Pro Football Outsiders completes 1982 DVOA spotlight.

[Ness]

Never thought they'd be able to get this far back, yet here we are. This was a fabulous read (especially since it was a nutty strike year with only 9 games played and an expanded playoff format without division emphasis), and it just goes to show how crazy the times were that an NFL kicker could win MVP at the time. Over Dan Fouts which would be like Justin Tucker beating out Patrick Mahomes for an MVP award today. And Mark Mosley wasn't even the best kicker that year on further inspection! That's just one of the many stories that are explored in this write up about the 1982 season. Pro Football Outsiders are also going to be releasing the 1981 season next week, which I'm excited for. 1979 is probably the start of my NFL sandbox, but if 1981 is as far as we get then I'll be happy since that is when the 49ers dynasty essentially rockets off. The 1981 spotlight gets released in a week.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa- ... outs-flies

[Bryan]

Thanks for sharing. It's interesting to look at DVOA retrospectively. It's terrible to use as a predictor tool, even within it's own season. DVOA tends to reward teams for having one big game against a 'tough' opponent as opposed to winning 3 games against weaker opponents. I'm not seeing any levels of excellence from the Jets, Giants or Lions in 1982, and those teams get the biggest DVOA write ups. The two teams with the best records, the Redskins and Raiders, have middling DVOAs. If you simply looked at records, you'd have predicted a Redskins-Raiders Super Bowl in 1982. With DVOA, you have a Jets-Giants Super Bowl, which is a difficult prediction considering the Giants didn't even make an expanded postseason.

So, the Giants missed the postseason in 1982, but you'd think they'd be the team to watch in 1983 because they had one of the best DVOA scores. And, they go 3-12-1! The #1 DVOA Jets finish in last place in their division in 1983. Both the Chargers and Bengals take a massive step backward in 1983, and they had elite DVOA scores. And, again, the two teams with little DVOA love in 1982 end up playing for the Super Bowl in 1983...the Redskins & Raiders.

The most frightening aspect of DVOA was the ranking of Richard Todd as the 3rd best QB in the NFL in 1982...what? Was Richard Todd ever any good? He had a nice year in 1982, but he played with the NFL rushing leader (McNeil), was sacked at a high frequency, turned the ball over, offered nothing in the run game, and lost 3 games to David Woodley. You'd think that the purpose of DVOA would be to downgrade Richard Todd's contribution to the overall team's effort. He simply wasn't very good, and his success was due in large part to his supporting cast. Yet DVOA claims the opposite. Again, trying to predict with DVOA is pointless. Todd led the NFL in INTs in 1983 and the organization shipped him to New Orleans (where he was even worse).

The bashing of Moseley is kind of funny. He did set the FG record, he did win several close games with his late FGs, and the Redskins were the best team in the NFL. Football Outsiders grudgingly 'allows' for this factual data, yet claims that Nick Lowery was the better kicker because he missed 2 fewer XPs. Talk about being tone deaf. Yeah, Fouts probably was more deserving, but the previous 3 seasons Fouts had set and re-set the single season passing yardage mark and won his division while not winning the MVP. Fouts again put up big numbers, the Chargers were worse as a team, so I can see why he would have a difficult time getting all the votes.

[Ness]

Thanks for sharing. It's interesting to look at DVOA retrospectively. It's terrible to use as a predictor tool, even within it's own season. DVOA tends to reward teams for having one big game against a 'tough' opponent as opposed to winning 3 games against weaker opponents. I'm not seeing any levels of excellence from the Jets, Giants or Lions in 1982, and those teams get the biggest DVOA write ups. The two teams with the best records, the Redskins and Raiders, have middling DVOAs. If you simply looked at records, you'd have predicted a Redskins-Raiders Super Bowl in 1982. With DVOA, you have a Jets-Giants Super Bowl, which is a difficult prediction considering the Giants didn't even make an expanded postseason.

So, the Giants missed the postseason in 1982, but you'd think they'd be the team to watch in 1983 because they had one of the best DVOA scores. And, they go 3-12-1! The #1 DVOA Jets finish in last place in their division in 1983. Both the Chargers and Bengals take a massive step backward in 1983, and they had elite DVOA scores. And, again, the two teams with little DVOA love in 1982 end up playing for the Super Bowl in 1983...the Redskins & Raiders.

The most frightening aspect of DVOA was the ranking of Richard Todd as the 3rd best QB in the NFL in 1982...what? Was Richard Todd ever any good? He had a nice year in 1982, but he played with the NFL rushing leader (McNeil), was sacked at a high frequency, turned the ball over, offered nothing in the run game, and lost 3 games to David Woodley. You'd think that the purpose of DVOA would be to downgrade Richard Todd's contribution to the overall team's effort. He simply wasn't very good, and his success was due in large part to his supporting cast. Yet DVOA claims the opposite. Again, trying to predict with DVOA is pointless. Todd led the NFL in INTs in 1983 and the organization shipped him to New Orleans (where he was even worse).

The bashing of Moseley is kind of funny. He did set the FG record, he did win several close games with his late FGs, and the Redskins were the best team in the NFL. Football Outsiders grudgingly 'allows' for this factual data, yet claims that Nick Lowery was the better kicker because he missed 2 fewer XPs. Talk about being tone deaf. Yeah, Fouts probably was more deserving, but the previous 3 seasons Fouts had set and re-set the single season passing yardage mark and won his division while not winning the MVP. Fouts again put up big numbers, the Chargers were worse as a team, so I can see why he would have a difficult time getting all the votes.

In regards to Fouts, there is just zero logical argument why Mosley should have won the MVP over him, let alone have that strong of a running in the first place. If it was Marcus Allen or something, ok whatever. But Mosley? He's a kicker, end of story. The voters were on acid, and Fouts should have won in a landslide.

Chargers were stronger on offense that year arguably, and the defense was still terrible, but that's outside of Fouts' control. Depends how you look at it, but if the offense is essentially having to play defense by scoring a boatload of points, that's impressive in it's own right for me. Chargers still won a playoff game, just like the season before so I don't think they were any worse as a squad.

[TanksAndSpartans]

I watched a lot of games in '82. Those results don't make much sense to me - kind of random. Todd was already mentioned, so I looked at RB. Ted Brown was 5th and Riggins, Allen, and Dorsett around 20.

[Bryan]

In regards to Fouts, there is just zero logical argument why Mosley should have won the MVP over him, let alone have that strong of a running in the first place. If it was Marcus Allen or something, ok whatever. But Mosley? He's a kicker, end of story. The voters were on acid, and Fouts should have won in a landslide.

Chargers were stronger on offense that year arguably, and the defense was still terrible, but that's outside of Fouts' control. Depends how you look at it, but if the offense is essentially having to play defense by scoring a boatload of points, that's impressive in it's own right for me. Chargers still won a playoff game, just like the season before so I don't think they were any worse as a squad.

I agree that Mosley winning the MVP is probably something that will never happen again, but I think it illustrates the weirdness of 1982 and the lunacy of DVOA. The MVP award is like a work of art...there is a great deal of subjectivity in the judgement. Steve McNair was a co-MVP one year despite being incredibly average...and even worse, he shared the MVP with another QB (Manning) who, in a side-by-side comparison, was vastly superior. But McNair was being lauded as a "warrior" who was a great leader, even if there wasn't much tangible evidence to support this. I loved McNair when he played, and I did think he was a clutch player, but him winning the MVP would be like Billy Kilmer winning the MVP. I remember another year Donovan McNabb was getting MVP support despite him being like the 6th best QB in the NFC. The narrative was "McNabb might not make the Pro Bowl, but he could win the MVP because of his overall leadership", which was just another way of saying "we can't comprehend why McNabb is so much worse than Jeff Garcia". The MVP is it's own type of crazy.

But that doesn't let DVOA off the hook. It professes to be a deeper dive into understanding statistics, but it has always been the opposite. Just look at this 1982 write-up...the conclusions drawn are just Ivy League nonsense. I would hope that a deeper dive into statistics/DVOA would illustrate that Mark Mosley had a more impactful season than Nick Lowery in 1982, or that Richard Todd really wasn't the 3rd best QB in 1982...but this is what DVOA is attempting to tell us. I don't see any added value with this type of 'analysis'.

In layman's terms, the Redskins were the best team in the NFL in 1982, they didn't have any established stars who had big years, and Mosley was 'arguably' their most valuable player in the regular season. Best player on best team...typical MVP stuff. Fouts' 1982 season was old hat. The Chargers had won their division the last 3 years...they didn't in 1982. The Chargers had made the conference championship the last two years...they didn't in 1982. The Chargers defeated the Dolphins in the playoffs in 1981...they didn't in 1982 (and were obliterated by David Woodley). In a sense, Fouts' previous success hurt him in 1982, which is unfair. But IMO it follows MVP logic. I'm not disagreeing with you when you say the MVP voters were on acid, I just think that more often than not the MVP voters are on acid (not just in 1982).

[Ness]

In regards to Fouts, there is just zero logical argument why Mosley should have won the MVP over him, let alone have that strong of a running in the first place. If it was Marcus Allen or something, ok whatever. But Mosley? He's a kicker, end of story. The voters were on acid, and Fouts should have won in a landslide.

Chargers were stronger on offense that year arguably, and the defense was still terrible, but that's outside of Fouts' control. Depends how you look at it, but if the offense is essentially having to play defense by scoring a boatload of points, that's impressive in it's own right for me. Chargers still won a playoff game, just like the season before so I don't think they were any worse as a squad.

I agree that Mosley winning the MVP is probably something that will never happen again, but I think it illustrates the weirdness of 1982 and the lunacy of DVOA. The MVP award is like a work of art...there is a great deal of subjectivity in the judgement. Steve McNair was a co-MVP one year despite being incredibly average...and even worse, he shared the MVP with another QB (Manning) who, in a side-by-side comparison, was vastly superior. But McNair was being lauded as a "warrior" who was a great leader, even if there wasn't much tangible evidence to support this. I loved McNair when he played, and I did think he was a clutch player, but him winning the MVP would be like Billy Kilmer winning the MVP. I remember another year Donovan McNabb was getting MVP support despite him being like the 6th best QB in the NFC. The narrative was "McNabb might not make the Pro Bowl, but he could win the MVP because of his overall leadership", which was just another way of saying "we can't comprehend why McNabb is so much worse than Jeff Garcia". The MVP is it's own type of crazy.

But that doesn't let DVOA off the hook. It professes to be a deeper dive into understanding statistics, but it has always been the opposite. Just look at this 1982 write-up...the conclusions drawn are just Ivy League nonsense. I would hope that a deeper dive into statistics/DVOA would illustrate that Mark Mosley had a more impactful season than Nick Lowery in 1982, or that Richard Todd really wasn't the 3rd best QB in 1982...but this is what DVOA is attempting to tell us. I don't see any added value with this type of 'analysis'.

In layman's terms, the Redskins were the best team in the NFL in 1982, they didn't have any established stars who had big years, and Mosley was 'arguably' their most valuable player in the regular season. Best player on best team...typical MVP stuff. Fouts' 1982 season was old hat. The Chargers had won their division the last 3 years...they didn't in 1982. The Chargers had made the conference championship the last two years...they didn't in 1982. The Chargers defeated the Dolphins in the playoffs in 1981...they didn't in 1982 (and were obliterated by David Woodley). In a sense, Fouts' previous success hurt him in 1982, which is unfair. But IMO it follows MVP logic. I'm not disagreeing with you when you say the MVP voters were on acid, I just think that more often than not the MVP voters are on acid (not just in 1982).

To wrap up my thoughts on Fouts, even with all of the caveats you listed as to why thinking may bogged him down in those nine games, it was a regular season honor which Fouts should have won in a landslide. Sometimes getting an MVP is about having a story to tell as much as actually seeming like what the MVP is supposed to denote. But even that has a limit, and Moseley shouldn't have sniffed MVP consideration regardless who was in the running just like any kicker shouldn't have in any season. But one doesn't need DVOA to tell anyone else that, which isn't what my gripe was about in regards to Moseley winning the award. It's just something in 1982 that stands out, and was talked about in the write-up.

BTW sidebar, I can't subscribe to the interpretation that Steve McNair was "incredibly average" in 2003. That just wasn't true. Even in 14 starts he was clearly one of the best quarterbacks in the league that year, top three I'd say. I can wrap my head around the notion that Manning alone deserved MVP that year, and McNair probably did get his profile boosted with some signature moments like the last second win against Houston or some nutty throws against Carolina in a blowout. Also playing remarkable through pain/injury. McNair also had zero help in the run game that year. But even that entire MVP conclusion made way more sense than what happened in 1982 with Mosley.

[Brian wolf]

If anyone deserved MVP in 1982, it should have been WR Wes Chandler, who was unstoppable that year ... Other than Moseley, Marcus Allen was the only non-QB getting votes, which could have hurt Fout's chances, though Fouts did get OPOY over his teammate Chandler ...

[Gary Najman]

If anyone deserved MVP in 1982, it should have been WR Wes Chandler, who was unstoppable that year ... Other than Moseley, Marcus Allen was the only non-QB getting votes, which could have hurt Fout's chances, though Fouts did get OPOY over his teammate Chandler ...

I thought at the time that Ken Anderson (with his 70% pass completions) should have been considered for the 1982 MVP (He won it in 1981).

[Gary Najman]

I remember that the Giants (due to the strike) didn't play any games with the Cowboys (I believe that in 1982 Dallas would have won both contests, with Scott Brunner playing quarterback for the Giants). Other canceled games were against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland, the Cardinals and the Rams. In a full 16-season I don't think the Giants would have made the playoffs that year.

Thanks for sharing. It's interesting to look at DVOA retrospectively. It's terrible to use as a predictor tool, even within it's own season. DVOA tends to reward teams for having one big game against a 'tough' opponent as opposed to winning 3 games against weaker opponents. I'm not seeing any levels of excellence from the Jets, Giants or Lions in 1982, and those teams get the biggest DVOA write ups. The two teams with the best records, the Redskins and Raiders, have middling DVOAs. If you simply looked at records, you'd have predicted a Redskins-Raiders Super Bowl in 1982. With DVOA, you have a Jets-Giants Super Bowl, which is a difficult prediction considering the Giants didn't even make an expanded postseason.

So, the Giants missed the postseason in 1982, but you'd think they'd be the team to watch in 1983 because they had one of the best DVOA scores. And, they go 3-12-1! The #1 DVOA Jets finish in last place in their division in 1983. Both the Chargers and Bengals take a massive step backward in 1983, and they had elite DVOA scores. And, again, the two teams with little DVOA love in 1982 end up playing for the Super Bowl in 1983...the Redskins & Raiders.

The most frightening aspect of DVOA was the ranking of Richard Todd as the 3rd best QB in the NFL in 1982...what? Was Richard Todd ever any good? He had a nice year in 1982, but he played with the NFL rushing leader (McNeil), was sacked at a high frequency, turned the ball over, offered nothing in the run game, and lost 3 games to David Woodley. You'd think that the purpose of DVOA would be to downgrade Richard Todd's contribution to the overall team's effort. He simply wasn't very good, and his success was due in large part to his supporting cast. Yet DVOA claims the opposite. Again, trying to predict with DVOA is pointless. Todd led the NFL in INTs in 1983 and the organization shipped him to New Orleans (where he was even worse).

The bashing of Moseley is kind of funny. He did set the FG record, he did win several close games with his late FGs, and the Redskins were the best team in the NFL. Football Outsiders grudgingly 'allows' for this factual data, yet claims that Nick Lowery was the better kicker because he missed 2 fewer XPs. Talk about being tone deaf. Yeah, Fouts probably was more deserving, but the previous 3 seasons Fouts had set and re-set the single season passing yardage mark and won his division while not winning the MVP. Fouts again put up big numbers, the Chargers were worse as a team, so I can see why he would have a difficult time getting all the votes.

[Bryan]

[BTW sidebar, I can't subscribe to the interpretation that Steve McNair was "incredibly average" in 2003. That just wasn't true. Even in 14 starts he was clearly one of the best quarterbacks in the league that year, top three I'd say. I can wrap my head around the notion that Manning alone deserved MVP that year, and McNair probably did get his profile boosted with some signature moments like the last second win against Houston or some nutty throws against Carolina in a blowout. Also playing remarkable through pain/injury. McNair also had zero help in the run game that year. But even that entire MVP conclusion made way more sense than what happened in 1982 with Mosley.

I went back and looked at McNair's season...he actually led the NFL in passing efficiency so the "incredibly average" was the incorrect term. The weird part is that, while McNair had a career year throwing the ball (a Rate+ of 126 sandwiched around seasons of 107 and 91....wow), he only had 138 yards rushing. I assumed he would have some monster rushing yards or TDs to offset his lack of offensive production. Peyton Manning threw for over 1000+ yards than McNair. How many times has a QB won the MVP while finishing 15th in passing yards and tied for 7th in passing TDs? That's like Kirk Gibson MVP numbers, not Joe DiMaggio MVP numbers.

But you are right, McNair did have a great season.