104th season, Week 18 preview

[racepug]

Wellp, this is it! The last week of the 104th N.F.L. regular season. Some players are being rested, some teams have something tangible to play for, and some teams already know that they have this last game and then they are going to prepare for the off-season.

BAL vs. PIT (Saturday) - the Ravens have locked up the #1 seed (and first round bye that goes along with that) and are resting some players (including starting QB Lamar Jackson) as a result. PIT doesn't have to win today to secure a playoff spot but they'll need less help from other teams around the league if they do. Either way they DO need a little help to get in but thanks to last Sunday's road win over SEA they kept H.C. Mike Tomlin's record of never having had a losing season intact, so there is that.

Indy vs. HOU (Saturday night) - the playoff scenario for each of these teams is remarkably similar: win and they're in (as division champs with help from last-place TEN on Sunday), lose and they're out. A "pre-playoffs playoff game," if you will.

CIN vs. CLE - the Bengals were eliminated from the playoff chase with last week's loss to the A.F.C. West champs, the Kansas City Chiefs, while CLE is locked into the #5 seed in the A.F.C. playoff picture (and are therefore resting some players). Nothing really on the line in this one except state of Ohio bragging rights.

'N'awlins' vs. ATL - similar to Indy vs. HOU from Saturday except that only the Saints have a path to make the playoffs as a wild card team. ATL gets in (as division champs!) with a win AND a win by CAR over T.B. Otherwise, the Falcons' season ends on Sunday.

TEN vs. JAX - LOTS of permutations in this one (well, for JAX, anyway). The simplest one is if the Jaguars beat the last-place Titans. If they do then they'll go into the playoffs as A.F.C. South champions. If they DON'T win on Sunday then they can still make the playoffs, but only with quite a bit of help and only as the #7 seed.

CAR vs. T.B. - Pretty simple: if the Buccaneers win they're in as division champs. If they lose they're out. There are possibilities for them if, somehow, they and CAR tie on Sunday, but w/ a tie the Bucs would then need help to make the playoffs and if they were to make the playoffs under that scenario, it would be as the #7 seed.

DET vs. MIN - the Lions have won the N.F.C. North for the first time, ever (the last time the DET Lions won their division it was called the N.F.C. Central and the league had 4 fewer teams in it than it does now), so for them Sunday's outcomes affect only their seeding for the playoffs (not a huge difference - they'll be either the #2 or the #3 seed in the N.F.C. playoffs this year). MIN, on the other hand, can get in only with a "W" and quite a bit of help from other teams in the league. Right now their chances of getting in, from what I've read, stand at < 5%.

N.E. vs. the NYJ - Nothing really on the line in this one except N.E.'s LONNNG winning streak over the Jets (right now at 15 games) and "if this is Bill Belichick's last game as H.C. of the N.E. Patriots, how is he going to go out?" Other than that these two teams' season is done after Sunday.

G.B. vs. CHI - 'Da Bears' are on a decent little run but they were eliminated from playoff contention with G.B.'s win over MIN last Sunday. The Packers can make the playoffs no matter how they do in their regular season finale but are guaranteed a playoff spot only with a win. And either way they can get in only as a wild card team and as the #6 seed in the N.F.C. playoffs, at best.

the LAC vs. K.C. - Patrick Mahomes won't play in this one as the Chiefs have won their division (for the 8th straight season) and are locked in as the #3 seed in the playoffs. I'm not sure what the Chargers have on the line (if anything). Maybe "auditioning" for a solid head coach.

the NYG vs. PHI - the 'Iggles' are in the playoffs but thanks to their 1 - 4 record over the last 5 games they're no longer in control of their own destiny as far as winning the division goes. They have 3 possibilities: going in as the #2 seed, the #3 seed, or the #5 seed. To go into the playoffs as division champs this year they need to win their last game AND get some help.

WAS vs. DAL - the possibilities for the N.F.C. entry based in TX are the exact same as for their division rivals, the 'Iggles': #2 seed, #3 seed, or #5 seed. The difference being that all the N.F.C. entry based in TX has to do to secure the #2 seed in the playoffs is beat their arch-rivals. No "help" needed. For WAS this might very well be Ron Rivera's last game as H.C. and I'm sure they'd love nothing better than to "play spoiler" and send their hated rivals from TX into the playoffs on a LOSING note.

the LVR vs. DEN - Nothing tangible on the line in this one as both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. DEN appears to be giving up on Russell Wilson and if the Raiders win will that convince owner Mark Davis to keep current interim H.C. Antonio Pierce in the same role? Stay tuned!

ARZ vs. SEA - the Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention for weeks while the Seahawks, thanks to a flaccid performance last Sunday in a (home) loss to PIT, find themselves in the exact same position that they found themselves in Week 18 last season: win and they're in (with help from G.B.'s opponent), lose and they're out (they can also get in with a tie against the Cardinals but that would require them to get much more help than from just 'Da Bears'). There are rumblings of discontent in Seattle about Pete Carroll's future with the team but with him being Executive V.P. of Football Operations in addition to being H.C. my impression is that Pete Carroll won't be "moving on" from SEA until he decides it's time to do so.

SFO vs. the LAR - not a whole lot on the line (aside from the usual rivalry stuff) in this one. The 49ers are the #1 seed in the N.F.C. playoffs this year no matter what happens in this one so they are sitting some starters. Curiously, the Rams are sitting some starters, as well. I guess the possibility of finishing as the #7 seed instead of the #6 seed for the playoffs and trying to end a regular season losing streak to SFO that stretches back to 2018 isn't enough incentive for H.C. Sean McVay to play his full team in this one.

MIA vs. BUF (Sunday night) - With the N.F.L. deciding to make this the last regular season game of the 2023 - 24 season the stakes will be clear at kickoff: MIA is in the playoffs no matter what but with a win they'll go in as division champs and as the #2 seed (with the possibility of hosting the BUF Bills, again, in the first round of the playoffs) while with a loss they will go in as the #6 seed and will visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs. If the Bills win they will go into the playoffs as the #2 seed in the playoffs as A.F.C. East champions while with a tie they will go in as the #6 seed in the playoffs (with that visit to Kansas City in the first round of the playoffs awaiting them). If the Bills lose to MIA on Sunday night they can still get into the playoffs if. . .well, no point in going over all the permutations because by kickoff the Bills will know whether or not they can still make the playoffs even with a loss.

And there you have it! The last weekend of the 2023 - 24 regular season! Six teams are still in contention for two playoff spots in the N.F.C. while five teams are in contention for three playoff spots in the A.F.C. as I type this. So plenty of "drama" before the actual playoffs start in one week.

[single wing]

And in a bizarre twist.


If Pittsburgh and Jacksonville both lose. They will have to wait till the late afternoon Denver vs Las Vegas to determine who gets the 7th seed. Suddenly the meaningless game decides the playoffs. Denver wins Pittsburgh 7th seed. Las Vegas wins Jacksonville the 7th seed.

[Brian wolf]

Its a shame TJ Watt gets hurt before trying to get his 20th sack, which could join his brother in that club. Even if they make the playoffs, he probably wont play next week.

With a playoff on the line, the Texans are playing the worst defense I have seen them play all year. Penalties have killed them in Indy ... can Stroud win the game?

Colts drove down the field, but Minshew threw a curveball that the receiver couldnt catch behind him on 4th down. They should have ran Taylor again but what a year for Minshew and the team.

[racepug]

Its a shame TJ Watt gets hurt before trying to get his 20th sack

I heard that it's a "grade 3 MCL sprain" which doesn't mean much to me as I'm not a doctor but I also heard that it's a "multi-week" injury which means that unless his team makes a deep playoff run his season is probably over.

[Brian wolf]

Its a fine line with playing and sitting players today. I thought LaPorta might not play today for Detroit but he did and is hurt. Hopefully it isnt too bad.

[74_75_78_79_]

Tonight's Bills/Dolphins game is another example as to why I wish a 7th playoff team was never added for 2020. Of course the main preference by me is three divisions per conference with five making it (Wild Card Sunday, all division winners rest/watch), but six teams was more-than tolerable for me.

This showdown tonight seems half-meaningful game, half-non-meaningful. Both still have to play next week, yes starters will be playing for both, but just how important is division title and much better seeding if, again, you're still playing next week? The stakes would be higher and sexier if a BYE was on the line! And though I'm glad I won't have to deal with the stress of Steelers making it or not while watching, it'd sure add some extra drama (showing Steeler-players watching on via-satellite).

[Brian wolf]

Rudolph has to start and the loss of Watt is huge. If Rudolph plays well in the playoff game, I think he should at least compete for the starting job next year.

[Brian wolf]

Watching a healthy Achane for Miami tonight, he reminds me of Reggie Bush coming into the league ...

[racepug]

Tonight's Bills/Dolphins game is another example as to why I wish a 7th playoff team was never added for 2020.

I couldn't be in agreement with you more on this. Personally, I thought 6 playoff teams per conference were too many but with 4 divisions per conference (which I'm perfectly fine with) 6 playoff teams - the four division winners + a couple of W.C. teams - I thought at least made a certain amount of sense. Adding another one just cluttered the field as far as I'm concerned. But, it is what it is and I seriously doubt that the N.F.L. is ever going to go back to a time when there were fewer playoff teams. One thing I wish they WOULD do, though, is change the name of the playoff rounds. To me it made sense to refer to the first round of the playoffs as "Wild Card weekend" back when only W.C. teams were involved in a given weekend's games but that's no longer the case and hasn't been for a LONNNNG time. Same with "Divisional Round." To me that title implies teams from different divisions squaring off against one another but that, too, is no longer necessarily the case (I believe there used to be a rule that disallowed teams from the same division to play one another in the so-called "Divisional Round" but that rule was done away with, I think about 30 years ago, now). Given the current parameters I would call the first playoff weekend simply "the first round" and the second playoff weekend the "conference semifinals" but I know the N.F.L. isn't keen on changing things around once they've become ingrained in the American psyche (such as refusing to move DAL to the N.F.C. South or MIA to the A.F.C. South).

[Brian wolf]

If it werent for crazy turnovers at the darndest times for the Bills, Josh Allen could easily be the MVP ... how does a QB accounting for 44 TDs not make the Pro Bowl?