How much does point differential correlate with W-L records?

[74_75_78_79_]

The '89 Steelers (9-7) were a minus-61 PD. If you take away that notorious opener vs Cleveland, 51-0, and also the 26-16 loss to the Bengals four weeks later, it's actually an even PD despite four other defeats during this campaign being lopsided...

Wk#2 at Cincy, 41-10
Wk#7 at Houston, 27-0
Wk#9 at Denver, 34-7
Wk#10 vs Bears, 20-0

Seems much easier to remember those games than some of the more-than-a-TD victories they posted...(more than you'd think)...

Wk#3 vs Vikings, 27-14
Wk#4 at Detroit, 23-3
Wk#6 at Cleveland, 17-7
Wk#12 at Miami, 34-14
Wk#14 at NYJ, 13-0
Wk#15 vs Patriots, 28-10
Wk#16 at Tampa Bay, 31-22

[GameBeforeTheMoney]

Point differential, for me, is sometimes useful when combined with other stats. Using it requires first looking for outlying blowouts, as others have mentioned. A high point differential combined with a low points allowed, that's a sign a team didn't just win games 14-10 or something like that. A lot of those teams tend to be winning most of their games comfortably in non-shootout fashion. 1973 Dolphins, 1991 Washington are two that come to mind off the top of my head.

If a team with a good record or a poor record has a thin point differential that doesn't necessarily make sense, (say -3 or +5) - the first thing I'm going to look up is whether they had one or more significant injuries at some point during the season that caused a few games to be closer or blowout losses if their opponents had substantial injuries. Maybe someone's out or playing injured.

[Sonny9]

Differentials in turnovers, sacks, and penalty yardage are all meaningful imo.

[Bob Gill]

Differentials in turnovers, sacks, and penalty yardage are all meaningful imo.

Sure, but all of those things should be reflected in the point totals, right?

[Sonny9]

Differentials in turnovers, sacks, and penalty yardage are all meaningful imo.

Sure, but all of those things should be reflected in the point totals, right?

yes but like any stat, including points scored, if you pile up a big difference in a couple games it will skew things. Not that you are saying otherwise. Plus pic sixes are a big determination. Could be a difference in 2 more wins.

[Sonny9]

1976 Browns -20 point differential and they were 9-5. 5 wins by 4 or less. Every loss was by 15 or more
They went on a 5 game winning steak near the end of the season
Opponents
Houston twice 5-9
Tampa Bay 0-14
Philly 4-10
Miami 6-8

[CSKreager]

Joe Bugel's Phoenix Cardinals in '93 finished 7-9 yet put up a +57 PD!!

The exact reverse of that... The 2017 Bills were 9-7 and -57.

The 9-7 Bills of 2004 were +111

And go figure the -57 PD team made the playoffs