QBs who played their best as rookies...reasons?

[Bryan]

I never understood the old purported 'axiom', perhaps put forth by Tex Maule, that it takes 5 years for an NFL QB to 'develop'. If you look at history, if a QB isn't good by their second year of starting, then they typically aren't going to improve after that point. I think part of a QB's "development" is his supporting cast of teammates and coaches...Jared Goff has "developed" this year with the Rams, although I always thought he could throw the ball and had a lot of starting experience in college.

There is a certain logic to a young QB getting 'better' as the team around him acquires more talent and the QB himself becomes more comfortable with an offensive system specifically and playing in the NFL generally. But I am more interested in QBs who had their best seasons as rookies, as that defies logic. I'm not talking about guys like Greg Cook or Robert Griffin III who suffered injuries, I'm talking about guys who continued on as starting NFL QBs but never achieved their rookie season heights.

Dennis Shaw, Buffalo Bills 1970
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... awDe00.htm
Shaw got a big write-up in my "World of Pro Football" book by Mike Rathet ($3.22 on Amazon!) that was written after the 1971 season. The interesting thing is that Shaw wasn't any good in 1971, but the book was still smitten with Shaw's rookie season of 1970. If you look at Shaw's 1970 numbers, they aren't all that impressive. His Rate+ is 100, which is literally 'league average', but Shaw being league average as a rookie is somewhat of an achievement, and those late 60's Bills had some of the worst QB play in NFL/AFL history (Dan Darragh, Ed Rutkowski, etc) so Shaw probably seemed like a breath of fresh air. He played his college ball under Don Coryell at San Diego State, and in 1969 Shaw won the NCAA triple crown of passing yards, comp %, and TDs (Shaw's 39 TDs was significantly more than the 2nd place total of 25). Unfortunately, Shaw never built upon his 1970 success, in spite of the Bills getting better players and better coaches, and in 1973 he lost his starting job to rookie Joe Ferguson, an unheralded 3rd round pick who started every game and threw 4 TDs. In 1974, Coryell traded Ahmad Rashad to 're-acquire' Shaw, but things never really worked out and Shaw's NFL career ended after two years backing up Jim Hart.

Rick Mirer, Seattle Seahawks 1993
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... reRi00.htm
2nd overall pick in the draft behind Drew Bledsoe. I watched many of Mirer's college games at Notre Dame. Perhaps because he was on TV so much, he was a bit overrated coming out of college. Mirer was compared to Joe Montana, but he didn't have anything close to Montana's mobility. What I saw of Mirer in college was a smart QB who wasn't all that athletic. He set all kinds of rookie NFL QB records in 1993 with the Seahawks, but that was the high point as his career dwindled into being a journeyman backup. After regressing for 4 years with Seattle, the Chicago Bears traded a 1st round pick for Mirer, perhaps the most illogical trade in NFL history not involving Gary Cuozzo.

Charlie Conerly, NY Giants 1948
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... neCh00.htm
I guess you can argue that Conerly's 1959 season was 'better', but Conerly's career highs in completions, yards, and TDs all occurred in his rookie year of 1948. Conerly's career is interesting to me because it is so incongruent...some years he'd lead the league in interceptions, other years he'd throw the fewest interceptions...some years he'd complete 55% of his passes, others he'd be in the low 40% range...in 1958 he averaged a low 6.5 YPA, with virtually the same offense in 1959 he led the NFL with 8.8 YPA. I'm not sure if Steve Owen ran more of his 'A' Formation in 1948 and then phased it out in subsequent years. Conerly actually threw more passes in 1949 than in 1948, but was much less successful from an efficiency standpoint.

[Jay Z]

Defenses will always adjust based on films, try to take things away. That's why backups sometimes have initial success when they come off the bench. Then teams figure out the QB can't throw the deep out and start rolling up the coverage.

Another Shaw, George, had a decent rookie year at a tough time to break into the NFL. Then injuries and Johnny Unitas happened. Shaw got some other chances, but it never worked out. Though I'm not sure he was every really that healthy after his rookie year.

[L.C. Greenwood]

I never understood the old purported 'axiom', perhaps put forth by Tex Maule, that it takes 5 years for an NFL QB to 'develop'. If you look at history, if a QB isn't good by their second year of starting, then they typically aren't going to improve after that point. I think part of a QB's "development" is his supporting cast of teammates and coaches...Jared Goff has "developed" this year with the Rams, although I always thought he could throw the ball and had a lot of starting experience in college.

There is a certain logic to a young QB getting 'better' as the team around him acquires more talent and the QB himself becomes more comfortable with an offensive system specifically and playing in the NFL generally. But I am more interested in QBs who had their best seasons as rookies, as that defies logic. I'm not talking about guys like Greg Cook or Robert Griffin III who suffered injuries, I'm talking about guys who continued on as starting NFL QBs but never achieved their rookie season heights.

Dennis Shaw, Buffalo Bills 1970
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... awDe00.htm
Shaw got a big write-up in my "World of Pro Football" book by Mike Rathet ($3.22 on Amazon!) that was written after the 1971 season. The interesting thing is that Shaw wasn't any good in 1971, but the book was still smitten with Shaw's rookie season of 1970. If you look at Shaw's 1970 numbers, they aren't all that impressive. His Rate+ is 100, which is literally 'league average', but Shaw being league average as a rookie is somewhat of an achievement, and those late 60's Bills had some of the worst QB play in NFL/AFL history (Dan Darragh, Ed Rutkowski, etc) so Shaw probably seemed like a breath of fresh air. He played his college ball under Don Coryell at San Diego State, and in 1969 Shaw won the NCAA triple crown of passing yards, comp %, and TDs (Shaw's 39 TDs was significantly more than the 2nd place total of 25). Unfortunately, Shaw never built upon his 1970 success, in spite of the Bills getting better players and better coaches, and in 1973 he lost his starting job to rookie Joe Ferguson, an unheralded 3rd round pick who started every game and threw 4 TDs. In 1974, Coryell traded Ahmad Rashad to 're-acquire' Shaw, but things never really worked out and Shaw's NFL career ended after two years backing up Jim Hart.

Rick Mirer, Seattle Seahawks 1993
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... reRi00.htm
2nd overall pick in the draft behind Drew Bledsoe. I watched many of Mirer's college games at Notre Dame. Perhaps because he was on TV so much, he was a bit overrated coming out of college. Mirer was compared to Joe Montana, but he didn't have anything close to Montana's mobility. What I saw of Mirer in college was a smart QB who wasn't all that athletic. He set all kinds of rookie NFL QB records in 1993 with the Seahawks, but that was the high point as his career dwindled into being a journeyman backup. After regressing for 4 years with Seattle, the Chicago Bears traded a 1st round pick for Mirer, perhaps the most illogical trade in NFL history not involving Gary Cuozzo.

Charlie Conerly, NY Giants 1948
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... neCh00.htm
I guess you can argue that Conerly's 1959 season was 'better', but Conerly's career highs in completions, yards, and TDs all occurred in his rookie year of 1948. Conerly's career is interesting to me because it is so incongruent...some years he'd lead the league in interceptions, other years he'd throw the fewest interceptions...some years he'd complete 55% of his passes, others he'd be in the low 40% range...in 1958 he averaged a low 6.5 YPA, with virtually the same offense in 1959 he led the NFL with 8.8 YPA. I'm not sure if Steve Owen ran more of his 'A' Formation in 1948 and then phased it out in subsequent years. Conerly actually threw more passes in 1949 than in 1948, but was much less successful from an efficiency standpoint.

From what I understand, Mirer's issue was going through progressions, making the correct read. It's one of those reminders that just because someone is book smart, career success isn't guaranteed. I've worked with individuals who either attended big name schools and/or had a high grade point average, but that didn't translate to the career field.

[Jay Z]

It's not quite clear to me what happened to Dennis Shaw. On paper he was about the same as Mike Phipps, John Reaves, and Randy Johnson. A higher draft choice who started for a while, but stuck around for a good while longer as a decent backup.

In 1970 Shaw was certainly ahead of Phipps and Terry Bradshaw, who he was drafted behind. Of course, he did not build on that beachhead in the next two years, and was replaced by Joe Ferguson. Understandably traded as well, clear out the old starter. Bills went to Gary Marangi as backup, who had a couple of moments before playing poorly in extended play in 1976.

Cardinals needed a backup. Hart had been injured at the end of 1973 and Gary Keithley was not very effective. A couple of years they traded John Gilliam for Gary Cuozzo. Now it was Ahmad Rashad for Shaw. Imagine the Cards' passing game if those trades aren't made!

Hart was healthy and effective, and Shaw played very little for two years. In a later interview by Shaw, he would say that the Cardinals traded him to the Giants at this point. That's not what happened. Shaw retired in early July 1976, citing personal reasons. A couple of days later he decided to un-retire. Cards said no thanks, we don't want you any more. Decided to go with Billy Donckers as backup, though Sam Wyche was also on the team for a bit. Donckers had a perfect career of sorts, playing in 6 NFL games, attempting 6 passes, and completing all 6. On the seventh day he must have rested.

It does not sound like the Cardinals were very impressed with what they had seen of Shaw. He was released and signed by the Packers. Cut by the Packers a month later; he couldn't beat out Alan "Bubba" Autry (nee Carlos Brown.) Later that year he went to the Giants to back up Craig Morton and Norm Snead. They were both gone the next year, but Shaw was cut in favor of Joe Pisarcik, Jerry Golsteyn, and Randy Dean. Shaw would get back in the NFL in 1978 with the Chiefs, lasting the whole year with the team but never playing a single down.

I don't know what the deal was with Shaw, maybe he just lost it, couldn't read zones and everyone knew it.

[Bryan]

From what I understand, Mirer's issue was going through progressions, making the correct read. It's one of those reminders that just because someone is book smart, career success isn't guaranteed. I've worked with individuals who either attended big name schools and/or had a high grade point average, but that didn't translate to the career field.

Interesting stuff on Mirer. Thanks for sharing.

[Bryan]

It's not quite clear to me what happened to Dennis Shaw. On paper he was about the same as Mike Phipps, John Reaves, and Randy Johnson. A higher draft choice who started for a while, but stuck around for a good while longer as a decent backup.

In 1970 Shaw was certainly ahead of Phipps and Terry Bradshaw, who he was drafted behind. Of course, he did not build on that beachhead in the next two years, and was replaced by Joe Ferguson. Understandably traded as well, clear out the old starter. Bills went to Gary Marangi as backup, who had a couple of moments before playing poorly in extended play in 1976.

Cardinals needed a backup. Hart had been injured at the end of 1973 and Gary Keithley was not very effective. A couple of years they traded John Gilliam for Gary Cuozzo. Now it was Ahmad Rashad for Shaw. Imagine the Cards' passing game if those trades aren't made!

Hart was healthy and effective, and Shaw played very little for two years. In a later interview by Shaw, he would say that the Cardinals traded him to the Giants at this point. That's not what happened. Shaw retired in early July 1976, citing personal reasons. A couple of days later he decided to un-retire. Cards said no thanks, we don't want you any more. Decided to go with Billy Donckers as backup, though Sam Wyche was also on the team for a bit. Donckers had a perfect career of sorts, playing in 6 NFL games, attempting 6 passes, and completing all 6. On the seventh day he must have rested.

It does not sound like the Cardinals were very impressed with what they had seen of Shaw. He was released and signed by the Packers. Cut by the Packers a month later; he couldn't beat out Alan "Bubba" Autry (nee Carlos Brown.) Later that year he went to the Giants to back up Craig Morton and Norm Snead. They were both gone the next year, but Shaw was cut in favor of Joe Pisarcik, Jerry Golsteyn, and Randy Dean. Shaw would get back in the NFL in 1978 with the Chiefs, lasting the whole year with the team but never playing a single down.

I don't know what the deal was with Shaw, maybe he just lost it, couldn't read zones and everyone knew it.

Thanks for the information. I love the PFR site, but it does a poor job in tracking the careers of vagabond backup QBs like Shaw. Its interesting that he was good enough to hang around in the NFL through 1978, but not good enough to play or really be part of a team's long-term plan.

[Throwin_Samoan]

Didn't Maule say that, like, forever ago?

It absolutely is true now that you don't have the luxury of a five-year apprenticeship (and the elite college programs prepare guys better for the NFL game today). But it was certainly the thought back in the day.

[conace21]

In the NFLN feature "Top 10 Draft Busts," someone mentioned that defenses found our that Mirer struggled throwing to his left, so naturally they adjusted to force him to throw to his left.

Mirer won ROY in 1993, and he wasn't too bad in 1994, although he didn't explode like Bledsoe did. But he regressed badly each of the next three years. In 1997, it all bottomed out. The Bears scored 6 points.... two field goal drives in 12 quarters under Mirer after he took over for Erik Kramer. (He replaced Kramer just after halftime in Week 3, started 2 full games, and was benched at halftime in his 3rd start.)

He got another chance in 1999 replacing Vinny Testaverde. He didn't struggle as badly, but it was still night and day between him and Ray Lucas. Judging by the way Lucas' career turned out, it's safe to say Lucas was an average QB who took advantage of strong skill position players. Mirer couldn't even do that.

[SixtiesFan]

It's not quite clear to me what happened to Dennis Shaw. On paper he was about the same as Mike Phipps, John Reaves, and Randy Johnson. A higher draft choice who started for a while, but stuck around for a good while longer as a decent backup.

In 1970 Shaw was certainly ahead of Phipps and Terry Bradshaw, who he was drafted behind. Of course, he did not build on that beachhead in the next two years, and was replaced by Joe Ferguson. Understandably traded as well, clear out the old starter. Bills went to Gary Marangi as backup, who had a couple of moments before playing poorly in extended play in 1976.

Cardinals needed a backup. Hart had been injured at the end of 1973 and Gary Keithley was not very effective. A couple of years they traded John Gilliam for Gary Cuozzo. Now it was Ahmad Rashad for Shaw. Imagine the Cards' passing game if those trades aren't made!

Hart was healthy and effective, and Shaw played very little for two years. In a later interview by Shaw, he would say that the Cardinals traded him to the Giants at this point. That's not what happened. Shaw retired in early July 1976, citing personal reasons. A couple of days later he decided to un-retire. Cards said no thanks, we don't want you any more. Decided to go with Billy Donckers as backup, though Sam Wyche was also on the team for a bit. Donckers had a perfect career of sorts, playing in 6 NFL games, attempting 6 passes, and completing all 6. On the seventh day he must have rested.

It does not sound like the Cardinals were very impressed with what they had seen of Shaw. He was released and signed by the Packers. Cut by the Packers a month later; he couldn't beat out Alan "Bubba" Autry (nee Carlos Brown.) Later that year he went to the Giants to back up Craig Morton and Norm Snead. They were both gone the next year, but Shaw was cut in favor of Joe Pisarcik, Jerry Golsteyn, and Randy Dean. Shaw would get back in the NFL in 1978 with the Chiefs, lasting the whole year with the team but never playing a single down.

I don't know what the deal was with Shaw, maybe he just lost it, couldn't read zones and everyone knew it.

Thanks for the information. I love the PFR site, but it does a poor job in tracking the careers of vagabond backup QBs like Shaw. Its interesting that he was good enough to hang around in the NFL through 1978, but not good enough to play or really be part of a team's long-term plan.

I read several news stories on the Bills and a couple of quickie books on O.J. during this period. Regarding Dennis Shaw, he "began to lose the respect of his teammates" in early 1971 according to one of the O.J. books. In his Sporting News column, Larry Felser wrote that Shaw had fair stats in 1972 but "played poorly in half the games," causing the Bills coaching staff to wonder if Shaw was good enough to win with.

The Bills considered drafting Bert Jones if available on the first round in the 1973 draft, but he wasn't. When Joe Ferguson (who had a sub-par senior season or he would have gone in the first) was still on the board, they took him in the third round. In training camp and preseason games, Ferguson looked very good (better pure thrower than Shaw) and the Bills decided to make him the starter.

The Bills plan for the 1973 season was to play Joe Ferguson at QB while running O.J. Simpson 25-30 times a game. This way Ferguson could get experience without too much pressure on him and be a long-term solution at QB while O.J. ran up a humongous rushing total. As it turned out, O.J. set a record with 2003 yards and the Bills went 9-5.

Funny thing, the 1973 Bills had their pre-season strategy work as well as could have been expected.

[sluggermatt15]

Great thread.

A recent example that comes to mind is Robert Griffin III. 2012 was his best statistical season with the Redskins, then, it all went downhill from there.