Surprise Teams and Cinderella Teams and how to spot them.

[Rupert Patrick]

With the Rams coming out of nowhere this season (I honestly thought the two worst teams going into this season would be the Rams and Bears), I got to thinking a lot about Cinderella teams and just how many of them there really are in pro football history, and more importantly, how to spot them. In the final edits for my manuscript, I threw in a small piece about the difference between a surprise team and a Cinderella team, and a quick way to spot them, and how to distinguish between them, and this is pretty much what I wrote there:

I came up with two very simple rules for defining a Cinderella team:

1 – The team in question must have had a below .500 record in each of the previous three seasons.
2 – The team in question must have reached at least a league (pre-Super Bowl) or conference championship game in the season in question.

If the team achieves parts one and two, the team is a Cinderella team. if the team achieves the first part and make the playoffs but come up short of the second part, they qualify as a surprise team.

For example, the 2017 Rams have been below .500 in each of the previous three seasons (2014-2016). If they make the playoffs this year but do not make it to the NFC Championship game, they are a surprise team. If they make the playoffs and go at least as far as the NFC Championship game, they are a Cinderella team.

From 1933 to present, I found a total of 43 teams who made the postseason after having not been had a .5000 or better season in any of the previous three seasons, either surprise teams or Cinderella teams. To this list, I have added three teams and one with an asterisk, the 1970 Bengals, who won the AFC Central in their third season of existence (they were below .5000 in their first two seasons) and the 1996 Panthers and Jaguars, who made the playoffs in their second season after finishing below .5000 in their inaugural season. The asterisk is for the 1945 Cleveland Rams, who suspended operations for the 1943 season, and I skipped over the 1943 season and they were below .5000 in 1941, 1942 and 1944.

Of these 46 team-seasons, eleven of them lost the wild-card game: the 1978 Eagles, 1982 Cards, 1987 Saints, 1994 Patriots, 1995 Falcons, 2002 Browns, 2003 Cowboys, 2010 Chiefs, 2011 Lions, and 2016 Raiders and Giants.

Of the remaining 35 team-seasons, 22 of them would lose in the divisional playoff game. These teams would include the 1970 Bengals and Dolphins, 1974 Cardinals, 1975 Colts, 1980 Bills, 1981 Giants, 1987 Colts and Oilers, 1988 Eagles, 1991 Falcons and Cowboys, 1992 Chargers, 1994 Browns, 1997 Bucs, 1998 Cards, 2000 Saints and Eagles, 2001 Bears, 2002 Falcons, 2005 Bears, 2012 Seahawks and 2013 Panthers.

The 13 team-seasons that remain are the Cinderella teams, according to my definition. Of them, eight of them lost the league conference championship game, they include the 1967 Oilers, 1972 Steelers, 1979 Bucs, 1983 Seahawks, 1988 Bills, 1991 Lions, and the 1996 Jaguars and Panthers.

Five teams are left, and two of them lost the Super Bowl – the 1981 Bengals and 2003 Panthers. The three teams left standing are the three Cinderella teams who won league Championship or the Super Bowl: they are the 1945 Cleveland Rams, 1981 San Francisco 49ers and 1999 St. Louis Rams.

If you look at all 13 Cinderella teams, there was some key player or players, or a missing piece, or in the case of the 1991 Lions, the Mike Utley injury that galvanized the team. Two of the greatest dynasties ever (70’s Steelers, 80’s 49ers) started as Cinderella teams. Another notable dynasty, the Kelly-Thomas-Levy Bills, gelled as a Cinderella team, in the rookie season of Thurman Thomas. It is interesting that only two of them were true one-year wonders, the 1945 Rams and 1996 Panthers, in that neither made the postseason in the following three seasons.

The odds of a Cinderella team according to the criteria I established are about 150 to one. The odds of a surprise team are about 42 to one.

I do feel confident that I found the two Super Bowl winners who were true Cinderella teams, the 1981 49ers and 1999 Rams. Both were shockers and the odds against them winning the Super Bowl before the season must have been astronomical.

These are teams that literally came out of nowhere, teams that nobody saw coming, although some may have seen the talent that was building up in Pittsburgh under Chuck Noll and in Buffalo under Marv Levy and knew that sooner or later they were going to come together.

Are there other criteria to look at in searching for Cinderella teams? I went into this thinking the odds of a Cinderella team were about 200 to one, so I think I got about the right number of teams.

[7DnBrnc53]

I do feel confident that I found the two Super Bowl winners who were true Cinderella teams, the 1981 49ers and 1999 Rams. Both were shockers and the odds against them winning the Super Bowl before the season must have been astronomical.

These are teams that literally came out of nowhere, teams that nobody saw coming

On the subject of the 1981 49ers, one book I have from that year said that they were a team on the upswing (but didn't have the talent to challenge for a SB). 8-8 would probably have been a good prediction for them going into that year (they were 6-10 in 1980 after only winning two games in 1979). However, getting a defense practically overnight (Hacksaw, Lott, Wright, Williamson, Dean) accelerated their improvement.

As for the 1999 Rams, I remember seeing a prediction of 6-10 in one preview (Pro Football Weekly, I think). Miami and Minnesota were the picks by a lot of people for the SB that year.

although some may have seen the talent that was building up in Pittsburgh under Chuck Noll and in Buffalo under Marv Levy and knew that sooner or later they were going to come together.

Good point. You can also say that about the early-90's Cowboys.

I have a question, though: What would you call the 2001 Patriots, if they aren't a Cinderella team? That team wasn't picked to do jack that year. Mel Kiper said that they would go 0-16.

[Rupert Patrick]

I do feel confident that I found the two Super Bowl winners who were true Cinderella teams, the 1981 49ers and 1999 Rams. Both were shockers and the odds against them winning the Super Bowl before the season must have been astronomical.

These are teams that literally came out of nowhere, teams that nobody saw coming

On the subject of the 1981 49ers, one book I have from that year said that they were a team on the upswing (but didn't have the talent to challenge for a SB). 8-8 would probably have been a good prediction for them going into that year (they were 6-10 in 1980 after only winning two games in 1979). However, getting a defense practically overnight (Hacksaw, Lott, Wright, Williamson, Dean) accelerated their improvement.

As for the 1999 Rams, I remember seeing a prediction of 6-10 in one preview (Pro Football Weekly, I think). Miami and Minnesota were the picks by a lot of people for the SB that year.

although some may have seen the talent that was building up in Pittsburgh under Chuck Noll and in Buffalo under Marv Levy and knew that sooner or later they were going to come together.

Good point. You can also say that about the early-90's Cowboys.

I have a question, though: What would you call the 2001 Patriots, if they aren't a Cinderella team? That team wasn't picked to do jack that year. Mel Kiper said that they would go 0-16.

The one thing I put in the manuscript but left in the book was a chart of the 13 Cinderella teams, listing their winning percentage in the three years before the season in question, and the three years after the season in question, and the key people/persons who showed up on the scene who were probably most responsible for the turnaround. For the 1981 49ers, I listed Ronnie Lott and Hacksaw Reynolds. I think Lott was very important as a rookie who had a HOF career ahead of him and was vital to the team, and Reynolds was a veteran with a lot of playoff experience who quickly became a defensive leader. By the way, I also had the 1981 Bengals as another one of the 13 Cinderella teams.

I had the 1991 Cowboys listed as a surprise team, as they went to the divisional playoffs and lost to Detroit. They were a team who was building an awful lot of talent.

The 2001 Patriots barely did not meet the criteria as they were 9-7 in 1998 and were a wild card, losing to Jacksonville 25-10. Going into the 2001 season I thought the Pats were going to be among the 2-3 worst teams.

Nor were the 1968 Jets a Cinderella team as they were 8-5-1 during the 1967 season and were .500 during the 1966 season.

One team I thought for sure would be a Cinderella team was the 1947 Chicago Cardinals, especially after the 1944 0-10 Card-Pitt debacle and finishing 1-9 in 1945. However, they went 6-5 in 1946.

Even the 1960 Packers were not a Cinderella team as they went 7-5 in Lombardi's first season in 1959.

Another Cinderella team was the 2003 Panthers, who came pretty close to upsetting the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVIII. Two years earlier they went 1-15, but in 2003, Jake Delhomme and Stephen Davis showed up and the team quickly came together.

One Cinderella team that very nearly wound up in the Super Bowl was the 1979 Bucs. I don't think there was any real new talent who came on hand in 1979 that was the missing piece, I think it was a very good defense that jelled and they barely won a weak division.

There were a couple teams that qualify as Cinderella teams that were weak teams that pulled upsets to get to the Championship game. I am talking about the 1983 Seahawks and 1996 Jaguars.

The 1996 Panthers were a strong team, sweeping the 49ers and finishing 12-4, beating Dallas in the divisional round before losing in Green Bay for the NFC title. They proved to be a one-year wonder, however.

The 1967 Oilers were another Cinderella team, and most of their improvement was defensive.

The final ones were two of the Rams NFL champions, 1945 and 1999, and both times it was a new QB who led them there - Bob Waterfield in 1945 and Kurt Warner in 1999. The 1999 Rams were also helped considerably by the trade for Marshall Faulk.

[MarbleEye]

They don't meet your criteria for a Cinderella team but the 1980 Oakland Raiders were picked by most in the pre-season to finish last. They started out 2-3 with new QB Dan Pastorini (after trading Ken Stabler over to the Oilers) who then went down for the season with an injury. The Raiders then turned to a QB considered to be a major bust at that time, Jim Plunkett.

With everyone writing them off, Plunkett led them to a 9-2 finish, to end 11-5. They lost the division tiebreaker to the Chargers and got a wild card spot. Playing 3 playoff games on the road, they swept the Oilers (20-7 from memory) the original "real" Browns 14-12 (One of the coldest games in NFL history at the old Cleveland Stadium on Lake Erie in January) and then topped the Chargers (34-27 from memory) in the AFC title game. I don't think they were favored in any of these games, might have been against Houston.

3 point underdogs to the Eagles in the Super Bowl, they cruised to a 27-10 win and a very unlikely Super Bowl Title. The next season they finished 7-9. I thought this team deserved a mention, official Cinderella or not; they were a most unlikely NFL Champion.

[conace21]

It is interesting that only two of them were true one-year wonders, the 1945 Rams and 2003 Panthers, in that neither made the postseason in the following three seasons.

The Panthers actually made the playoffs in 2005. Looks like the 1945 Rams were the closest Cinderella came to being a 1 year wonder. The Rams won the first of three straight division titles four years after their Cinderella season, but those teams were significantly different from the 1945 team...except for Bob Waterfield.

[Rupert Patrick]

It is interesting that only two of them were true one-year wonders, the 1945 Rams and 2003 Panthers, in that neither made the postseason in the following three seasons.

The Panthers actually made the playoffs in 2005. Looks like the 1945 Rams were the closest Cinderella came to being a 1 year wonder. The Rams won the first of three straight division titles four years after their Cinderella season, but those teams were significantly different from the 1945 team...except for Bob Waterfield.

I stand corrected, I meant the 1996 Panthers, not the 2003 Panthers. Both the 1996 and 2003 Panthers were Cinderella teams. I made an exception for the 1996 Panthers and Jaguars as second year expansion teams.

[74_75_78_79_]

Not going by your definition of a ‘surprise’ team, Rupert, myself and most of us in-general didn’t see ’91 Cowboys as a surprise. If not for Aikman’s injury in penultimate game at Eagles a year earlier (enter the Babe), they likely beat Atl in finale to not only finish 8-8 (thus disqualifying ’91 from ‘surprise’ by your definition) but actually make playoffs instead of Saints who they beat in Wk13 (off to Chicago). Honestly, upon the Herschel trade, I knew they were going to get great, and get great real quick. I could hardly enjoy the 1-15 campaign. When Jimmy confidently said after that Turkey Day massacre to Philly that “our day will come”, I truly did believe it.

Yes, ’01 Pats can’t qualify thanks to ’98 but do remember...they started 6-2 in ’99 (Carroll still at helm)! What a ‘long’ two years later it was - the first Title of this still ongoing Belichick/Brady Era.

Back to ’91 Boys...the REAL surprise, I would imagine, is they getting totally doused at Detroit in the divisionals. They already suffered such that regular season, Lions nothing real special, so ‘revenge’ perhaps? Obviously not so. They at Wash in the NFCC - who they beat at that very spot with Beuerlein in Wk13 - an all-but-definite much better match; not that it says much, but still...

[JWL]

As for the 1999 Rams, I remember seeing a prediction of 6-10 in one preview (Pro Football Weekly, I think). Miami and Minnesota were the picks by a lot of people for the SB that year.

I thought the Rams would go 10-6 that year. Then Trent Green got injured and I thought, "Well, so much for that prediction."

[Todd Pence]

The 1977 Broncos are considered one of the greatest Cinderella teams of all time. But by your criteria, they are disqualified since they had a winning record the year before at 9-5. The winning slate, only the second in franchise history, did not earn them a playoff berth and indeed was actually considered a failure at the time. As one Broncos player put it "The worst we could have done with that schedule was 9-5."

[Jay Z]

Not to pick on Rupert, but I think I would have used a formula rather than the rigid criteria approach. The 1972 Packers are another team that would seem to qualify as a surprise team, with some obvious weaknesses and no follow-up at all. Yet they're out of consideration, because of a 8-6 record three years earlier.