A question about NFL Recordkeeping

[SeahawkFever]

I asked Eric Goska if he had any numbers that might help you, and I'll post them here. First, if Eric is right about what you might be looking for, he's also correct in what he states about pre-1933 punting stats. Punting had little to do with the opposing team's defense. It was all about gaining an edge in field position. That was why Lewellen was such a dominant player, and the Packers were so successful particularly in the five years he was healthy and able to play nearly 60 minutes a game (1926-30). The reason he punted so often on first, second and third down was to gain 5, 10 yards at a time in the exchange of punts. Then, eventually, the Packers would have the ball deep inside their opponent's territory with a chance to score when a TD and extra point or certainly two scores was enough to win most games, I believe. (That would be an interesting research project for the numbers people. How many games prior to 1933 was one touchdown or one touchdown and an extra point or any number of scores adding up to 10 or 12 (two touchdowns) good enough to win.

Anyway, here was Goska's response when I forwarded him your question:
After a quick read at the forum, I think he is after the number of times a team punted in a season and the number of times that team's opponents punted against them in the same season.

Example: In 1981, GB punted 84 times and its opponents punted 69 times, a difference of 15. My guess is he is trying to come up with a metric that shows that if a team punted fewer times than its opponents that is a positive. The greater the difference, the better.

If true, what he is after does not apply to pro football in the 1920s and maybe for a few years thereafter. A team often punted not because its offense had been stopped or because the opposing defense was stout, it punted to pin an opponent deep and force a turnover on which to capitlize. I have seen a number of examples where GB started to move the ball, picked up a couple of first downs and suddenly punted rather than continue on offense. A whole different ball game back then.

Example: in that Bears game from Sept. 1926, GB punted 9 times in the first quarter not because of what Chicago's defense did (and certainly not because of the ineptness of GB's offense because it remained under wraps), GB punted because its game plan called for forcing the Bears to play from deep within Chicago territory.

All that said, I can calculate how often GB's opponents punted against them for a given year. Let me pick one for which I have complete data and get that to you this weekend.

And here are some numbers he compiled for you. Hope this helps.
I'm comfortable sharing punting stats for and against the Packers from 1935-38.

1935 GB 102 punts, Opponents 113
1936 GB 88 punts, Opponents 103
1937 GB 75, Opponents 97
1938 GB 72, Opponents 80

The number of punts in 1936 by GB (88) differs from the 73 I gave you because in some cases a GB punt occurred, but I could not determine on which down it happened.

All I can say is a huge thank you to Mr. Goska for keeping track of the number of punts for both teams in the Packers teams in those years.

To elaborate, the statistic that I came up with (which I call score percentage differential) is a regular season team performance metric that essentially takes the number of offensive scores per offensive drive on both sides of the ball, and adjusts for schedules.

I calculate it as follows: ((2*(Passing Touchdowns + Rushing Touchdowns))+Field Goals Made) / ((2*(Passing Touchdowns + Rushing Touchdowns))+Field Goals Attempted + Turnovers + Punts + Failed Fourth Down Conversion Attempts)

I calculate the total the team's offense produces, and subtract what the team's defense allows, then determine what the average differential of the team's opponents and make an adjustment up if the schedule is harder than average, or an adjustment down if the schedule is easier than average.

The stat is not without its flaws, but either way I found it interesting to see how it had all the teams it could be ran on stack up to one another. Also, when I calculated out this differential on all NFL teams in the last 83 seasons dating back to 1941 with the data I could find, it resulted in a 94.05% correlation to the now defunct Football Outsiders' DVOA statistic when used on all teams from 1981-2022 (from the data I found on FTN Fantasy.com which has the formula now), and it resulted in an 88.32% correlation to the actual winning percentages of all NFL teams from 1941-2023; a correlation of a percent or so better than DVOA does.

I should note that the teams prior to 1982 have a default zero on both ends for the fourth down conversions because I couldn't find any totals for that for teams before then.

The reason I asked if anyone had punting totals for teams on offense and defense is because being a way that a team's drive can end, it's an important part of the denominator of the formula, and totals aren't listed for teams on defense prior to the 1941 season, and on offense prior to 1939. I was not aware that teams intentionally punted the ball to back their opponents into their end zone in the earliest years of the NFL, thank you for pointing that out to me.

After seeing this post, I did a mock estimate of what the formula might say about the 1936 Green Bay Packers (the team prior to 1941 that intrigued me the most).

Given the totals in the equation that we do have, the punting totals Goska listed, and using estimates for the number of field goal attempts (I assumed the same field goal percentage that the 1938 Packers had, and that their opponents were marginally better than league average in 1938), and an estimate for the schedule adjustment (I took the strength of schedule adjustment from pro football reference's simple rating system and added it in):

The 36 Packers show up as having played a great regular season (20.57; roughly on par with what the formula would give the 1984 49ers for comparison).

The reason the 1936 Packers intrigued me in particular is because they are one of only 16 teams since the first NFL playoff game was played that won a title, had the highest win percentage in the regular season, had the highest score% differential (or simple rating system in the case of the 1936 Packers), and is credited with the most first and second team all pro players in their season by the Associated Press, or a source that gave the designation to two full teams worth of players.

The other 15 teams to accomplish all four of those things and who had to play a playoff game are the following:
1941 Bears
1943 Bears
1946 Browns
1947 Browns
1950 Browns
1952 Lions
1955 Browns
1958 Colts
1962 Packers
1972 Dolphins
1975 Steelers
1985 Bears
1989 49ers
1991 Redskins
and the 2016 Patriots

A few other questions for Mr. Goska I have now:
1. Is it known how many times the Packers and their opponents missed field goals, or attempted a fourth down and were stopped prior to 1941? (I ask the latter out of curiosity because turnovers on downs aren't considered official turnovers in NFL statistics)

2. Is it known roughly when teams started using punting the way people are used to seeing it used now? (i.e. teams punt when they are on a 4th down they don't think they can make)

And 3. Is it known how many fourth downs were attempted and missed by each team in the league, and against each defense for years before 1982?

I am intrigued to hear what he has to say.
Either way, I thank him for his help.

[CliffChristl]

First, Eric wanted me to give his email to you: aegoska@sbcglobal.net Also, Ralph's quote from Johnny Blood about Lewellen's punting was pretty much a universal opinion. Arthur Daley of The New York Times started covering the NFL in the early 1920s and wrote as late as Ray Guy's time that he never saw a better punter than Lewellen.
Anyway, you mentioned about team's punting into the end zone. That was not the objective. If you have access to newspapers.com, what you'll find is a number of stories, especially in 1933 when the hashmark rule was created or changed, about "wasted" downs. Ralph alluded to Lewellen's coffin-corner punting, and I think it's safe to assume that's why it wasn't unusual for him to punt from inside the opponent's 40-yard line. The result could be a ball placed less than five yards from the sideline. And what teams would then do is run a play sideways to get away from the sideline.
Here's a quote from Pop Warner when that rule change basically creating hashmarks was discussed.
"The idea of wasting a down by carrying the ball outside when near the sidelines in order to obtain a more favorable position 15 yards within bounds is ridiculous. The play is uninteresting to watch. It's just too much wasted energy. And it generally results in a slight loss of ground. A better rule, it seems to me, would be to give the offensive team the privilege of moving in 15 yards wherever the ball has been downed anywhere within five yards of the sidelines."
As I previously noted, I have a picture of play starting so close to the sidelines that the linemen to the right of center could barely squeeze into the field of play.
An Army-Navy game was cited as an example for why the rule needed to be changed. Bo McMillan was quoted as saying "Army was tied up six straight times on the sidelines." McMillin said that led to "wasted downs and undesirable pile-ups on the sidelines." This is pure speculation but I wonder if defenses didn't collapse toward the sideline to try and prevent the offense from just running sideways.
Anyway, that's all part of why bylined game stories from the 1920s and early '30s leave the impression that Lewellen dominated most games with his punting on top of his TDs, and key runs, passes, receptions and interceptions. And again without complete game films, I can't prove this, but my sense is that Packers' opponents ran a lot of wasted plays deep inside their own territory. They'd run a play or two sideways and then punt back to the Packers losing big chunks of yardage in the exchanges.

[SeahawkFever]

First, Eric wanted me to give his email to you: aegoska@sbcglobal.net Also, Ralph's quote from Johnny Blood about Lewellen's punting was pretty much a universal opinion. Arthur Daley of The New York Times started covering the NFL in the early 1920s and wrote as late as Ray Guy's time that he never saw a better punter than Lewellen.
Anyway, you mentioned about team's punting into the end zone. That was not the objective. If you have access to newspapers.com, what you'll find is a number of stories, especially in 1933 when the hashmark rule was created or changed, about "wasted" downs. Ralph alluded to Lewellen's coffin-corner punting, and I think it's safe to assume that's why it wasn't unusual for him to punt from inside the opponent's 40-yard line. The result could be a ball placed less than five yards from the sideline. And what teams would then do is run a play sideways to get away from the sideline.
Here's a quote from Pop Warner when that rule change basically creating hashmarks was discussed.
"The idea of wasting a down by carrying the ball outside when near the sidelines in order to obtain a more favorable position 15 yards within bounds is ridiculous. The play is uninteresting to watch. It's just too much wasted energy. And it generally results in a slight loss of ground. A better rule, it seems to me, would be to give the offensive team the privilege of moving in 15 yards wherever the ball has been downed anywhere within five yards of the sidelines."
As I previously noted, I have a picture of play starting so close to the sidelines that the linemen to the right of center could barely squeeze into the field of play.
An Army-Navy game was cited as an example for why the rule needed to be changed. Bo McMillan was quoted as saying "Army was tied up six straight times on the sidelines." McMillin said that led to "wasted downs and undesirable pile-ups on the sidelines." This is pure speculation but I wonder if defenses didn't collapse toward the sideline to try and prevent the offense from just running sideways.
Anyway, that's all part of why bylined game stories from the 1920s and early '30s leave the impression that Lewellen dominated most games with his punting on top of his TDs, and key runs, passes, receptions and interceptions. And again without complete game films, I can't prove this, but my sense is that Packers' opponents ran a lot of wasted plays deep inside their own territory. They'd run a play or two sideways and then punt back to the Packers losing big chunks of yardage in the exchanges.

Thank you for providing me with that email. Will look further into that there.