Super Bowl 49

[Rupert Patrick]

It's time for my annual Super Bowl analysis and prediction, here goes:

Those who bet on football see this as one of the closest matched Super Bowls ever, as different odds makers have either New England or Seattle favored by the slimmest of margins. Doing a Google search on Super Bowl 49 point spread, I have seen both teams favored by a point by different sites, while others had the game as a straight up bet with no point spread. This is a Super Bowl first, a game listed as a pick ‘em, although for Super Bowl VII various odds makers had either Washington or Miami favored by a point. I’m not a betting man, but I do find betting lines for historical games interesting, because those who made odds and those who bet way back then knew a lot more about the teams of that era than we could possibly know today.

The Patriots and Seahawks last met two years ago in Seattle, with Seattle scoring on a long Russell Wilson TD pass in the final 90 seconds of regulation to defeat the Pats 24-23, so there is no edge there.

The thing that sticks out to me is that the Seahawks led the NFL in fewest points allowed for the third season in a row, and the only other team to duplicate the feat was the 1969-71 Vikings, arguably the best defense of all time. Seattle has had a 36-12 record between 2012 and 2014, as has the Patriots. Over those 48 regular season games, New England has had a 1359-982 points scored/allowed aggregate, which averages out to 28.3-20.5, or a differential of 7.8 points per game. Seattle has scored 1223 points the last three years and allowed 730, an average of 25.5-15.2, which works out to 10.3. Advantage Seattle.
Over the last three regular seasons, New England was 8-5 against teams who would make the postseason during the season in question, while Seattle was 12-4. In the playoffs, New England had a 4-2 mark while Seattle was 6-1. Total those together, New England has been 12-7 (.632) against playoff teams, while Seattle was 18-5 (.783), an edge for the Seahawks.

The main intangible going into this game is the Deflate-gate brouhaha. I’m sure the refs will have all the balls inflated to the exact same weight, with an NFL security official watching over those balls as the game is in progress. If New England should lose this game, football fans will say that the only reason they got this far is that they’ve been deflating the balls all season. However, if New England defeats the defending Super Bowl champ, they will pay fines in the off-season because of the balls, rules will be put in place to have NFL security personnel monitor and spot weigh the balls during games, and Deflate-Gate will be forgotten. Also, the window is quickly closing on the Belichick-Brady era in New England; this could be their final Super Bowl together, and a loss in this game will give them a 3-3 mark in the big game.

Another angle to examine is Super Bowl winners who return the following season to defend their title in the Super Bowl. It has happened 11 times and those teams who won the first time repeated the following season while three failed to repeat – the 1978 Cowboys, 1983 Redskins and 1997 Packers.

In conclusion, in a lot of ways this is a repeat of last year’s matchup, a great offense led by a future first ballot Hall of Famer against a defense that will in time be regarded as the best multi-year defense since the Bears of the mid-80’s. The 2014 Seahawks led the NFL in rushing, and also in rushing TD’s and yards per run. New England finished 18th, 12th and 22nd respectively. Great rushing and great defense (in particular, great pass defense) , is a combination that always wins in the NFL, in every era. Seattle will play ball control, eat up as much of the clock as they can, stick to short passes, while Wilson can throw the bomb if he has to (the Seahawks were 27th in passing yards in 2014 not because Wilson was a bad QB, but because he didn’t have to throw much because of the defense and running game), and Wilson is a great runner for a QB. New England can try to blitz, but Wilson can move around in the pocket, improvise, and run for it if he has to.

On the other hand, Brady cannot control the clock with ball control, as the Patriots rushing leader was Jonas Gray with a total of 412 (this is not a misprint) yards rushing in 2014. I doubt a team playing for a championship has had a rushing leader with so few yards since at least WW2, when they played 10 and 11 game seasons. If Brady had to go to the air, he risks throwing into the outstanding Seattle secondary.

Brady is hoping to join Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only QB’s with four SB rings, and Bill Belichick is hoping to join Chuck Noll with four rings, but I don’t think it is going to happen today. It's going to come down to ball control in the end, and it's going to be a long day for New England. I like Seattle, 27 to 20, although the game won't be as close as the final score indicates.

[Reaser]

Good stuff, Rupert.

I don't find betting lines interesting, myself, since they exist for the purpose of trying to get equal betting on both sides.

Something to add, the Seahawks led the league in 'explosive' plays and defensively also led the league in least amount of 'explosive' plays given up.

Obviously I'm picking Seattle, staying with my preseason pick.

[oldecapecod11]

Reaser » Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:17 pm
"... Obviously I'm picking Seattle, staying with my preseason pick."

Well, Matt, what a surprise!

As for me...
I'm changin' horses - giving up on the Eagles and forgetting the Panthers and jumpin' on the front-runner:
Seattle 35 - 10

[Reaser]

Well, Matt, what a surprise!

As for me...
I'm changin' horses - giving up on the Eagles and forgetting the Panthers and jumpin' on the front-runner:
Seattle 35 - 10

Ha! No kidding, right?

I like your pick (another surprise, ha) ...

[Bob Gill]

Brady is hoping to join Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only QB’s with four SB rings, and Bill Belichick is hoping to join Chuck Noll with four rings, but I don’t think it is going to happen today.

Well, it's DEFINITELY not going to happen today. Sorry, just couldn't resist.

[conace21]

Brady is hoping to join Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only QB’s with four SB rings, and Bill Belichick is hoping to join Chuck Noll with four rings, but I don’t think it is going to happen today.

Well, it's DEFINITELY not going to happen today. Sorry, just couldn't resist.

I like Seattle, too. The Patriots D usually tries to take away whatever the opposing team does best, which in Seattle's case is run the ball. I think they are going to stuff Marshawn; any yards he gets will be pure Beast Mode. NE has a very good secondary, but I think Russell Wilson's legs will be the X factor.

[LJP]

Bears Equipment Manager Tony Medlin is looking aftet the footballs today, so there will be no ball pressure issues for Braty & co.

Just hope the officials keep on top of the in/eligible players though.

Rule 5 Section 3 Article 2 states the following: -

A player who has reported a change in his eligibility status to the Referee is permitted to return to a position indicated by the eligibility status of his number after:
a) a team time out;
b) the end of a quarter;
c) the two-minute warning;
d) a foul;
e) a replay challenge;
f) a touchdown;
g) a completed kick from scrimmage;
h) a change of possession; or
i) if the player has been withdrawn for one legal snap. A player withdrawn for one legal snap may re-enter at a position indicated by the eligibility status of his number, unless he again reports to the Referee that he is assuming a position other than that designated by the eligibility status of his number.

Penalty: If a player fails to notify the Referee of a change in his status when required: Loss of five yards for illegal substitution.

[JohnH19]

Seattle 23 New England 17 but I'll be rooting for the Pats.

[ChrisBabcock]

Seahawks 27, Patriots 23

Instead of actually rooting for either team I will be rooting for an asteroid to land midfield immediately before kickoff so that A) neither team can be crowned champion and B ) I won''t have to witness a Katy Perry halftime show.

As a Bills/49ers fan guess who my 2 LEAST favorite NFL teams are?

[Reaser]

Forgot to leave a score. Seahawks 45, Patriots less than that.

Easley honorary Captain, Hawks put up 45 points, but the HOF voters will still continue to put in players who were merely good for 10+ years instead of putting in actual great players, the greatest players in pro football history. Always a 'good' HOF class when one guy has more total league "Player of the Year" awards (major selectors) than the entire 8-man class combined. Best HOF eligible player in Arizona this weekend and wasn't even being voted on, ha.