Score% Differential - A DVOA Emulator

[SeahawkFever]

And so far here is what the 2020's looks like by my metric:

2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.158223
2020 Baltimore Ravens 0.153369
2020 Buffalo Bills 0.132556
2020 New Orleans Saints 0.126751
2020 Green Bay Packers 0.115434
2020 Kansas City Chiefs 0.100914
2020 Los Angeles Rams 0.094106
2020 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.089563
2020 Miami Dolphins 0.074237
2020 Seattle Seahawks 0.072491
2020 Indianapolis Colts 0.064478
2020 Arizona Cardinals 0.044263
2020 Atlanta Falcons 0.024898
2020 Tennessee Titans 0.012622
2020 San Francisco 49ers 0.009012
2020 New England Patriots -0.00499
2020 Chicago Bears -0.01235
2020 Las Vegas Raiders -0.01427
2020 Washington Redskins -0.02411
2020 Carolina Panthers -0.03292
2020 Cleveland Browns -0.04857
2020 Los Angeles Chargers -0.0595
2020 Dallas Cowboys -0.06528
2020 Minnesota Vikings -0.06683
2020 New York Giants -0.07842
2020 Houston Texans -0.09267
2020 Philadelphia Eagles -0.09968
2020 Denver Broncos -0.10381
2020 Detroit Lions -0.12049
2020 Cincinnati Bengals -0.12162
2020 New York Jets -0.18743
2020 Jacksonville Jaguars -0.20208

2021 Buffalo Bills 0.214619
2021 New England Patriots 0.202757
2021 Kansas City Chiefs 0.146684
2021 Dallas Cowboys 0.134585
2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.110968
2021 Arizona Cardinals 0.100321
2021 Los Angeles Rams 0.100071
2021 Green Bay Packers 0.08769
2021 San Francisco 49ers 0.080227
2021 Cincinnati Bengals 0.075586
2021 New Orleans Saints 0.063922
2021 Philadelphia Eagles 0.057851
2021 Indianapolis Colts 0.056291
2021 Los Angeles Chargers 0.05148
2021 Tennessee Titans 0.041506
2021 Denver Broncos 0.028148
2021 Baltimore Ravens 0.025866
2021 Minnesota Vikings 0.003724
2021 Las Vegas Raiders 0.000844
2021 Cleveland Browns -0.00829
2021 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.05557
2021 Seattle Seahawks -0.06219
2021 Washington Redskins -0.09017
2021 Miami Dolphins -0.09666
2021 Carolina Panthers -0.1134
2021 Atlanta Falcons -0.12638
2021 New York Giants -0.13356
2021 Chicago Bears -0.13598
2021 Detroit Lions -0.20157
2021 New York Jets -0.20521
2021 Jacksonville Jaguars -0.2318
2021 Houston Texans -0.23492

2022 Buffalo Bills 0.164094
2022 San Francisco 49ers 0.158034
2022 Philadelphia Eagles 0.123929
2022 Cincinnati Bengals 0.106473
2022 Dallas Cowboys 0.105223
2022 Kansas City Chiefs 0.100364
2022 Baltimore Ravens 0.056427
2022 Detroit Lions 0.033381
2022 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.025548
2022 Miami Dolphins 0.020037
2022 Seattle Seahawks 0.019584
2022 New England Patriots 0.013756
2022 Green Bay Packers -0.00916
2022 Minnesota Vikings -0.0128
2022 Washington Commanders -0.01348
2022 Pittsburgh Steelers -0.01431
2022 New York Jets -0.01726
2022 New Orleans Saints -0.01743
2022 Los Angeles Chargers -0.01792
2022 New York Giants -0.02009
2022 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -0.02349
2022 Las Vegas Raiders -0.0313
2022 Carolina Panthers -0.03687
2022 Los Angeles Rams -0.04424
2022 Cleveland Browns -0.04688
2022 Tennessee Titans -0.06229
2022 Atlanta Falcons -0.07415
2022 Chicago Bears -0.08765
2022 Denver Broncos -0.09387
2022 Arizona Cardinals -0.10704
2022 Houston Texans -0.11777
2022 Indianapolis Colts -0.12313

2023 Baltimore Ravens 0.217516
2023 San Francisco 49ers 0.179963
2023 Dallas Cowboys 0.150456
2023 Buffalo Bills 0.113934
2023 Kansas City Chiefs 0.099024
2023 Miami Dolphins 0.089731
2023 Cleveland Browns 0.07506
2023 Detroit Lions 0.057825
2023 Los Angeles Rams 0.047735
2023 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.042398
2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.023621
2023 New Orleans Saints 0.023573
2023 Philadelphia Eagles 0.016165
2023 Cincinnati Bengals 0.013551
2023 Green Bay Packers 0.012209
2023 Houston Texans 0.001428
2023 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.001377
2023 Chicago Bears -0.00378
2023 Los Angeles Chargers -0.01043
2023 Minnesota Vikings -0.03255
2023 Seattle Seahawks -0.03586
2023 Las Vegas Raiders -0.04657
2023 Denver Broncos -0.04787
2023 Indianapolis Colts -0.05144
2023 Tennessee Titans -0.07887
2023 Arizona Cardinals -0.0804
2023 New York Jets -0.09217
2023 Atlanta Falcons -0.09824
2023 New England Patriots -0.13356
2023 New York Giants -0.14229
2023 Washington Commanders -0.17043
2023 Carolina Panthers -0.19211

[SeahawkFever]

Feel free to let me know what you think of what I came up with.

Like it. DVOA is useful and to be able to got back at 90% closeness is good. Close enough for rock and roll

Here is what DVOA is missing --- playoffs ... I could be wrong, correct me if I am, that there are no DVOAs done for
playoffs, like --- say the 1974 defensive DVOA for the Steelers...or 2000 Ravens ...

We can do counting stats (points allowed, rushing against, DPR, sacks, INTs and FR,etc) but I would love to know
what are the best offenses and defenses by a playoff team

Maybe min of 2 games ... or something ...

could that be done?


also, question two--that's total DVOA? Can it even be broken to offense and defense? Or maybe I am asking too much

You are correct that DVOA does not include postseasons, and neither does my stat as is. But I could totally see how a stat could be done that could evaluate the playoff performances of teams. A two game minimum could work if its a rate metric.

Both regular season and playoffs are different things in their own ways.

And I do have offenses and defenses individually as well as strengths of schedule and another yards per drive and a first down conversion metric, may create separate threads to share those results year by year.

[JohnTurney]

Both regular season and playoffs are different things in their own ways.

And I do have offenses and defenses individually as well as strengths of schedule and another yards per drive and a first down conversion metric, may create separate threads to share those results year by year.

well don't do special effort to do it right away, when you get to it, you get to it. Agree, NFL playoffs not always same animal.

I know DVOA is regular season, the they add in playoffs, but never give standalone playoffs.

[74_75_78_79_]

Confused by the calculations/formula and all (as I am with most of these kinds of things) but that's fine! Still very intriguing looking at each season.

And wouldn't you know...my personal (and I'm sure very many's) top-two of All Time pre-SB era, quite sensibly, are 1) '41 Bears and 2) '62 Packers!

In third, correct me if wrong, are the '07 Pats. The only three at .3 or above!

Great work, labor-of-love display!


EDIT - my bad! '69 Vikings also among the .3s and higher than '07 Pats. Two of the best teams to NOT win a SB so sensible as well.

'85 Bears and '89 Forty Niners not being as high as you'd think. And definitely the case with '75 Steelers - and I've already given my Historic take on them.

Interesting how the Eagles are #1 in both 1980 & 1981 with the latter having a better mark! Jets the best in '82!

And, WOAH, what a difference between both top-two, 10-1, teams in '41! And between both 11-0 and 10-1 NFLCG-participants in '42 - with 8-2-1 Packers wedged between both, way behind Chi but just barely above Wash!

.3-and-above I would imagine is an 'A-plus'. .25 still an 'A', I'd guess. So when do you think it becomes a 'B', 'C', 'D', and finally 'F'?

[SeahawkFever]

Confused by the calculations/formula and all (as I am with most of these kinds of things) but that's fine! Still very intriguing looking at each season.

And wouldn't you know...my personal (and I'm sure very many's) top-two of All Time pre-SB era, quite sensibly, are 1) '41 Bears and 2) '62 Packers!

In third, correct me if wrong, are the '07 Pats. The only three at .3 or above!

Great work, labor-of-love display!


EDIT - my bad! '69 Vikings also among the .3s and higher than '07 Pats. Two of the best teams to NOT win a SB so sensible as well.

'85 Bears and '89 Forty Niners not being as high as you'd think. And definitely the case with '75 Steelers - and I've already given my Historic take on them.

Interesting how the Eagles are #1 in both 1980 & 1981 with the latter having a better mark! Jets the best in '82!

And, WOAH, what a difference between both top-two, 10-1, teams in '41! And between both 11-0 and 10-1 NFLCG-participants in '42 - with 8-2-1 Packers wedged between both, way behind Chi but just barely above Wash!

.3-and-above I would imagine is an 'A-plus'. .25 still an 'A', I'd guess. So when do you think it becomes a 'B', 'C', 'D', and finally 'F'?

Thanks for looking at the data that my formula came up with.

I tend to view roughly every .05 as a tier personally given the distribution of the results. Calling .3 and up an “A” is incredibly strict;

The best 50 teams by the formula since 1941 (before which point we lack opposing punts) are the following:

1. 1941 Bears
2. 1962 Packers
3. 1969 Vikings
4. 2007 Patriots
5. 1968 Colts
6. 1991 Redskins
7. 1998 Vikings
8. 1946 Browns
9. 1949 Eagles
10. 2019 Ravens
11. 1942 Bears
12. 1985 Bears
13. 1976 Steelers
14. 2007 Colts
15. 1973 Rams
16. 1973 Dolphins
17. 1948 Eagles
18. 1970 Vikings
19. 2004 Patriots
20. 1948 49ers
21. 1961 Oilers
22. 2001 Rams
23. 2021 Bills
24. 1972 Dolphins
25. 1958 Colts
26. 1953 Browns
27. 1968 Chiefs
28. 1975 Steelers
29. 1973 Cowboys
30. 1964 Colts
31. 1947 Browns
32. 1967 Colts
33. 1984 49ers
34. 1992 49ers
35. 2005 Colts
36. 1948 Browns
37. 1996 Packers
38. 1971 Colts
39. 2021 Patriots
40. 1989 49ers
41. 1954 Browns
42. 1967 Raiders
43. 1950 Browns
44. 1993 Cowboys
45. 2010 Patriots
46. 1987 49ers
47. 2009 Patriots
48. 1994 49ers
49. 1982 Jets
50. 1968 Jets

And the worst 50 teams in the NFL by this metric since 1941 are the following:

1. 1991 Colts
2. 1942 Lions
3. 1976 Buccaneers
4. 1972 Eagles
5. 2000 Browns
6. 2000 Cardinals
7. 1990 Patriots
8. 2009 Rams
9. 1954 Redskins
10. 1943 Dodgers
11. 1950 Colts
12. 1972 Patriots
13. 1945 Steelers
14. 1967 Falcons
15. 1966 Falcons
16. 2010 Cardinals
17. 2021 Texans
18. 1948 Yanks
19. 2021 Jaguars
20. 1949 Bulldogs
21. 1987 Falcons
22. 2006 Raiders
23. 1986 Buccaneers
24. 2009 Lions
25. 1976 Seahawks
26. 1944 Card-Pitt Team
27. 2012 Chiefs
28. 1981 Colts
29. 1999 Browns
30. 1960 Cowboys
31. 1968 Falcons
32. 1973 Oilers
33. 1976 Jets
34. 2004 49ers
35. 1970 Patriots
36. 2005 49ers
37. 1992 Patriots
38. 1946 Lions
39. 1974 Falcons
40. 1946 Seahawks
41. 2008 Lions
42. 1943 Cardinals
43. 1961 Redskins
44. 1949 Packers
45. 2008 Rams
46. 1989 Cowboys
47. 1961 Raiders
48. 2021 Jets
49. 1998 Eagles
50. 1971 Bills

Though I would argue that the ranking in the year by the formula is a bit more important than the numeric result of the formula. It has its correlation to DVOA I noted on top, but you may have noticed that a significant portion of the best and worst results were put up by older teams.

Not to defend the bad ones or knock the good ones, but it could be argued that the talent pool in earlier generations of the NFL resulted in the best teams and worst teams separating themselves by larger raw statistical margins than teams that follow them are likely to.

[SeahawkFever]

Confused by the calculations/formula and all (as I am with most of these kinds of things) but that's fine! Still very intriguing looking at each season.

And wouldn't you know...my personal (and I'm sure very many's) top-two of All Time pre-SB era, quite sensibly, are 1) '41 Bears and 2) '62 Packers!

In third, correct me if wrong, are the '07 Pats. The only three at .3 or above!

Great work, labor-of-love display!


EDIT - my bad! '69 Vikings also among the .3s and higher than '07 Pats. Two of the best teams to NOT win a SB so sensible as well.

'85 Bears and '89 Forty Niners not being as high as you'd think. And definitely the case with '75 Steelers - and I've already given my Historic take on them.

Interesting how the Eagles are #1 in both 1980 & 1981 with the latter having a better mark! Jets the best in '82!

And, WOAH, what a difference between both top-two, 10-1, teams in '41! And between both 11-0 and 10-1 NFLCG-participants in '42 - with 8-2-1 Packers wedged between both, way behind Chi but just barely above Wash!

.3-and-above I would imagine is an 'A-plus'. .25 still an 'A', I'd guess. So when do you think it becomes a 'B', 'C', 'D', and finally 'F'?

A few other things that I will also mention:

The great team that is hurt the most by the formula is the 1999 Rams. They were handed one of the easiest schedules a team has ever had the privilege of playing so that results in a large adjustment down, and they scored 11 touchdowns that weren’t offensive; I believe the most ever. Those scores are not in the formula.

The teams that led their year that I expected to do so the least going in:

1957 Browns: The Browns had a rookie Jim Brown who was obviously excellent, but I generally hear that the Browns weren’t at their best between Otto Graham’s retirement and the 64 title. Also, the primary passer of this team threw a fairly low number of passes even for that time arguably.

1966 Cowboys: Given how high up the first Super Bowl champions are considered, I thought the Packers could potentially have been the best by my formula.

1971 Colts: Unitas was 38 I believe, and they had the best season by my metric largely on defense and running game. The defense allowed the fewest first downs of any team in the 1970’s, and is one of three defenses in the Super Bowl era to allow the fewest yards per carry and lowest passer rating in the same season (1991 Eagles and 1995 49ers being the other two; the latter of whom also led its year).

1988 Vikings: I expected San Francisco or Cincinnati to get this one, but the Vikings had a good defense that allowed the lowest passer rating of the 1980’s, and a complimentary passing game that was pretty efficient. The running game appears to have left a lot be desired and while it didn’t work out, I see why the Herschel Walker trade was made by this team.

1990 Giants: Given that it’s typically considered an upset that they won the NFC Championship Game I wasn’t expecting that great of a regular season; same with 2008 given the Super Bowl upset the year prior.

2003 Packers: 2003 was an unusual year whereby everyone won at least four games; was expecting New England, Philly or Carolina. These Packers also are one of the few post-merger leaders where you could say they barely snuck into the playoffs.

2015 Seahawks: From a fan of the team, I wasn’t expecting us to be up there given our seed.

Also, I should note that the stat DVOA which I tried to emulate in the years of 1992-95 found the Cowboys to be on top three times and the Niners once whereas my formula found the Niners on top three times in that range but the Cowboys once, with our formulas interestingly enough agreeing on the 93 Cowboys and 95 Niners.

[74_75_78_79_]

Pretty cool responses!

And THANKS for placing those top, and bottom, 50s!

It's something else how so many champions are just a 'mere' 0.1+! And I did mean that .3 was A-plus (perhaps 98% at very least). Not just a plain A.

Yes, stats aren't "everything" but I still can't help but notice those '85 Bears and '89 Forty Niners being much lower than they actually are!

And '61 Oilers, '76 Steelers, and '94 Forty Niners (three juggernauts who, across timelines, remind me of each other; especially the first and third mentioned due to their specialty being...Offense - and, yes, both finishing the deal)...if not for how each started their respective seasons, sure-enough each would be much higher.

I guess I'm just going to have to simply "surrender" and declare the 1941 Chicago Bears as the Greatest Professional Football Team Ever - for their time! Statistically or NOT!

Maybe the 1975 Steelers are #2, but statistically (and, yes, stats aren't "everything") they just don't have much a 'Rushmore' case in that department! Starting with the '62 Pack (who, in my opinion, lose an actual 'Doc'/DeLorian-school-bus-assisted meeting on-the-field between the two) quite numerous teams, statistically, are better than those may-as-well-say-12-1 SBX Champs - believe it or not.

I'm not a big respecter of Football Outsiders either. However, unlike a lot on this site, I'm quite more open-minded and at least willing to "look" at what they say - and still be intrigued at least a little. But this stuff right here noticeably more attention-grabbing! And with an absolute significant member here already giving it kudos...yeah, enough said!

And those old board games many mention here...that stuff can excite me as well. I forgot what the name of the game was. It was a computer game. Someone in my art class (one of the few who had a personal computer), '86/'87 school year, played an entire season based on current players/stats. Knowing I was a Steeler-fan, he informed me that the ('86!) Steelers actually finished 12-4! I was surprised. I asked, could it be they still having good players from years ago and he bobbed his head. He also said that the Rams/Pats opener was the most exciting game of the season (he was a NE-fan). I forgot how the playoffs turned out, but that stuff excited me, I remember.

A belated Welcome to this site! New member, but yet another educator as well!

[Bryan]

The teams that led their year that I expected to do so the least going in:

1957 Browns: The Browns had a rookie Jim Brown who was obviously excellent, but I generally hear that the Browns weren’t at their best between Otto Graham’s retirement and the 64 title. Also, the primary passer of this team threw a fairly low number of passes even for that time arguably.

1966 Cowboys: Given how high up the first Super Bowl champions are considered, I thought the Packers could potentially have been the best by my formula.

1971 Colts: Unitas was 38 I believe, and they had the best season by my metric largely on defense and running game. The defense allowed the fewest first downs of any team in the 1970’s, and is one of three defenses in the Super Bowl era to allow the fewest yards per carry and lowest passer rating in the same season (1991 Eagles and 1995 49ers being the other two; the latter of whom also led its year).

1988 Vikings: I expected San Francisco or Cincinnati to get this one, but the Vikings had a good defense that allowed the lowest passer rating of the 1980’s, and a complimentary passing game that was pretty efficient. The running game appears to have left a lot be desired and while it didn’t work out, I see why the Herschel Walker trade was made by this team.

1990 Giants: Given that it’s typically considered an upset that they won the NFC Championship Game I wasn’t expecting that great of a regular season; same with 2008 given the Super Bowl upset the year prior.

It seemed like Jim Brown made a lot of mediocre QBs appear to be better than they were. I think Tommy O'Connell had a good year in 1957. Milt Plum held the rating record for decades. Frank Ryan had great stats as well.

The 66 Packers running game was very pedestrian. They really relied on their defense and Starr's postseason performances those last two title years.

The 71 Colts were statistically superior to the 1970 Colts. Although I would have thought the Cowboys would have been the #1 team. Their offense was much better than any other offense in the NFL that year.

The Niners were very flawed in 88, and the Bengals had kind of an average defense. I think the 88 Vikings and Rams were the two best statistical teams that year, and they met in the wildcard round.

The 90 Giants were a stud team for much of the year. Simms was leading the NFL in passing before he got hurt. Teams couldn't really score on NYGs defense. I think the 'upset' factor is because the Niners were so good in 89 and the Giants had Hostetler at QB. But the Giants were a very solid team.

[SeahawkFever]

The teams that led their year that I expected to do so the least going in:

1971 Colts: Unitas was 38 I believe, and they had the best season by my metric largely on defense and running game. The defense allowed the fewest first downs of any team in the 1970’s, and is one of three defenses in the Super Bowl era to allow the fewest yards per carry and lowest passer rating in the same season (1991 Eagles and 1995 49ers being the other two; the latter of whom also led its year).

The 71 Colts were statistically superior to the 1970 Colts. Although I would have thought the Cowboys would have been the #1 team. Their offense was much better than any other offense in the NFL that year.

Just by raw points, the Colts defense ranked second only to Minnesota, and the Cowboys defense ranked seventh. Offensively the Cowboys were the best and the Colts still ranked fifth.

So by raw points ranking, the Colts in 1971 appear to have had the better worse component as opposed to the 1971 Cowboys.

Also, if we go by opposing strengths of schedule, if you look at “SOS” on the team’s page pro football reference, the Cowboys are marked down far more than the Colts are indicating an easier average of opponents by raw points statistically.

So potentially an easier schedule by the numbers, and a lower worse component could have led to Dallas falling behind Baltimore in the regular season.

I should also point out that I don’t intend this to be a be-all, end-all kind of stat, just another way of looking at the regular season statistical performances of the teams of the last eight decades and change.

Another tool in the box for analysis if you will.

[SeahawkFever]

1988 Vikings: I expected San Francisco or Cincinnati to get this one, but the Vikings had a good defense that allowed the lowest passer rating of the 1980’s, and a complimentary passing game that was pretty efficient. The running game appears to have left a lot be desired and while it didn’t work out, I see why the Herschel Walker trade was made by this team.

The Niners were very flawed in 88, and the Bengals had kind of an average defense. I think the 88 Vikings and Rams were the two best statistical teams that year, and they met in the wildcard round.

The 88 49ers played the weakest regular season statistically of the 16 straight regular seasons by my formula (a stretch that sees them lead six times and make the top five every other season besides 88), but flipped a switch and turned it on in the playoffs.

35 years later, last season, the Chiefs would do the same thing. They also weren’t too far off of the 88 Niners in terms of the separation from their peers my statistic gives them.

Both teams also beat the leader of their respective season by score % differential in the playoffs (1988 Vikings and 2023 Ravens).