Sebastian Janikowski retires....2000 NFL draft analysis

[Bryan]

The Raiders were subjected to much ridicule when they used a 1st round/17th overall pick on Sebastian Janikowski in the 2000 NFL draft. But now that Janikowski's career is over (as well as the other draftees from the 2000 draft), we can see 'somewhat' empirically if the Raiders deserved to be blasted by the 'draft experts'.

PFR has a simple rating called "DrAV", which is the approximate total value the drafting team receives from it's draft pick. Janikowski spent nearly his entire career with the Raiders, and had a DrAV of 40. Thomas Jones had a nice NFL career, but didn't do much for the Cards who drafted him, so his DrAV is only 7.

If we look at Janikowski going 17th overall, and compare him to the rest of the 1st round players who were taken after him, we see only two players who ended up with significantly higher DrAV's...Keith Bulluck (30th to Titans) and Shaun Alexander (19th to Seahawks) had 70 DrAVs. Chad Pennington (18th to Jets) had a 41 to Janikowski's 40. What stands out to me is how much better Janikowski is than the majority of busts taken after him...Chris McIntosh 7, Trung Candidate 6, R Jay Soward 2 (may have had the worst hands of any WR I've ever seen), so many bad players.

I guess my point is that grading drafts right after they happen is nonsense, based on 'conventional wisdom' that is baseless in itself.

[sheajets]

The way Pennington ended up always upsets me. The guy had a brilliant football mind and was going to be a very good QB going by what I saw in 2002. His arm wasn't great, but it was average. Once he had that rotator cuff it was over. Sure he could still play and played very well at times but it was never going to be what it could've been. The work ethic, the intelligence, the personality, leadership. It's exactly what you wanted out of your QB. But when it came to arm strength and luck...just came up short

[7DnBrnc53]

The Raiders were subjected to much ridicule when they used a 1st round/17th overall pick on Sebastian Janikowski in the 2000 NFL draft. But now that Janikowski's career is over (as well as the other draftees from the 2000 draft), we can see 'somewhat' empirically if the Raiders deserved to be blasted by the 'draft experts'.

PFR has a simple rating called "DrAV", which is the approximate total value the drafting team receives from it's draft pick. Janikowski spent nearly his entire career with the Raiders, and had a DrAV of 40. Thomas Jones had a nice NFL career, but didn't do much for the Cards who drafted him, so his DrAV is only 7.

If we look at Janikowski going 17th overall, and compare him to the rest of the 1st round players who were taken after him, we see only two players who ended up with significantly higher DrAV's...Keith Bulluck (30th to Titans) and Shaun Alexander (19th to Seahawks) had 70 DrAVs. Chad Pennington (18th to Jets) had a 41 to Janikowski's 40. What stands out to me is how much better Janikowski is than the majority of busts taken after him...Chris McIntosh 7, Trung Candidate 6, R Jay Soward 2 (may have had the worst hands of any WR I've ever seen), so many bad players.

I guess my point is that grading drafts right after they happen is nonsense, based on 'conventional wisdom' that is baseless in itself.

Good job, especially the last sentence.

Trung Canidate reminds me of how bad the Rams were at drafting in the early-2000's. They took Canidate over OT Marvel Smith in 2000, Damione Lewis over Marcus Stroud or Steve Hutchinson and Ryan Pickett over Kendrell Bell in 2001 (someone who did a review right after that draft asked "What's a Ryan Pickett?"), and Robert Thomas over Clinton Portis in 2002. That was a big factor in their decline, as was the SB 36 loss to New England. Those days set the franchise on a course to return to LA where they belong.

[Rupert Patrick]

The Raiders were subjected to much ridicule when they used a 1st round/17th overall pick on Sebastian Janikowski in the 2000 NFL draft. But now that Janikowski's career is over (as well as the other draftees from the 2000 draft), we can see 'somewhat' empirically if the Raiders deserved to be blasted by the 'draft experts'.

PFR has a simple rating called "DrAV", which is the approximate total value the drafting team receives from it's draft pick. Janikowski spent nearly his entire career with the Raiders, and had a DrAV of 40. Thomas Jones had a nice NFL career, but didn't do much for the Cards who drafted him, so his DrAV is only 7.

If we look at Janikowski going 17th overall, and compare him to the rest of the 1st round players who were taken after him, we see only two players who ended up with significantly higher DrAV's...Keith Bulluck (30th to Titans) and Shaun Alexander (19th to Seahawks) had 70 DrAVs. Chad Pennington (18th to Jets) had a 41 to Janikowski's 40. What stands out to me is how much better Janikowski is than the majority of busts taken after him...Chris McIntosh 7, Trung Candidate 6, R Jay Soward 2 (may have had the worst hands of any WR I've ever seen), so many bad players.

I guess my point is that grading drafts right after they happen is nonsense, based on 'conventional wisdom' that is baseless in itself.

First of all, wasn't Tom Brady also drafted in 2000?

As far as drafting Janikowski with a first round selection, I think he was clearly the best kicker available in the draft, and if you can use your first round pick to draft a guy who will take care of a position for 17 seasons, only missing four games, and be an above average player during that time, I think you did pretty damn well with your selection.

[JohnTurney]

Trung Canidate reminds me of how bad the Rams were at drafting in the early-2000's. They took Canidate over OT Marvel Smith in 2000, Damione Lewis over Marcus Stroud or Steve Hutchinson and Ryan Pickett over Kendrell Bell in 2001 (someone who did a review right after that draft asked "What's a Ryan Pickett?"), and Robert Thomas over Clinton Portis in 2002. That was a big factor in their decline, as was the SB 36 loss to New England. Those days set the franchise on a course to return to LA where they belong.

Oddly, Pickett turned out to be a good player. Unheralded because he was a shade tech but he was decent. He was an "ascending player" something the Rams called guys who were younger than normal draftees by a year or so and they thought were still growing. The others you mention busts. Lewus as drafted to fit a role, a 3-tech..rather than a DT taken based on overall ability...so that is often a disaster. Thomas, Candidate, later Ty Hill, Carreker...so many busts

[JWL]

I guess my point is that grading drafts right after they happen is nonsense, based on 'conventional wisdom' that is baseless in itself.

I found it funny that a guy who publicly has stated he doesn't much watch college sports decided to grade the 2019 draft a couple days ago. Hey, the employer says to grade a draft and make an article out of it, I guess you do it.