Best First Half Early Season Mirage Teams

[Ronfitch]

1978 Packers: 7-2 and two games ahead of Vikes. Go 1-5-1 the rest of the way.

In the run to the Packers' 7-2 record, the combined record of opponents going into their game with Green Bay was 16-20. Only the Saints (1-0 when the met the Packers in week two) and the Bears (3-2 when facing the 4-1 Packers in week six) had winning records at game time.

And the division title still came down to the tie-breaker. Both the Packers and the Vikings finished 8-7-1, with the Vikings taking the first matchup and the two tying 10-10 in the second matchup of the season.

[74_75_78_79_]

How about Todd Kinchen's 1995 Rams in their first season in StL? Four long years before 'Greatest Show'. Open the year winning at GB en route to 4-0/5-1 start. Then SF comes to town and you know how it went (as well as that 2nd affair against them; 23-85 combined final score in both defeats).

[conace21]

The 1986 Jets stick out to me. I thought they looked real good at 10-1 but they looked horrible losing their last 5 games.

Pretty incredible team. As you said, not only did they lose their last 5, they lost badly. 45-3, 45-24, 52-21 to teams that didn't even make the postseason.

I do like using the 1986 Jets as a 'case study' when the issue of "building momentum for the playoffs" or "which is the hot team going into the postseason" is mentioned. The Jets were possibly the 'coldest' playoff participant in NFL history, yet they still won their first game, and should have defeated Cleveland on the road in their divisional round game.

I would like to nominate the 1999 Back-in Bowl participants...the Seahawks (8-2 to 9-7) and the Dolphins (8-2 to 9-7).

The 1999 Patriots also deserve a spot. They were 6-2, and Drew Bledsoe was having his best season. I thought he was going to make the leap from Pro Bowler to All Pro (aside from Warner's magical season.) Their only losses came on a Vinatieri miss and a Damon Huard(?) comeback.
Instead....2-6 to even out the year at 8-8. Bledsoe was taking sacks and turning the ball over and his career was pretty much all downhill from the halfway point of 1999... except for a brief renaissance with Buffalo in 2002.

[74_75_78_79_]

With the current Ditka thread going on, it's a surprise '89 Bears haven't been mentioned yet. Shutting down Cincy in opener then destroying Burnsie's Vikes, 38-7, (beating Detroit) and then convincingly beating Eagles on MNF in Week #4 would have led many to believe they were on their way to a better season than last year; or even '86. Then they allow 42 to Tampa in a loss, lose at home to Houston (infamous "we stink" Ditka press conference), then getting belted at Cleveland MNF (now 4-3) and bottom falls out! Would only win two more games rest of season.

[Todd Pence]

1993 Dolphins were the first that came to mind when I saw this thread. 9-2 start only to collapse and have the table run on them in the last five.

1981 Vikings included wins over then-powers Philadelphia and San Diego in the early part of the schedule to go 5-2, they won just twice the rest of the year and also dropped their last five.

[Evan]

Here's a list we compiled in the Forum a few years back:

Among the great collapses in NFL history:
1960 Colts – Started 6-2, finished 6-6
1963 Browns – Started 6-0, finished 8-4
1968 Giants – Started 7-3, finished 7-7
1971 Raiders – Started 7-1-2, finished 8-4-2 and out of the playoffs
1971 Bears – Started 5-2, finished 6-8
1974 Patriots – Started 6-1, finished 7-7 and out of the playoffs
1974 Bengals – Started 6-3, finished 7-7
1976 49ers – Started 6-1, finished 8-6 and out of the playoffs
1977 Cardinals – Started 7-3, finished 7-7
1978 Redskins – Started 6-0, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs
1981 Vikings – Started 7-4 with a two-game lead in the NFC Central, lost last five games to finish 7-9
1983 Vikings – Started 6-2, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs
1986 Cowboys – Started 6-2, finished 7-9 and out of the playoffs
1986 Jets – Started 10-1 before Paul Maguire famously predicted they wouldn’t win another game. The Jets then lost their last five games by an average of 24 points per game to finish 10-6, before regrouping to beat Kansas City in a first-round playoff game before losing at Cleveland.
1987 Chargers – Started 8-1, finished 8-7 and out of the playoffs. Lost last six games by an average of 17 points per game.
1989 Bears – Started 4-0, finished 6-10 and out of the playoffs
1992 Broncos – Started 7-3, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs
1993 Saints – Started 5-0, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs
1993 Dolphins – Started 9-2, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
1994 Eagles – Started 7-2, finished 7-9
1995 Raiders – Started 8-2, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs
1996 Redskins – Started 7-1, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
2001 Chargers – Started 5-2, lost last nine to finish 5-11
2002 Saints – Started 9-4, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
2003 Vikings – Started 6-0, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
2006 Broncos – Started 7-2, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
2008 Jets – Started 8-3, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
2008 Broncos – Started 8-5, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs
2008 Buccaneers – Started 9-3, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
2009 Broncos – Started 6-0, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs.
2009 Giants – Started 5-0, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs

[Mark L. Ford]

In their first season (1960) the Denver Broncos were 4-2-0 and were leading the AFL's Western Division-- they never won another game that year and finished at 4-9-1.

[7DnBrnc53]

In their first season (1960) the Denver Broncos were 4-2-0 and were leading the AFL's Western Division-- they never won another game that year and finished at 4-9-1.

The 1962 and 1970 Broncos also got off to good starts before fading.

In 62, the Broncos started 7-2 before dropping their final five games (including both to the eventual AFL champion Texans).

In 70, the Broncos began 4-1 (including a 26-13 win at home in Week 3 over the defending champion Chiefs) before finishing 1-7-1 to end the year 5-8-1.

[conace21]

Here's a list we compiled in the Forum a few years back:

Among the great collapses in NFL history:
1960 Colts – Started 6-2, finished 6-6
1963 Browns – Started 6-0, finished 8-4
1968 Giants – Started 7-3, finished 7-7
1971 Raiders – Started 7-1-2, finished 8-4-2 and out of the playoffs
1971 Bears – Started 5-2, finished 6-8
1974 Patriots – Started 6-1, finished 7-7 and out of the playoffs
1974 Bengals – Started 6-3, finished 7-7
1976 49ers – Started 6-1, finished 8-6 and out of the playoffs
1977 Cardinals – Started 7-3, finished 7-7
1978 Redskins – Started 6-0, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs
1981 Vikings – Started 7-4 with a two-game lead in the NFC Central, lost last five games to finish 7-9
1983 Vikings – Started 6-2, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs
1986 Cowboys – Started 6-2, finished 7-9 and out of the playoffs
1986 Jets – Started 10-1 before Paul Maguire famously predicted they wouldn’t win another game. The Jets then lost their last five games by an average of 24 points per game to finish 10-6, before regrouping to beat Kansas City in a first-round playoff game before losing at Cleveland.
1987 Chargers – Started 8-1, finished 8-7 and out of the playoffs. Lost last six games by an average of 17 points per game.
1989 Bears – Started 4-0, finished 6-10 and out of the playoffs
1992 Broncos – Started 7-3, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs
1993 Saints – Started 5-0, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs
1993 Dolphins – Started 9-2, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
1994 Eagles – Started 7-2, finished 7-9
1995 Raiders – Started 8-2, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs
1996 Redskins – Started 7-1, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
2001 Chargers – Started 5-2, lost last nine to finish 5-11
2002 Saints – Started 9-4, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
2003 Vikings – Started 6-0, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
2006 Broncos – Started 7-2, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
2008 Jets – Started 8-3, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
2008 Broncos – Started 8-5, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs
2008 Buccaneers – Started 9-3, finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs
2009 Broncos – Started 6-0, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs.
2009 Giants – Started 5-0, finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs

Very comprehensive list, but I wouldn't call all of these teams mirages. Mirage implies that the team was not as good as they appeared to be in the beginning of the seaaon. But some of these collapses are directly attributable to a key injury...or injuries.

The 1986 Cowboys collapsed after they lost their starting QB, Danny White.

1992 Broncos finished 1-5, with Tommy Maddox going 0-4 in that stretch.

The 2008 Jets collapsed when their starting QB injured his shoulder and kept playing...even though his play was costing the team games.

The 1993 Dolphins finished 0-5 with their second and third string QB's, so it could be argued they were not a mirage. However, I'll note that after Marino started 4-1 before his injury, Scott Mitchell went 3-1, and Steve DeBerg won two in a row to bring their record to 9-2. Then DeBerg lost two in a row, and Mitchell came back to lose the last 3 games of the year. So while the team probably wouldn't have finished 0-5 down the stretch with Marino playing, they didn't just collapse immediately after his injury.

The 1995 Raiders are similar. They lost their last 6. Jeff Hostetler, Vince Evans, and Billy Joe Hobert each lost two games in the streak. Of course, the team's worst lost of the year was a Hostetler start in Game 15, a 44-10 thrashing in Seattle.

[ChrisBabcock]

This one's a stretch, but the 1975 Bills came to mind. Started 4-0 with wins over playoff teams Colts and the Steelers. It probably looked like they were going to take the next step after the previous year's playoff appearance. Orenthal had 697 rushing yards and 5 TDs in those 4 games. The defense was horrendous that year though. More recently the 2008 Bills started 4-0 and 5-1 but fell to 7-9 by the end of the year. The teams they beat in that 4 game winning streak finished a combined 16-48 though.