bachslunch wrote:But there are things I like about it, too. Like you, I like the breakdown into small/medium/large chunks of career (4/7/10) in his case.
I would use 3 as the beginning, 7 and 10 are fine. Though if I started with 3, then 6 and 9 would probably make more sense.
And I really like that the results don't look like they came out of left field.
This is where I'm not as quick to jump in. Putting aside what I think about stats in football, in general.
It seems as if almost all 'advanced stats' are born out of the same foundation.
(at this point I'm not speaking specifically of the stat he came up with) ...
Play with, combine and manipulate numbers long enough until the final number you come up with produces a list that on the surface is reasonably "in order" (from what's obvious / e.g. a list with Montana at #1) ... The problem is (insert 'new' stat) doesn't predict future success, isn't applicable to much of anything and is solely backwards thinking - as in the result dictates the formula. Rather than someone (and I don't think this is possibly in football, because I don't believe stats do a very good job at all of explaining football) comes up with a brilliant 'advanced stat' THEN applies it to players/units/teams/etc. and lets the result be the result. That doesn't happen because there isn't a brilliant 'advanced player stat' and more importantly, the result wouldn't "make sense".
It's not how 'this' all works. It's toy with it until the order makes some sort of reasonable sense. Then present it to the public as something meaningful while explaining away the 'anomalies' ("why is Player A so high on the list?") as if they don't matter. The final step is the dumbing down of the collective.
Sabermetric thinking in baseball undergoes an ongoing process of refinement.
Which is fine, but the major difference is that baseball isn't football. One sport - being basic about it - has stats explain what happened fairly clearly. The other sport is football.
That said, the more people talking about and interested in football, the better. I have zero problem with 'trying'. My issue is always on the back end, when and how people use stats (out of context, with no context, as definitive statements, etc.) ...