NFL "what-if" scenarios thread

[JameisLoseston]

What if your favorite player had never suffered that catastrophic injury? What if an almost-trade or free-agent signing that fell through had actually happened? What if Herschel Walker had never been traded? Here's the place to think about exactly how the world of football would be different as a result of these possibilities. Start with the initial scenario (e.g. Gale Sayers stays healthy), work out what would change due to that event, and watch how long the causal chains carry on. How far back can you start out, and produce a chain of causes and effects that still has butterfly effects in the current NFL, for example with players being drafted by different teams due to different positional needs?

For example, let's say one of my top 5 favorite players, Spec Sanders, had never had his career-ending injury. Given his Running QB God playstyle, the following may be a stretch, but let's say he lasts 10 years, through 1955, same as Otto Graham. He puts up a couple more of those 1947 like seasons in the AAFC, some slightly lesser ones (~1000-1000, 20-25 total TD) in his first few NFL years, then tails off, retiring as the undisputed GOAT. The Yankees, of course, would continue to be good with him, along with the 49ers and below the Browns. Spec's health is probably independent of the circumstances of the AAFC merger, so that happens in 1950 as planned. Those other two teams got adopted into the NFL; do the Yankees get adopted if Spec is on them? Not exactly, because, well, the NFL has the New York Yanks. So the Yankees merge into the Yanks as they did in real life, and Spec joins the Yanks... as he did in real life... as a safety. But here, he joins them as the Running QB God we know and love. In real life the Yanks became the roving, miserable Dallas/Hershey, PA Texans two years later, and then the much less miserable Baltimore Colts. With Spec, however, the Yanks likely become a strong NFL team, and a winning New York team in pinstripes won't exactly starve for fans. So we almost certainly never get the Colts, and the Yanks stay in the league. Sanders retires in 1955, and you could argue they'd still move to Baltimore a couple years later, but I'm gonna say that ship has sailed. I wanted to find a Johnny Unitas tie-in here, but it so happens Unitas was drafted by the Steelers in the 9th round in 1955 and cut in camp. So the Yanks are probably waiting around to pick him up just as the Colts were, and everything thereafter continues as normal; Peyton Manning becomes a Yank, and yet another New York team in pinstripes becomes way too cool for school. Overall, we have a different team in the league, but otherwise, everything else stays surprisingly normal.

As for whether Spec's dominant revival of the single-wing tailback would have prevented the position and offense from dying? Who knows. Maybe teams like the Bobby Douglass Bears would try a Sanders-style offense, or maybe they'd just see that he was something different, and it would disappear all the same.

[7DnBrnc53]

Since you mentioned Unitas, here 's a what if: I think that someone recommended him to Paul Brown, but he passed. What if he didn't (in your below scenario)? Cleveland could have fielded a scary dynasty with him and Jim Brown.

[JohnH19]

I’m convinced that my Vikings would have won one or both of SBs 5 and 6 if they wouldn’t have let Joe Kapp walk.

[BD Sullivan]

Since you mentioned Unitas, here 's a what if: I think that someone recommended him to Paul Brown, but he passed. What if he didn't (in your below scenario)? Cleveland could have fielded a scary dynasty with him and Jim Brown.

In that same vein, the story of how the Browns had to "settle" for Jim Brown--instead of Len Dawson, I believe--has always been fodder for What-if discussions. Ironically, Dawson did end up playing for the Browns, but was too raw at the time to succeed.

[7DnBrnc53]

I’m convinced that my Vikings would have won one or both of SBs 5 and 6 if they wouldn’t have let Joe Kapp walk.

They probably win both of them. Heck, there are old-school Viking fans that think that they win SB 4 if they play the Raiders instead of KC.

Also, if they win SB VI, what becomes of Dallas? If they don't win in 71, I don't see them getting one until 1977. In 72 and 73, they had no business being in the NFC Title Game (72 49ers collapse, 73 Rams choke and bad playoff system). In 74, they missed the playoffs. Without the brass ring in 71, do the Cowboys think about firing Landry after the 74 season (if they still miss the playoffs)?

[JameisLoseston]

I’m convinced that my Vikings would have won one or both of SBs 5 and 6 if they wouldn’t have let Joe Kapp walk.

Let's see about that. First of all, they certainly weren't beating the 72 Dolphins with Joe Kapp at QB. 71 is worth a deeper dive. Holding Joe Kapp would have caused the Vikings to pass up on, well, reacquiring Fran Tarkenton, who irl was better than Joe Kapp. Fran came from the Giants, who irl picked up Norm Snead, who had a Pro Bowl year before imploding, to replace Tarkenton. Let's say Tarkenton just stays with the Giants. Snead, the previous year, was a backup for... the Vikings! He was part of a miserable rotation of Snead, Gary Cuozzo, and Bob Lee. They somehow went 11-3 with this shitshow, they were a great team. If Kapp is still in the picture... well, irl he finished up with a horrible season for the Pats and then was out of the league, so there's no telling he wouldn't have been benched for Snead or someone else. But if his production is more like his last year with Minnesota, then yes, it certainly improves their odds. The opportunity cost of denying the team Tarkenton a year later, however, is very high. Meanwhile, there is no Phil Simms tie-in to be found over in New York, because Tarkenton retired in 1978, and Simms was drafted in 1979. So they draft him anyways, and any continuing effects end there.

[Bob Gill]

What does "irl" mean? I've never seen that one before.

[JameisLoseston]

Since you mentioned Unitas, here 's a what if: I think that someone recommended him to Paul Brown, but he passed. What if he didn't (in your below scenario)? Cleveland could have fielded a scary dynasty with him and Jim Brown.

In that same vein, the story of how the Browns had to "settle" for Jim Brown--instead of Len Dawson, I believe--has always been fodder for What-if discussions. Ironically, Dawson did end up playing for the Browns, but was too raw at the time to succeed.

The Steelers certainly needed a RB in this draft. They trotted out a terrible 3.3 ypc rushing attack in 1956, and followed it with an even worse 3.0 in 1957. Meanwhile, they had a mediocre Ted Marchibroda at QB in 56, and a perfectly serviceable Earl Morrall in 57. I'd say they needed the RB more, so it's reasonable to say they could've taken Brown. As is the case in these situations, though, there aren't really any lasting effects, because, well, Brown's presence in Pittsburgh doesn't exactly displace anyone notable at RB. Dawson, as we noted, was a huge bust with Pittsburgh and did end up in Cleveland, and was still useless until he went to the AFL and somehow learned how to throw the football. Having Unitas in this scenario, however, the Browns may not want Dawson. If they still do, I don't think anything changes for him; Unitas remains the starter, and as Dawson is just one of the busts planted in this draft class, he probably ends up in KC anyways. Same goes for if they continue starting Milt Plum. If they don't want Dawson, let's see who's next up. The 7th pick is the Eagles; having fielded one of the worst passing games I've ever seen in 1956, they most definitely would have taken Dawson, and probably started him right away. This definitely could have changed his developmental trajectory; even though he was a bust, the HOF talent was obviously in there somewhere, and on an Eagles team with Tommy McDonald at receiver, it may have been realized much sooner. It also means they wouldn't have drafted Sonny Jurgensen, who they took in the 4th in that draft. That late in the draft, however, there's not much point speculating where he ends up. But a lot of things would be different, maybe even still today. If Dawson excelled with the Eagles, the AFL could have even had a much harder time establishing itself as a competitor. Jurgensen ending up in KC would be an entertaining reversal.

Unitas, meanwhile, displaces several excellent seasons from Milt Plum and Frank Ryan, who combined to be almost as good as Unitas over that time, arguably better. They combined for 200-127 TD/INT with the Browns, while Unitas had 243-179 over this time. So whether they have Jim Brown or not, I don't think Unitas over these two guys gives them all that much better a chance of winning more championships than they did. The Packers almost certainly remain the dominant team of the 60s, as surprising as it is to say, and if Brown is in Pittsburgh, the Browns are just a mediocre team.

irl = in real life.

[Terry Baldshaw]

As a Steeler fan I have two what ifs:

1) What if the Steelers had kept Johnny Unitas and drafted Jim Brown instead of Gary Glick.

2) What if four of their five running backs and their placekicker had not been injured against Oakland in the 1976 AFC championship game.

[JohnH19]

I’m convinced that my Vikings would have won one or both of SBs 5 and 6 if they wouldn’t have let Joe Kapp walk.

Let's see about that. First of all, they certainly weren't beating the 72 Dolphins with Joe Kapp at QB. 71 is worth a deeper dive. Holding Joe Kapp would have caused the Vikings to pass up on, well, reacquiring Fran Tarkenton, who irl was better than Joe Kapp. Fran came from the Giants, who irl picked up Norm Snead, who had a Pro Bowl year before imploding, to replace Tarkenton. Let's say Tarkenton just stays with the Giants. Snead, the previous year, was a backup for... the Vikings! He was part of a miserable rotation of Snead, Gary Cuozzo, and Bob Lee. They somehow went 11-3 with this shitshow, they were a great team. If Kapp is still in the picture... well, irl he finished up with a horrible season for the Pats and then was out of the league, so there's no telling he wouldn't have been benched for Snead or someone else. But if his production is more like his last year with Minnesota, then yes, it certainly improves their odds. The opportunity cost of denying the team Tarkenton a year later, however, is very high. Meanwhile, there is no Phil Simms tie-in to be found over in New York, because Tarkenton retired in 1978, and Simms was drafted in 1979. So they draft him anyways, and any continuing effects end there.

SBs 5 and 6 were played after the 70 and 71 seasons so the unbeaten Dolphins don’t figure into the conversation. My comment also has nothing to do with what wound up happening with Sir Francis. I simply believe that the Vikings would have won in one or both of those seasons with a still relatively young Kapp at QB.