First-ballot Hall of Fame

[JohnTurney]

Since none of us will ever be a HOF voter, our views matter little. So technically, a first-ballot Hall of Famer is one who gets in the Hall of Fame on his first year of eligibility.

Some people don't even like that designation, others I have read think there is something to it. I am in the latter group. I do think there are some players whose careers stand out among standouts. And those players should be rewarded with the extra designation of getting in right away.

However, that does not always happen. And sometimes it can happen when a player may not be comparable to others who have previously been inducted on the first ballot.

So, here is a rough outline of what I think causes a player to stand out among stands outs, or is among the best of the best.

I do think being a perennial All-pro is a major component. Two- or three- or even four is not enough. Four, to me, is borderline for most positions but that is no hard and fast rule, for a RB, for example, three can often be enough depending on what they did.

Pro Bowl less important, but if someone isn't going to maybe a 7-8-9 Pro Bowls then I look closely at why.

MVPs, Player of the Year Awards, too. I take a look at them.

I like to look and see if the stats, when available, measure up to previous first-balloters.

I think, in general, longevity is a part. Of all the "Gale Sayers exceptions" we have gotten and will get even more like Boselli, only Sayers was first-ballot and he was 5-time All-Pro, All-5th Anniversary, etc. Sometimes the exceptions proves the rule. So, I think have a lot of good years, apart for the "All-pro years" is something that separates players.

Winning Super Bowls/Championships is also a key thing for some positions and these can mitigate lack of All-pros (Nitschke). TJ would best talk about this but he is not high on Nitschke, thinks he's very good, but not in the Butkus/Schmidt class. But I do question his first ballot status, though I would get reamed for making the case, mostly it's sitting the bench so much, for whatever reason. But his 5 titles...and 3 in a row makes up for it some, but to me, he's a borderline 1st ballot guy. FIlm study shows he was great vs run, and okay versus pass, not great.

Anyway, in my own way I go through these and other "tests" to determine if I think a guy is fitst-ballot worthy. If I was able to see him, which I have for all these recent candidates, my own eye test applies, too. That get tricky because my eye test, or anyone's eye test from this board is also of little value to anyone but himself. I think Bryant Young was a better DT than Warren Sapp. But, so what? Sapp was first-ballot. He got it over Strahan because Sapp was All-Decade (2nd team) in the 1990s and All-Decade in the 2000s. That was a key difference maker.

Is Sapp a 1st ballot HOFer? Yes. Should he have been? Depends who you ask. I say no. A few too many holes in his game in my "eye test".

So, my critera is likely different that others, no one is superior to others in the criteria they like to look at. But in my view, the HOF selection committee is made of humans, humans make mistakes, and there are some guys who should have been 1st ballot that were not and there are some guys who were 1st ballot who should not have been, based on fair comparisons to the standards of the guys who got in.

Joe Schmidt, Night Train, Alan Page to name a few who should be considered top 4 in their positions who were not first-ballot for one reason or another.

So, those are my rantings on this subject.

[conace21]

It's a pretty good analysis. My only issue with it is there are factors in being a first ballot HOF player beyond the player's control....like who he comes up against in his class. Now, there are the Mount Rushmore types- Brady, Barry, Rice, who are first ballot no matter who comes up against them. Then there are players who have the credentials to be first ballot, but whether they can make it on the first ballot depends on who they're up against...and some of that is related to voter imperfections. (E.g. the committee won't elect two defensive ends in on year, and Player X retired the same year as Bruce Smith.)

[JohnTurney]

It's a pretty good analysis. My only issue with it is there are factors in being a first ballot HOF player beyond the player's control....like who he comes up against in his class. Now, there are the Mount Rushmore types- Brady, Barry, Rice, who are first ballot no matter who comes up against them. Then there are players who have the credentials to be first ballot, but whether they can make it on the first ballot depends on who they're up against...and some of that is related to voter imperfections. (E.g. the committee won't elect two defensive ends in on year, and Player X retired the same year as Bruce Smith.)

That is a valid point, it may have happened with Mike Webster. Stephenson was on Final 15 at same time and with Dr Z in the room and pushing for Stephenson they may have canceled each other out, then the net year Webster goes in and then in 1998 Stephenson goes in.

However, I wonder how many of those there are. Compared to questionable first-ballot guys, the ones who got screwed due to the class they were in I think it may be a small group. I hve never really gone though the HOF and counted up guys who should have been first ballot but were not, Webster would be on that list, I think, Page, and some others.

Anyway, you make a good point.

[JohnTurney]

First-ballot some sure nos, some "yes" with a question ?, means debatable. I skipped QBs for another day. Maybe too heated a topic for the board.

Jim Langer** C —No, but a close no
Jim Otto** C —yes
Mel Blount** CB -yes
Willie Brown** CB -yes
Darrell Green** CB -like Jackie Slater, 3 AP, 7 PB in 20 seasons, is that 1st ballot production? No
Deion Sanders** CB -yes
Rod Woodson** CB -yes
Deacon Jones** DE -yes
Gino Marchetti** DE -yes
Bruce Smith** DE -yes
Jason Taylor** DE -No
Reggie White** DE -yes
Joe Greene** DT -yes
Bob Lilly** DT -yes
Merlin Olsen** DT -yes
Warren Sapp** DT -no
Randy White** DT -yes
Larry Allen** G -yes
John Hannah** G -yes
Bruce Matthews** G -yes
Jim Parker** G -yes
Gene Upshaw** G -yes, with the qualifier, no one knew he was considered kind of not that good by other guards, skill-wise? No
Jan Stenerud** K -yes, I guess
Dick Butkus** MLB -yes
Jack Lambert** MLB -yes
Ray Lewis** MLB -yes
Ray Nitschke** MLB -yes, but with some questions. not all that honored, not as good as Schmidt.. but 5 titles, but borderline for sure
Mike Singletary** MLB -yes
Brian Urlacher** MLB -borderline... lean no
Derrick Brooks** OLB -yes, but a couple of ??? on resume
Jack Ham** OLB -yes
Junior Seau OLB -yes
Lawrence Taylor** OLB -yes
Marcus Allen**  RB-no
Jim Brown** RB-yes
Earl Campbell**  RB-yes
Eric Dickerson** RB-yes
Tony Dorsett**  RB-yesm but ???
Marshall Faulk** RB-yes
Ollie Matson** RB-yes
Hugh McElhenny** RB-yes
Walter Payton** RB-yes
Barry Sanders** RB -yes
Gale Sayers** RB -yes
O. J. Simpson** RB -yes
Emmitt Smith** RB -yes
LaDainian Tomlinson** RB -yes
Ken Houston** S -yes
Ronnie Lott** S -yes
Larry Wilson** S -yes
Forrest Gregg** T -yes
Walter Jones ** T -yes
Anthony Muñoz** T -yes
Jonathan Ogden** T -yes
Jackie Slater** T -no
Lance Alworth** WR -yes
Raymond Berry** WR -yes
Steve Largent** WR -yes, but ??
Randy Moss** WR -no
Jerry Rice** WR -yes
Paul Warfield** WR -yes

[Reaser]

First-ballot doesn't matter to me, at all. The HOF barely even matters to me for multiple reasons; the primary being that it goes against what football is, arguably (in my opinion it is) the greatest team sport in the world. Individual honors other than things like teammates voting you a captain are extremely odd, in that sense. Secondly, I think the system of how players are elected is immensely flawed, starting with having media members vote. Then, naturally like anyone else, I think there's players 'in' that shouldn't be or at least wouldn't be in 'my' HOF and there's players not in who should be.

Setting up my on-topic thought on first-ballot. I still wouldn't care but if 'games' weren't played in the election process and every year they elected the best candidates regardless of position or how long they've waited then "first-ballot" would largely take care of itself. Especially if there was a set # (randomly lets say 4) spots every year with no senior pools or special categories. Just the 4 best and most deserving go in, then the next year again the 4 best go in, and so on. That would mean you would have to be Top 4 your first year of eligibility and "first-ballot" may be more meaningful then. Though I'm a "he's in or he's not" thinker. I never think so and so was a 14-ballot HOF'er or so and so was a 3rd-ballot HOF'er. First-ballot is more just something people say on the front end "(insert current player) is a first-ballot HOF'er" rather than on the back-end where the general public doesn't even know who is or isn't in the HOF and certainly couldn't name every HOF'er nor do they likely care -- let alone knowing what ballot players got in on.

All that said, the voting is how it is and exactly what conace said with the various factors and voter imperfections.

Also, seems a bit odd it's such a big deal -at least on our forums- all of a sudden this year, as if Urlacher (and Moss or Lewis) 'broke' "first-ballot". It's been broken (if you care about first-ballot), well before this latest cycle.

[conace21]

I think being 1st ballot became more meaningful in the last 30 years. Look at the players who retired after 1974.
Jim Otto, Bob Lilly, Deacon Jones, Sonny Jorgensen, Bobby Bell. It could be argued that all 5 were worthy of being first ballot material at the time of their induction. Otto, Lilly, and Jones made it 1st ballot; Jurgensen and Bell went in 3 years later. But they were going against guys like Herb Adderley and Willie Davis...and Pete Rozelle.

[Bryan]

I skipped QBs for another day. Maybe too heated a topic for the board.

Don't worry, I brought it up in the Steve Young thread. Go big or go home, Mr. Turney.

[JeffreyMiller]

It's weighted against offensive linemen, since they generally are not going to get MVP or POY or ROY consideration. This would skew the voters toward "skill position" players, who could have a better chance of getting in with two or three All-Pros if they also had a POY and a couple of rushing titles on their resume. Linemen, it would seem, would require more All-Pro selections, and maybe a Super Bowl or two, to get recognition ...

[JWL]

First-ballot doesn't matter to me, at all. The HOF barely even matters to me for multiple reasons; the primary being that it goes against what football is, arguably (in my opinion it is) the greatest team sport in the world.

I have lost interest in the Hall of Fame in recent years. It is just so exhausting after a while.

"This guy is not in yet. Why not? That guy got in and he's better than that guy."
"This guy got in on the first ballot and he's better than that other guy who got in on the third ballot."
"We can't put that guy in the Hall of Fame this year because another guy at his position just got voted in by us 15 minutes ago."

I can't stand any of that stuff.

Then you get all the other arguments about rings and locker room distractions and crimes away from football.

I'm not even into the All-Pro teams too much these days. We all know how flawed those teams are. Khalil Mack made first team at one position and second team at another. Justin Smith and Terrell Suggs get votes at two different positions because nobody can agree on how to classify them.

Then we have Pro Football Focus giving ratings to players. "They have this guy at 87.6. I think he's more like an 84.2."

[Gary Najman]

First-ballot some sure nos, some "yes" with a question ?, means debatable. I skipped QBs for another day. Maybe too heated a topic for the board.

Jim Langer** C —No, but a close no
Jim Otto** C —yes
Mel Blount** CB -yes
Willie Brown** CB -yes
Darrell Green** CB -like Jackie Slater, 3 AP, 7 PB in 20 seasons, is that 1st ballot production? No
Deion Sanders** CB -yes
Rod Woodson** CB -yes
Deacon Jones** DE -yes
Gino Marchetti** DE -yes
Bruce Smith** DE -yes
Jason Taylor** DE -No
Reggie White** DE -yes
Joe Greene** DT -yes
Bob Lilly** DT -yes
Merlin Olsen** DT -yes
Warren Sapp** DT -no
Randy White** DT -yes
Larry Allen** G -yes
John Hannah** G -yes
Bruce Matthews** G -yes
Jim Parker** G -yes
Gene Upshaw** G -yes, with the qualifier, no one knew he was considered kind of not that good by other guards, skill-wise? No
Jan Stenerud** K -yes, I guess
Dick Butkus** MLB -yes
Jack Lambert** MLB -yes
Ray Lewis** MLB -yes
Ray Nitschke** MLB -yes, but with some questions. not all that honored, not as good as Schmidt.. but 5 titles, but borderline for sure
Mike Singletary** MLB -yes
Brian Urlacher** MLB -borderline... lean no
Derrick Brooks** OLB -yes, but a couple of ??? on resume
Jack Ham** OLB -yes
Junior Seau OLB -yes
Lawrence Taylor** OLB -yes
Marcus Allen**  RB-no
Jim Brown** RB-yes
Earl Campbell**  RB-yes
Eric Dickerson** RB-yes
Tony Dorsett**  RB-yesm but ???
Marshall Faulk** RB-yes
Ollie Matson** RB-yes
Hugh McElhenny** RB-yes
Walter Payton** RB-yes
Barry Sanders** RB -yes
Gale Sayers** RB -yes
O. J. Simpson** RB -yes
Emmitt Smith** RB -yes
LaDainian Tomlinson** RB -yes
Ken Houston** S -yes
Ronnie Lott** S -yes
Larry Wilson** S -yes
Forrest Gregg** T -yes
Walter Jones ** T -yes
Anthony Muñoz** T -yes
Jonathan Ogden** T -yes
Jackie Slater** T -no
Lance Alworth** WR -yes
Raymond Berry** WR -yes
Steve Largent** WR -yes, but ??
Randy Moss** WR -no
Jerry Rice** WR -yes
Paul Warfield** WR -yes

And where are the QBs? By the way, I don't consider Troy Aikman (even that I'm Cowboy fan) and Warren Moon as first-ballot, yet they made it together...