination that voters have not shown. That's another problem with Eli's candidacy this year: I don't think he has the 40 votes he'll need to get elected, but he could have the right 15-20 votes that would be enough to eliminate a 5th or even 4th inductee. If we end up with a four- or three-man modern class, and multi-time finalists finish 4th or 5th and get pushed back another year, the backlash will be powerful.